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"MAD COWS", ENGLISHMEN AND THE PRION HYPOTHESIS

by Dorothy B. Preslar, ProMED/AHEAD Program Officer

Reviewed by John P. Woodall and J. Ralph Blanchfield

Introduction

      In March 1996 the public was startled by a statement made to the British Parliament that ten recent cases of a rare brain disease in the UK might be linked to a similar disease in cattle. The human disease found in the cases is a variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD), which was recognized before the turn of the 20th Century and kills one person out of a million world wide per year. The cattle disease is Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), which was first diagnosed in the UK in 1986 and subsequently in other countries, and was initially believed to have resulted from feeding healthy cattle the remains of sheep killed by a related disease called Scrapie.

     For at least a decade, the UK and other countries have taken a number of actions to reduce the incidence, or prevent the occurrence, of BSE. Notwithstanding the similarities of the disease in animals and humans, the possibility that it could be transmitted from cow or sheep to man, by any means, is generally accepted as close to zero; the principal reason being the natural barrier to such cross-infectivity between animals and man. Although a recent article by evolutionary biologist David Krakauer a nd others, hypothesizes that the barrier may be less than total (Nature, 25 April, 1996, p. 675), proof that BSE has crossed the barrier will, according to Dr. Tom Pringle, reporting to ProMED-Mail on 2 May, involve a demonstration "by immunofluorescence that traces of rogue cow protein is present in human victims."

     This survey of the ProMED-Mail discussion on the Internet (supplemented by other information in the public domain) includes reports and requests for information on several forms of spongiform encephalopathy. In animals other than cattle, sheep and goa ts, the disease is usually referred to as Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) and includes Chronic Wasting Disease that affects mule deer and elk. The feline type (FSE) affects domestic cats and TME (transmissible mink encephalopathy) affects.. ...mink, of course. TSE has been found in zoological specimens: in Great Britain, for example, confirmed cases include six kudus, five eland, a nyala and a gemsbok, one Arabian oryx, one puma, one scimitar-horned onyx, one ocelot and four cheetah; in Germany there were 3 ostriches. Infection in all cases is believed to have resulted from cattlefeed containing by-products of BSE-infected cattle remains.

     There are five known human forms of the disease -- CJD, the recent varient of CJD (V-CJD), kuru, Gerstmann- traussler Syndrome (GSS) and Fatal familial insomnia. There are three forms of Classic CJD -- sporadic, inherited and infective. Sporadic CJD is the most prevalent. Until the current appearance in the UK of a CJD-type disease in 10 persons whose average age is 26.5, it was considered a disease of men and women dying over the age of 45 and was, thus, thought to be a result of genetics or age ing, or both. The inherited form represents 10-15 percent of confirmed cases; 100 families have thus far been identified. The infective form is rare -- about 80 cases, all of them unintended results of medical procedures.

     Kuru (from a Pacific Islander word meaning "tremble") was, about a quarter of a century ago, traced to a tribal custom of eating the brains of a deceased relative; since 1957 about 2,600 cases have been identified, but less than 10 cases last year. The current variant of CJD in the UK resembles kuru, both pathologically and clinically, more than it does Creutzfeldt-Jakob. Gerstmann-Straussler, with few cases reported in recent decades, is inherited, some 50 extended families identified. Fatal familial insomnia (FFI) is likewise considered to be caused by a mutated gene in about 9 families.

     Common to all types of the disease -- both human and animal -- is the progressive deterioration of the brain. The overt symptoms are loss of coordination (insomnia in FFI) followed by dementia, although in some CJD cases the sequence is reversed.

Under the microscope, tissue specimens appear as if holes have been randomly drilled through on a horizontal plane -- like Swiss cheese or, in a more subtle analogy,like a sponge. Hence the name spongiform encephalopathy. Once the disease is overt, the patient can expect to live about one year; the span is one month to more than 10 years.

