February 6, 1998


ANALYSIS / THAI-BURMESE GAS PIPELINE

In life, the big man nearly always wins
Conservationists have gone up against the state machinery before and lost each time. It is now more and more probable the anti-pipeline campaign will fare no better.

CHAKRIT RIDMONTRI and WASANT TECHAWONGTHAM

This is a story about David versus Goliath. But unlike the Biblical version, David in this story is doomed to be crushed.

David, in this case, is a loose alliance of grassroots groups in Kanchanaburi: conservation and human rights organisations, students' groups, environmental lawyers and common villagers. Goliath is the Thai-Burmese pipeline developer, the Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT), backed by the entire state machinery and the industrial sector.

The fact that David with only a few resources has been able to engage in battle with Goliath with his huge coffers for nearly two years is a wonder in itself. But this is just because, unlike conventional battle, victory is not defined by brute force. Rather it is the ability to sway public opinion in one's favour.

Protests against the pipeline project began only after the PTT had signed a contract with the gas exploration consortium in Burma in which it holds a quarter stake.

Opponents demand that the project be scrapped altogether or the pipeline route be diverted from forest areas. They claim, among other things, that the pipeline will cause irreparable damage to the ecology and the habitat of rare wildlife in forest areas through which it will pass, that the lives of residents along the pipeline route will be endangered by possible rupture or sabotage, and that the money from the sale of gas will allow the military junta in Burma to crush its ethnic and democratic opposition more easily.

The PTT dismisses all charges, arguing that the project is the best-laid plan taking everything into consideration. The environment will suffer minimum impact and there is almost no safety risk to residents along the pipeline. And to bolster its position, the PTT has said repeatedly that the project is a matter of national interest by securing energy supplies, and any delay due to opposition will result in hefty fines.

So the battle ground is defined. What follows is the strategy each side adopts to convince the public to stand behind it.

At first, only the local Kanchanaburi Conservation Group and a couple of other environmental NGOs demanded that the PTT reassess the environmental impact. Perceived as the underdog, they captured the public's attention and sympathy earlier and caused some consternation to the developer.

The PTT fought back. But being new to fighting for public opinion, it was clumsy at first. It provided very facts facts to the public and was seen as using coercion and threats against complaining residents. It stonewalled the opponents' demand for details of the contracts it signed with the gas exploration consortium and its contractors.

However, the state oil company is a quick learner. It started mending its way and put its well-oiled public relations machine to work. It employs a multi-pronged strategy that tackles the opponents on all sides.

At the most public level, it attempts to paint itself as green by launching and publicising widely a reafforestation programme that will cost billions of baht. This was followed by other campaigns with a conservation theme in all media. The objective is unmistakeable: if it has spent so much on environmental conservation, why would it deliberately endanger the forests as opponents are charging.

At another level, it is hammering home its argument equating the project with the national interest, implying that the country will suffer huge losses if the project is delayed. The opponents are forces against national development.

Suspicions have arisen that the PTT is also at work at a subterranean level. Observers suspect it is using its influence to garner support from those most likely to benefit from the project, such as the local chamber of commerce, industry, village and tambon chiefs, and perhaps the local media as well. Opponents also allege the PTT has used its well-endowed public relations fund to sponsor events in support of its cause such as the most recent rally by tens of thousands of local people at the provincial hall.

The PTT is showing the most savvy in dealing with its foes by agreeing to engage in a series of talks with its opponents, even at the expense of halting construction for a few days during the talks. But all the attempts not surprisingly have failed to yield any substantive results. Indeed, it can be seen as an attempt by the PTT to buy time and pacify its opponents, stringing them along until they become exhausted and the PTT gains the upper hand.

Its sincerity to resolve the dispute is questionable given its insistence that the pipeline route could not be diverted even from the 6-km stretch of fertile forest, allowing no room for compromise.

For their part, the opponents can rely on their only source of support - from sympathisers among NGOs, students' groups, academics and environmental lawyers - to get their message across through the press.

But their meagre resources cannot compare with the PTT's, and this shows in the disarray of the movement, the low morale of its troops, and their leaders' feeling of isolation and frustration. Most of the public appear to be no better informed of their cause. If it has shown any interest at all, it is that it will benefit from cheap energy. The opponents' threat to sue the PTT was not taken seriously and is unlikely to succeed. They also have got nothing from all the negotiations with the PTT.

The entrance to Huay Khayeng forest has become the final battleground with the opponents setting up camp there to block the PTT from laying the pipeline. They can do little except protect a short 2-km stretch of lush forest against "intrusion" by construction workers. And they are still banking their hope on government-sponsored talks to lead to an acceptable resolution despite many failures in the past.

It could well be a hopeless hope given the fact that successive governments have not shown any enthusiasm for entertaining a compromise that will result in a delay to the project, much less now as the construction has reached the point of no return.

As the battle enters the final stage, David appears to have no stones left for his slingshort but has put up guards ready for the final onslaught, while Goliath has mustered all his resources behind the pipeline and to isolate David in the trenches.

All the while, the construction of the pipeline moves steadily forward, inching ever closer to the man-made barrier, ready to push its way through at any opportune moment. When the moment comes, police are expected to move in to haul the protesters away with armed troops standing by to provide additional support so that workers can lay the last pipe and seal the system.

Goliath is readying for the kill and David is in the grip of the death throes.



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This page posted to the SAAN website Feb. 15 1998