PM Chuan must listen to the forgotten rural poor

With the country facing a possibly worsening economy and prices for everything from sugar to petrol on the up, it is a wonder that Chuan Leekpai's government still enjoys a large measure of public support.

But one needs only look at Indonesia, with riots every other day and public challenges to President Suharto's rule, to be reminded of what could happen.

The Chuan government should count its blessings but also realise that the good will it is benefiting from cannot be taken for granted.

If the current economic woes drag on, with no relief in sight, and social and labour problems worsen, people will not be able to bear the pressure and the very survival of the Chuan administration will be at risk.

The social cohesion of Thailand is threatened and could result in conflict between the haves and the have-nots - between the better educated urban population of Bangkok and the provincial poor.

Chulalongkorn University economics lecturer Narong Phetprasert says commodity price rises and government ignorance of the grievances of the poor could lead to a polarisation of rural and Bangkok folk.

He says soaring prices would not destabilise the government in the short run but would further polarise the country in the long term.

Rural people would feel unhappy with the government for forcing them to shoulder burdens for mistakes they never made.

"Mistakes have been made from time to time by businessmen and politicians. Even the current government can't say it is not without blame. However, it is rural people who are suffering most from the crisis," said Mr Narong.

The attitude of Bangkok people towards the government, however, is quite different. They are optimistic since many work for state agencies and believe the government will some day tackle the economic problems.

In addition, the Chuan government has two respected figures - Finance Minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda and Commerce Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi. Bangkok's citizens believe the present government is much better than the previous Chavalit Yongchaiyudh government.

"Though they are suffering from soaring food prices, Bangkokians would do nothing to oppose the government now. They... feel that the crisis is not at its peak," said Mr Narong.

While Bangkok people are having to put up with rising costs of living, rural people, especially farmers, are having to shoulder both higher living and crop production costs. Most are taken advantage of by middlemen who have stronger financial power. However, their grievances have yet to be addressed by the government.

Mr Narong said if the current crisis lasted another three years there would be polarisation, which would set Thai against Thai, and possible political instability.

Those living upcountry would reject Bangkok people for being overly concerned with the country's industrial and financial economies instead of its agriculture. This, in the end, would lead to the rejection of the state.

"When the Chavalit government collapsed, it was the business sector that forced the change of government, not the poor. That has caused the Chuan government to be arrogant and overlook the poor's problems. But not anymore.

"The less power the poor have to change this government, the more threatening polarisation becomes, which could change the country's whole political direction," he said.

In the past, the middle-class and especially Bangkok people, were the only groups to determine the fate of the country. However, in recent years, farmers' demands for a better deal from the government have become more common and determined.

Under the current circumstances the Chuan government should pay more attention to what rural people are saying. The grassroot movements are growing in strength and size and their importance cannot be overstated. "What would Bangkok people do if farmers stopped producing rice for domestic consumption?" asked Mr Narong.

Thailand is suffering from food price hikes despite it being an agriculturally rich country because the sector has been overlooked for more than 10 years. The focus has been on industrialisation.

"While we were focussing on industrial development we never looked to the farmers and the agricultural sector. When we were talking about the country's financial problems we should ask whose finance it is. We are concerned about the banks and finance companies for the rich, but what about finance for the poor? We've never thought about them, about how they can survive. Now we are losing our strong agricultural base," said Mr Narong.

He said, so far, he had seen no difference between the Chuan and the Chavalit governments, apart from the Chuan administration being more acceptable to Bangkok and the press.

He also blamed the press for supporting the government and turning a blind eye to rural problems.

Ms Saree Ongsomwang of the Committee of Non-Governmental Organisations for Basic Public Health, which is responsible for consumer protection, admitted that soaring food prices were causing problems for consumers. She said so far the current government had failed to come up with constructive measures to protect consumers.

However, she believed the crisis was not bad enough to cause public unrest or anti-government protests.

"Rural people are suffering more than the Bangkok population. While the middle-class is still having three meals a day, the poor can hardly find something to eat. However, the voices of the poor usually go unheard," she added.

Ms Saree said most middle-class people felt positive about the government and they accepted that food price hikes were the only way out.

"People are giving them a chance to prove themselves," she said.