     Until recently, it was not thought that human CJD could be diagnosed before death. Now there are claims for a test using cerebrospinal fluid that not only diagnoses CJD but also distinguishes it from Alzheimers, which has similar symptoms. However, validating such a test requires carrying it out in a substantial number of clinically suspected CJD cases and comparing the results with those of subsequent postmortem histopathological examination of brains, and finding a very high degree of correlation . The test has apparently not yet been validated.

     In the past three decades research has focused on the "prion hypothesis" -- a naturally occurring protein that has "gone bad", changing a normally harmless "prion protein" into a dangerous, protease-resistant form. Probably the best explanation of pr ions for laypersons appeared in the January 1995 issue of Scientific American, in an article written by Stanley B. Prusiner, the leading proponent of the prion hypothesis who is associated with the University of California School of Medicine in San Francisco. However, recent reports published in Nature,Science and New Scientist are most helpful, as is the elementary explanation contributed by Ralph Blanchfield to these pages.

The Story from ProMED-Mail

1994

     Note: The reports to ProMED Mail included here are but a handful of the total number dealing with spongiform encephalopathy.

     The ProMED-Mail discussion of BSE began shortly after the electronic network was launched with a report based on a newspaper article. In light of recent events, it is a curious report. Taken from the Financial Times of London [and posted 9 Nov 1994] , it read "A British-government funded study release in October 1994 shows a statistical association between meat eating (particularly veal, which could contain BSE) and CJD. The number of CJD cases in the UK rose for 3 years, peaking at 55 in 1993 before falling to 40 in 1993. But analysts say this is due to recall bias by the relatives who were questioned, since the same association was found for suspected CJD cases who were later diagnosed with Alzheimer's or other forms dementia."

     What is curious is that, in late 1994, this report states that meat from milk-fed calves (far under 30 months of age) was more likely to contain BSE than cattle over the age of 30 months. In early 1996 it was officially suggested that cattle over 30 months old were more likely to be infected with BSE, whereupon the UK beef industry and government representatives volunteered to slaughter varying numbers of cattle over that age in exchange for the dropping of bans imposed by various countries, and in hopes of reassuring the public that UK beef is safe to eat.

1995

     The next report(3 Mar 1995)detailed the number of BSE cases reported by eleven countries, as tallied by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the US Department of Agriculture. Of the eleven, Oman and the Falkland Islands had last reported in 1989. Cases in native cattle were reported by only five countries -- Northern Ireland (1,385), Republic of

Ireland (94), Switzerland(116), France (9) and Portugal (17). Cases in other countries were found only in imported cattle. Great Britain (England, Scotland, Wales), taken as a separate entity in the report, had a total 140,009 confirmed cases as of 2 Dec 1994, with 52% of the herds affected.

     All cases of BSE are not necessarily reported. For example, in response to a request for information by a ProMED-Mail subscriber in the UK, a report was posted (27 Mar 1995) by a Canadian microbiologist who said he had been told by a Russian colleague several years prior that BSE had been confirmed in areas of the then Soviet Union.

     At the end of March, there was a brief exchange on ProMED-Mail between veterinarians in the U.S. and Canada on the correct nomenclature for confirmed cases in animals other than cattle and whether the other forms (mink, feline, transmissible) in the cases mentioned could have been caused by feed containing the remains of BSE-infected cattle or scrapie-infected sheep.

While no one responded with respect to the zoological specimens that had died from TSE, Dr. Clarence Gibbs of the National Institute s of Health said "I am of the opinion that BSE has occurred in the past in the USA based on the two outbreaks of transmissible mink encephalopathy, one in the early 1960s and the other in the late 1980s. In both outbreaks the mink had been fed food prepa red from "downer cattle" and horses."

     In the first wave of reports of recent CJD deaths in Great Britain, a 28 Sept report based on two letters to the British medical journal The Lancet was posted: "A third British dairy farmer has died of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease... . The 54- year-old man worked on a farm where three cows died of mad cow disease [BSE]... . The other two farmers died within the past five years. The mad cow disease epidemic, which peaked in 1989, sparked fears tha t those who ate beef or worked closely with cattle could catch a fatal brain disease.

