I'm back again. First of all, I would like to thank Paul and Mark for keeping this site going and secondly, I would like to welcome Henry Brennan and Matthew Sbordone aboard as regular columnists. My first Notebook of the new year will deal with the Sox' pitching situation.

One thing has been very consistent with the Red Sox since the arrival of the best pitcher in all of Baseball (Pedro for all of those who couldn't guess) arrived on the scene in 1998, the Red Sox have hovered near the top of the league in pitching. 1998 was a good season as the Sox had three starters with at least 15 wins (Pedro (19), Wakefield (17), and Saberhagen (15). In 99, the Sox added Pat Rapp and Mark Portugal to those 3 starters and look to improve. Unfortunately, only Pedro improved, while Saberhagen struggled with injury and won 10, Wakefield struggled early and then moved to the closer's role, Portugal never panned out, and Rapp had an up and down season. By the end of the year, Ramon Martinez had moved into the rotation, Kent Mercker was aboard, and Brian Rose loomed on the Horizon. The Sox went into 2000 with a 1-2 punch of Pedro and Ramon and added Jeff Fassero, Brian Rose, and Pete Schourek to the mix. Things didn't go exactly as planned and with 3 of those 4 now gone, and the other (Schourek) a long shot to make the rotation in 2001, the Sox entered the Offseason with Pedro as the only sure thing for 2001. The Sox had added Arrojo during the 2000 season, and Ohka had pitched well in the last 10-11 weeks, but the rest of the potential staff was unknown, so the Sox began the Free Agent signing period looking to sew up Mike Mussina to a long term deal. Fortunately for Sox fans, Mussina spurned the Sox offer and sold his soul to the hated Yankees. Yup, that's right, I'm glad that he didn't sign here. Two words will sum it all up, Manny Ramirez.

With Mussina signing with the hated pinstripes, Duquette was forced to go to plan "B", and thankfully he did. Within days of Mussina spurning the Sox offer, Duquette made a couple of modest FA signings in Frank Castillo and the returning Tim Wakefield and entered the Ramirez sweepstakes (which the Sox would not have done with Mussina aboard). Duquette would follow with a decent FA gamble in Hideo Nomo, and follow that up with some veteran signings in Schourek and Mercker to minor league deals, and in a huge surprise take a gamble on David Cone after a miserable season in 2000. The beauty is that the Sox have nothing to lose on the Cone gamble as he will either make the team or be cut loose at a minimal cost.

The Sox enter Spring Training with 9 legitimate candidates for the starting rotation, and 17 pitchers competing for 11 positions on the roster. Now, I will take a look at the candidates, first the 9 competing for a starting position:

1. Pedro Martinez- The one sure thing on the starting staff. Aside from not winning as many games as he did in 99 (due to abysmal run support), Pedro actually improved upon his 99 numbers. Without a doubt, no single pitcher means as much to his team as Pedro means to the Sox. In an effort to keep him healthy all year, look for Pedro to pitch every 5th game this season rather than every 5th day. Here is Pedro's average season for the last 3 years:

31 Starts, 20-6, 2.25 ERA, 221 IP, 159 Hits, 55 Earned Runs, 45 BB, 283 K

2. Hideo Nomo- the closest thing to a sure bet to make the staff. Nomo comes off a fairly decent year in which he pitched 190 innings and had a 4.74 ERA. If Nomo can improve his ERA to his career average of 3.97 or even post something in the 4.20 range, I expect that he can easily win 15 games with this team. Here is his average season for the last 3 years:

29 Starts, 10-10, 4.75 ERA, 174.1 IP, 165 Hits, 92 Earned Runs, 87 BB, 170 K

3. David Cone- I can understand the hesitation on Cone, but last season did differ from his career track, however, I do realize that his 38 year old body does present questions after such a lousy season in 2000: 4-14, 6.91 ERA. Here is Cone's average season for the last 3 years:

30 Starts, 12-10, 4.47 ERA, 185.1 IP, 181 Hits, 92 Earned Runs, 80 BB, 169 K

Over the last 4 years, his ERA has been 4.02 (which would have been 6th in the A.L. last season) and take away a horrible 2000 and his ERA drops to 3.28. Here is Cone's average year from 97-99:

30 Starts, 15-10, 3.28 ERA, 199 IP, 168 Hits, 72 Earned Runs, 78 BB, 203 K

4. Rolando Arrojo- Anyone who reads the message board knows that I am not a big Arrojo fan. He was an outstanding pitcher in 1998 (14-12, 3.56 ERA). Unfortunately, Arrojo has done this for the last 2 years(17-23, 5.43 ERA). Here is his average year for his last 3 years:

29 Starts, 10-12, 4.71 ERA, 171.2 IP, 181 Hits, 90 Earned Runs, 64 BB, 128 K

I feel that Arrojo will get off to a terrible start and be bumped from the rotation (replaced by Saberhagen (coming off DL), Ohka (return from minors), or Wakefield (from the bullpen). Let's hope that I am wrong about him and he can pitch somewhere near his 1998 form.

5. Frank Castillo- Frank is coming off an excellent season in 2000 (10-5, 3.49 ERA, 138 IP). Castillo started off his career with the Cubs and posted some good numbers from 91-95 (34-37, 3.86 ERA) for a bad team but injuries started to catch up with him and he was terrible from 96-98 (22-37, 5.71 ERA) and he spent the entire 1999 season in the minors. Hopefully, Castillo can pitch more like the 91-95, 2000 version than the 96-99 version. If he can do that, he will make an excellent 4th or 5th starter. Here is his average year over his last 3 major league seasons:

Starts, 8-9, 5.23 ERA, 146 IP , 161 Hits, 85 Earned Runs, 55 BB, 104 K

6. Tim Wakefield- I was a very happy guy when Wakes resigned with the Sox after negotiations with Mussina didn't work out. This guy exemplifies a team player. For the last 2 seasons, he has basically sacrificed personal numbers for the benefit of the team. Yes, he has not been as effective since posting 17 wins in 98, but his stint as closer in 99 arguably saved the season and his ability to serve such a variety of roles and give a lot of innings makes him invaluable IMHO and Wakes is definitely one player who goes way beyond his numbers. I feel that Tim will likely work out of the pen for a good portion of the year, but don't put it beyond him to serve a key role as a starter. While Wakefield may make a lot of Sox fans nervous, I always have confidence in him and I consider him to be my second favorite player on the team (behind John Valentin). Anyhow, here is his average season for the last 3 years:

45 Games, 22 Starts, 10-10, 5 Saves, 4.99 ERA, 171.2 IP, 176 Hits, 95 Earned Runs, 72 BB, 117 K

7. Brett Saberhagen- If Sabes can return, the Sox pitching prospects improve dramatically. When healthy, Sabes has posted this average season for the Sox:

26 Starts, 13-7, 3.46 ERA , 147 Innings, 150 Hits, 61 Runs, 56 Earned Runs, 20 BB , 91 K

Counting on Sabes to return would be foolish on the Sox' part (hence the reason for so many candidates for the rotation), but those numbers speak volumes about his impact. So far there have been encouraging signs for Sabes this Spring. Let's hope that it can continue, because a healthy Sabes makes this an extremely good looking rotation.

8. and 9. Tomo Ohka and Paxton Crawford- The "no hit kids". Both of these guys impressed in their time with the big club last season and Ohka particularly shined in his time after his recall. I believe that Ohka doesn't really need to go back to AAA, but if Cone and Sabes can pitch, they have to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Since Nomo appears to be a lock for a starting spot, I am all for sticking Ohka in a spot in the rotation (2-5 mean nothing until the playoffs) even with those two healthy, but that would involve some tricky roster decisions (What to do with Arrojo, Wakefield, and Castillo, and a lefty reliever in the pen) that I feel the Sox will push off until later. (When Cone (if he makes the team), Nomo, Arrojo, and Castillo have made 5-6 starts, and we know if Sabes will return). In essence, this means that Ohka would start in Pawtucket no matter how well that he does in Spring Training until the Sox make some concrete decisions about some of these veterans. I do feel that he will play a factor a some point in 2001 though, likely sometime after May. Crawford showed great promise in his brief time with the Sox last season and I feel that he legitimately could be a good starter in the Majors in the near future, it is highly likely that he will spend a good portion of the year in AAA as he likely has all the veterans as well as Ohka ahead of him on the Depth chart. He will definitely get a look if several of the veterans don't work out though.

