Week 11 Notes

Playoff Picture so far:

 

NFL - The Rynos magic number (any combination off Ryno wins or StiffArm losses) is 2.  The StiffArms must win every single game AND the Rynos must lose every single game for the StiffArms to win the division.  The Marauders and Chargers are eliminated.

CFL  - The Assassins magic number is 2.  Botth KH and the JYDs need to win 3 more games than the Assassins (i.e. they need to go at least 3-1 while needing the Assassins to go 1-3).  The PhatBacks are eliminated.

XFL - The Hooligans' magic number is 4.  SDS and the Hitmen need to win 2 more games than the Hooligans (i.e. they need the Hooligans to go 1-3 while each going 3-1).  SDS and the Hitmen face each other twice in the last four weeks, meaning if one team wins both games, they will probably win the division (if the Hooligans lose 3).  If they split, and the Hooligans lose 2, then the highest scoring team will win.  Quiet Storm is eliminated.

 

Wildcard - Ketchup Hotdog is currently the leader oveer the next group.  However, if the Assassins or Hooligans do not win their division, both those teams are in an excellent position to take the wildcard.

The next group in the wildcard is made up of teams about 30-50 points behind Ketchup Hotdog, and includes the StiffArms, SmackDownSister, the Hitmen and the JYDs.  That works out to only about 10 points a week. 

 

I expect all other teams are too far out to make it back into the running, although the PhatBacks and the Chargers are long shots to make it as the wildcard team.


As the playoff spots clear up, I will begin updating the playoff tree (you can see that through the Standings link).

 

Week 11 Match-ups

Hitmen (5-5) vs. SmackDownSister (5-5)
***Matchup of the week***  Big game for both teams coming off wins who are tied going into the last few weeks of the season.  Whoever loses this game will have a tough climb to make it into the playoffs.  The Hitmen got some great luck with Priest Holms expected to miss another week, but with KC up against the New England Defense, Derrick Blaylock may not see much running room.  SmackDownSister has some great match-ups, including games where Domanick Davis plays against the porous Green Bay Defense, but with the Chicago Bears defense up against the Colts, they may be looking for another defense for this week.

Marauders (3-7) vs. StiffArms (6-4)
This game is about pride for the Marauders, but the StiffArms need to run up as much scoring as possible to keep their playoff hopes alive.  This will be a tough week for the Marauders as they must chose between Edge James (the Colts have abandoned the running game as a method of scoring), Michael Pittman (who is facing the weak San Fran defense), and Ahman Green who is up against a top-15 Houston run defense.   The StiffArms will work their mojo and invoke the Power of the Ring (just like this guy did) to bring all opposition to their knees.  However, we all know where the Power of the Ring will lead.....
Chargers (4-6) vs. Rynos (9-1)
The Chargers are looking to get a good seeding in the next round, and will have to win a few games and up their scoring to get there.  They can expect a solid game from Joey Harrington who is playing against a weak Minnesota defense, and with Deuce McCalister revitalized may be able to put up some good points.  The Rynos need 2 more wins (or a win & a StiffArm loss) to clinch the NFL, but they are looking for the points award as well so want to get as much scoring out of Tom Brady (vs. KC) who should be able to throw for about 600 yards and 8 touchdowns against that defense.
Assassins (8-2) vs. JYDs (5-5)

This will be a big win for the Assassins, and virtually knock the JYDs out of the playoff race.  On the other hand, if the JYDs can sweep the Assassins (in week 11 and 14) they have a very good chance to win the division.  The Assassins don't have any exceptional match-ups this week, and may be looking elsewhere for a defense with New England playing Kansas City.   The JYDs may have lost their top player for another week, so the trade to add Warrick Dunn is looking very good now, especially since they will be playing against the pathetic Giants Defense this week.