     "A second letter in The Lancet reported that the incidence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in Britain is similar to that in other countries that have not suffered the cattle disease. That survey reportedly did not find any other cases...among other workers exposed to mad cows,such as veterinarians or butchers. It also appears that British farmers are no more likely to get the disease than farmers in other European countries who have not dealt with sick cows.

     "Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease strikes about one in a million people each year. It is not known what causes the disease or whether the same agent triggers both the human and animal forms. Since 1986, 153,215 cattle have been destroyed in Britain afte r showing symptoms of the disease. British beef imports have been banned by 23 nations."

     Close behind this report came one based on a story of 6 Nov in the Manchester Guardian "Doctors reported two cases ... in a girl of 16 and a boy of 18, both of whom died, but say there is no obvious link to BSE... . Three farmers have died f rom the disease and a fourth is seriously ill. A farmer's wife and a businessman are the latest suspected victims."

     In late November 1995, in a series of letters to the British Medical Journal, doctors in Britain, the U.S. and Europe called for extensive new research to determine whether or not humans can contract CJD by eating beef from BSE-infected cattle. Jeffrey Almond of the School of Animal and Microbial Science, a department of the University of Reading, wrote that there was evidence that BSE-type disease jumped between species. Sheila Gore of the Biostatistics Unit of the Medical Research Counci l wrote "Taken together, cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in farmers and young adults are more than happenstance."

     At that point in the disease history, 53 percent of British dairy herds were confirmed infected by BSE. Some researchers claimed that 34 million beef-eating humans may have been exposed. The German parliament was trying to ban British beef imports. On 7 Dec news reports published the results on a poll in Britain: 9 out 10 said they did not believe their government'statements that beef is safe to eat. And beef was eliminated from menus in hundreds of British schools.

     The British public thus aroused, the debate on the safety of eating beef from British cattle became furious with retail beef sales dropping 25 percent and even a threat of legal action by the maker of Bovril, a popular beef drink, after a radio hel p line advised callers worried about catching "mad cow disease" to stop consuming beef products. Government officials scurried to reassure the public. Agriculture Minister Douglas Hogg said "I am absolutely sure that British beef is wholly safe", while conceding that there was no conclusive proof that BSE could not be transmitted to humans through beef offal. Food Minister Angela Browning said she "of course" ate beef.

     Among those on the other side of the argument were leading brain expert and former government health adviser Sir Bernard Tomlinson, who said he had stopped eating hamburgers and anything else that contained beef offal, and Leicester University resear cher Shaun Heaphy, who said "There is a grand experiment going on in Britain with BSE with us as the laboratory animals." Clearly, the incubation period for CJD -- up to 30 years -- made the public even more wary than it would be if there were only a spa n of days or weeks from exposure to symptoms.

     Five days before Christmas, when one holiday meal in a typical home is likely to be roast beef and Yorkshire pudding, British scientists from the Imperial College School of Medicine said in a report to Nature magazine that their experiments w ith mice had found no connection between BSE and CJD. The experiment included two types of transgenic mice. The first type expressed both mouse prion protein and human prion protein; the second type expressed only human prion protein. When a group of the first type (mous e and human protein) was challenged with CJD material by intracerebral innoculation, both the mouse and the human protein succumbed. Another group of the first type was challenged with BSE material, also introduced by intracerebral innoculation, the mous e protein succumbed but the human protein did not.

     Two groups of the second type, expressing only human prion protein, were then challenged. The first group was intracerebrally innoculated with CJD material, the second group with BSE material. The first group duly developed CJD in 200 days. The secon d did not develop BSE and was still fit and well after 264 days.

     Ralph Blanchfield, Chair of the Institute of Food Science and Technology (IFST) Member Relations and Services Committee, reported to ProMED-Mail on 22 Dec and 29 Dec that the number of confirmed new BSE cases in the UK had fallen sharply from 1992 ( a peak of 37,057 cases) to the end of November 1995 (11,031 cases reported to that date) and, further, that the number of cases in cattle less than 5 years old (in late 1994) showed a "particularly sharp decline"as stated in the Progress Report of the Spo ngiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) released in November 1994.

