In the early months of 2000, Madagascar was faced with a severe cyclone that would directly and indirectly affect the way of life in the country. The storm named ‘Gloria’ was responsible for displacing more than one half of a million citizens at a cost of $3.6 million. It’s needless to say that the vanilla crops took very serious damage from this storm. The destruction of the vanilla crops may have had the far worse lasting effects as opposed to the damage caused by the storm as far as human lives are concerned. Hundreds of thousands lost their homes, about one thousand people were injured, and a number near 200 were killed. But that was nothing compared to the terror that would ensue.
The storm combined with ongoing political conflict (namely a civil war), the vanilla business has become very dangerous in Madagascar in recent years. It has been reported that families involved in the vanilla trade have been targeted by criminals on a regular basis. The reward to a thief for stealing vanilla has gotten so high that many vanilla farmers are sleeping with guns by their beds, if they sleep at all.
This has obviously had a very negative effect on the vanilla business in Madagascar. And since 70% of the world’s vanilla originates in Madagascar, this sort of disruption in the trade could be devastating to worldwide business. If it continues along that sort of path, it is very possible many companies will resort to vanilla substitutes to true vanilla, a course of action that may be irreversible, or at least not economically feasible to turn back from.
This in of itself brings up several concerns. It is known that coumarin, a substance the looks, smells, and tastes like real vanilla, is a carcinogen. It is very possible that any other vanilla-like substances have similar effects. If this is the case, then a prolonged shortage of vanilla could cause long term illness. And with the possibility of more cyclones, the entire industry would fail.
The vanilla beans are usually allowed to mature for 2 to 3 years before being used, meaning it would take at least that long for new beans to grow and replace those lost to the weather. This reduced amount would be further shortened from the crime that would ensue. If vanilla companies put less money into the community, more people resort to crime, and thusly would steal from the wealthiest people around, those being the vanilla farmers.
The seemingly best solution would be for the government of Madagascar to put regulations on the vanilla trade and provide support as far as protection from the vanilla smugglers is concerned. It is a difficult situation because the status of the problem is closely related to fluctuations in the economy and the weather, the two most unpredictable forces in the world.

References

“History of Vanilla.” http://www.nielsenmassey.com/historyofvanilla.htm. Nielson Massey Vanillas Inc.

“Issues: Info.” http://www.edenfoods.com/issues_whatsnew_vanilla.html. 2004. Eden Foods.

“Madagascar’s Vanilla Crops Ravaged by Storms.” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/708469.stm. 2000. BBC News|Africa.

“Madagascar is Well Known for Its Exotic Species, Particularly Its Vanilla.” http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3198995.stm. 2003. BBC News|Africa.

“Vanilla Crack Threatens Madagascar, Comoros.” http://www.afrol.com/articles/13754. afrol News.

“Vanilla, Safron Imports.” http://saffron.com/vanhistory.html. 2001. Safron Imports.