Ketchup Hotdog (5-5) vs. Phatbacks (3-7)
KH will have to keep scoring to keep their wildcard hopes alive, but will also need some help by the Assassins and Hooligans winning their division.  KH will likely have a solid week on the ground as Tiki Barber plays the Falcons defense which has been humbled recently and Corey Dillon goes up against KC.  The PhatBacks need to outscore KH by a lot to get back into the running, and with Peyton Manning carrying their team and Emmitt Smith playing like he's 22 again, might have a chance to beat the current Wildcard leader.

Hooligans (6-4) vs. Quiet Storm (1-9)
The Hooligans put on a record setting performance last week, and their team quickly become the top scoring team in the league.  The only question - did this team peak too soon, or is it only on it's way up?  Jerome Bettis is the league's "I wish I drafted him" player, and now has more touchdowns than $29 Edgerin James, $41 Clinton Ports and $22 Fred Taylor combined.  The Quiet Storm has been playing much better recently, especially with the play of Jason Whitten and Vinny Testaverde, but this week they're up against Baltimore, so will have a tough time putting up enough points to beat the Hooligans.

 

Transactions, Week 10

 

 

Poll

I think a lot of us have purchased the Stat Tracker add-on.  That's about $15 for the year.  Another option is to upgrade to the "deluxe" package which includes Stat Tracker for every team, and gives a whole lot of extra options (I think including divisions, but I'm not sure) as well as a ton of free goodies.  Do you think we should upgrade our league next year, or stick with the current league (note - we'd also have the option to move to another provider at about the same cost, but that's another question).

Should we upgrade to the full league next year?
Sure, $15 isn't a big deal, and I pay for Stat Tracker now anyway
Nope, I don't want to put any more bucks into the pool.
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

 

Week 11 Results (preliminary)

 

 Hitmen 62

SmackDownSister 52

StiffArms 66

Marauders 50

Chargers 77

Rynos 70
In perhaps the most important game of the year for the Hitmen, they come up with a victory and keep pace with the division leading Hooligans.  The Hitmen had a great game from the Seahawks Defense that had 4 sacks, 4 takeaways and one touchdown.  LaDanian Tomlinson also had close to 175 total yards and a touchdown.  SmackDownSister is now almost out of contention, and will have to win all of their remaining games to contend. The StiffArms are quietly creeping up on the wildcard, and are less than 20 points behind the current wildcard leader.  They had a fantastic day by the Denver Defense that picked up a touchdown to go along with 2 sacks and 4 take-aways while both Buerlson and Fitzgerald scored touchdowns.  The Marauders left enough points on the bench to win this game and got bad luck as Ahman Green was injured on the first play of the game and could not contribute. The Chargers hand the Rynos their second loss of the year, as they have one of their best weeks of the year.  Their Bucks defense was huge with 5 sacks, 2 take-aways and a defensive score while allowing only 3 points against.  Alge Crumpler also had two touchdowns and almost 50 yards.  The Rynos had four players score double digit fantasy points, but his trio of receivers did their best Marauder imitation and combined for 68 yards.

JYDs 50

Assassins 43

PhatBacks 69

Ketchup Hotdog 52

Hooligans 83

Quiet Storm 33
The JYDs are doing what it takes to win, and hand the Assassins their third loss in four weeks in a very close game.  In a continuing trend, the Steelers Defense was their highest scoring position with 3 sacks, 1 int, 1 TD and a safety, while David Carr had 200 total yards and one TD.  The Assassins had one of their worst weeks of the year thanks to an injury to Jamal Lewis. The PhatBacks upset Ketchup Hotdog and may have knocked them out of contention in the CFL.  Their free agent acquisition Ruben Droughns lead their team with almost 200 total yards and one touchdown.  KH continues to score low against divisional rivals, and is now averaging close to 15 points lower than their season average when facing a divisional opponent. The Hooligans win again in big style, and for a second week in a row are the top scoring team, extending their lead over the Rynos for the most points in the league.  This week it was Mushin Muhammed again who had over 125 total yards and two touchdowns.  The Quiet Storm has started a new streak, and suffered as two of their starters have been benched by the Cowboys (Eddie George and Testeverde).