risk winning probabilities

Dijkstra-Tucker
Wed, 28 Feb 1996 19:53:51 +-100

You might be interested in the probabilities of winning a battle in =
Risk.
These percentages are derived of fractions, so the numbers given are not =
precise, but I think they will be sufficient to guide your strategies.

When you attack with 1 army and the other one defends with 1 army, the =
probability that the attacker wins is 41.7% (defender 58.3%)
When you attack with 2 armies and the other one defends with 1 army, the =
probability that the attacker wins is 57% (defender 43%)
When you attack with 3 armies and the other one defends with 1 army, the =
probability that the attacker wins is 65.9% (defender 34.1%)

When you attack with 1 army and the other one defends with 2 armies, the =
probability that the attacker wins is 25.5% (defender 74.5%)
When you attack with 2 armies and the other one defends with 2 armies, =
the probability that - the attacker wins is 22.7%
- the defender wins is 48%
- the attacker and defender both lose 1 army is 29.3%
When you attack with 3 armies and the other one de