I think that the likely scenario for Opening Day is a staff of Pedro, Cone, Nomo, Arrojo, and Castillo with Sabes on the 15 day DL, Wakefield in the pen (mainly because he would be better at relieving than Arrojo or Castillo) and Ohka and Crawford going to Pawtucket. If Cone doesn't make the team, I would expect either Ohka or Wakefield to move into his spot in the rotation, but I do feel that he will turn it around and make the team. I think that Sabes will make a return by May 1 or he will retire. That would involve the first real tricky roster decision if no one else is injured and it will be interesting to see who would be bumped from the rotation (as I have explained on the message board many times, my choice would be Arrojo as I expect an early season struggle for him).

I think that the stats that I have posted show that Wakefield, Nomo, and Arrojo have posted virtually identical numbers for the last 3 years. Cone, despite a horrible 2000 has posted better numbers than all 3 of those guys, and if he can return to 97-99 form, that would be a huge boost. Sabes' stats show how good he can be when he can pitch and he is well worth waiting for. That said, I think it is good that the Sox are not relying on Cone or Saberhagen and that they have so many other legitimate options (Wakefield, Nomo, Castillo, Ohka, Crawford, and Arrojo). At some point this year (2nd half), I would love to see a rotation of Pedro, Cone, Nomo, Ohka, and Saberhagen with Arrojo elsewhere and Castillo and Wakes in the pen (or replacing Nomo, Cone, or Sabes if they don't work out) but it remains to be seen what will happen.

The bullpen picture is a lot clearer to me as, barring injury, 4 guys are locks for the pen (Lowe, Garces, Beck, and Pichardo) and a 5th guy will be Wakefield, Arrojo, or Castillo (whoever isn't in the rotation). The tricky decision comes regarding the 11th position (6th reliever) on the pitching staff. If the Sox do go with a lefty (coming from the mix of Sang Lee, Pete Schourek, Kent Mercker, or Jesus Pena), that means that a difficult roster decision would be necessitated if Sabes could return and the likelihood of Ohka returning to AAA to start the year is increased.

Personally, I think that the Sox should just stick Lee in there and see what he can do, but he has remaining options and an automatic option for 2002 kicks in if he makes 60 appearances in 2001, so I think that he will begin in AAA unless he has a spectacular Spring Training. I think that Schourek is kidding himself and will end up retiring, but I would like to note that this guy did a great job last season prior to his injury (in early June) and his effort to try to pitch again at the end of the year speaks volumes about his heart. Unfortunately, I think that all of the injuries have really caught up with him. Mercker has always been a Jimy Williams favorite and his return would be quite a story (after his aneurysm last season). I think that he will get that 11th spot if he has a good ST, but I would be comfortable with Lee as well.

Finally, Bryce Florie is quite an inspiration, but he clearly will start the year on the DL and even if he was healthy enough to pitch, I'm not sure there is a spot for him in the bullpen. While everyone is rooting for the guy, the fact remains that this guy was mediocre at best before the injury.

So far (as of March 5), Castillo (4 scoreless innings), Wakefield (2 scoreless innings with 2 double play balls), and Ohka (2 scoreless innings) have all look impressive while Arrojo (5 unearned runs, 2 HR's in 2 innings), Cone (5 runs, 2 earned, 2 HR's in 2 innings) and Nomo (5 runs, 1 HR in 1 inning) have all gotten off to rough starts. Cone really needs to pitch much better in his next 2 or 3 starts or he will get released, and Nomo and Arrojo will face the prospect of being bumped in the rotation by Wakefield or Ohka without better performances, but clearly there is still a lot of time to go in Spring Training.

Whenever the Sox starting rotation is decided, I will feature a comparison between the Sox starting rotation and the Yankees rotation based on recent performance (the last 3 years). in an SRYD Notebook. It should prove to be very interesting. Just for a preview, I will mention that the Yankee top 4 of Clemen$$, Mussina, Pettitte, and Hernandez has averaged 123 starts, 60-38, and a 3.28 ERA as a foursome for the last 3 years. Don't read anything into that yet, as I will have a lot more to say when Spring Training is finished. TO BE CONTINUED...........

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