     This would indicate that the Financial Times report of 9 Nov 1994 (quoted at the beginning of this narrative) was either in error, or that the report that plotted the confirmed cases by month of birth of cattle also contained statistics indica ting an increase in cases in cattle less than 12 weeks old. According to beef marketing regulations, this is the oldest a calf can be when slaughtered as "milk-fed" veal, although calves as old as 24 weeks are often slaughtered and sold as veal in superm arkets. But, in any case, there was a decline in cases, and it chronologically reflected the 1989 ban on ruminant feed for cattle.

1996

     In the first week of January ProMED-Mail carried postings from a Canadian and a Danish subscriber, both of whom had been following press reports on the CJD-BSE situation in Britain. Taken together, they described a 52-year old man, Leonard Franklin, who was being treated at York District Hospital with symptoms of CJD. Franklin had worked in an abattoir from 1989 to 1991 and was first diagnosed as having Alzheimers. Staff from the government's CJD Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh visited the patient. It is presumed that Franklin died, but he is not among the 10 cases of the disease in persons younger than 42 that are at the heart of the current controversy. [It has been reported that CJD claimed 29 lives in Britain in 1995 and was suspect in 65 other deaths.]

     On 20 March 1996 Stephen Dorrell, British Secretary of State for Health, delivered a statement in Parliament based on advice from SEAC, which, established in April 1990, is a committee of independent scientists. Its task is to advise the UK govern ment on all scientific aspects of BSE. Dorrell said "There remains no scientific proof that BSE can be transmitted to man by beef, but the Committee [members] have concluded that the most likely explanation at present is that these cases are linked to exposure to BSE before the introduction of the specified bovine offal ban in 1989. Against the background of this new finding, the committee has today agreed [on] the series of recommendations which the Government is making public this afternoon."

     In the afternoon, the recommendations were made public: There should be continued surveillance of the disease; current measures to protect the public health should be properly enforced; and the complete removal of the spinal cord in slaughtered cattle should be constantly supervised. Further, the Committee recommended:

   1."that carcasses from cattle aged over 30 months must be deboned in licensed plants supervised by the Meat Hygiene Service and the trimmings must be classified as SBOs" [Specified Bovine Offals];

   2."a prohibition on the use of mammalian meat and bonemeal in feed for all farm animals";

   3."that HSE [Health and Safety Executive] and ACPP [Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens -- the acronym is incorrect], in consultation with SEAC, should urgently review their advice in the light of these findings"; and

   4."that the Committee urgently consider what further research is necessary."

     "The Committee's previous advice that drinking milk is safe was allowed to stand. If the recommendations set out above are carried out, the committee concluded that the risk from eating beef is now likely to be extremely small."

     Immediately the British Government was accused in the press and in Parliament of ties to the agriculture industry that prevented it from protecting public health, and was roundly criticized by a number of scientists for allowing the SEAC report to be made public before releasing data that would hopefully mitigate the public panic. Nations not already imposing bans on imports of British beef considered their options. Doctors and scientists began trying to make sense of what data existed. Reports to ProMED-AHEAD rushed in.

THE PRION HYPOTHESIS

      [Note: This is an attempt at an explanation intended to be understandable by non-scientists as well as scientists.

The latter will recognize that some of the matters briefly described are more complex than it is possible to indicate here, and that research is continually bringing new knowledge in this field.]

     Increasingly, research is confirming the hypothesis of Stanley Prusiner and his colleagues, that in transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (such as BSE in cattle and CJD in humans) the infective agents are abnormal, distorted PRIONS. A prion (PrP) is a small protein molecule found in the brain cell membrane. It is not "live" -- it has no associated DNA. "Prion" is a generic term. Different species have brain cell proteins of different compositions. For example, the human prion differs by 30 d ifferent amino acids from the cattle prion.

     Protein molecules have three-dimensional folded shapes. An infective prion (PrPsc) is one whose shape has become distorted (misshapen). [The PrPsc designation originally referred to sheep scrapie prions, but is now used as a generic designation for a ll kinds of infective prions .] The distorted shape is protease-resistant, i.e. it is not broken down into amino acids in the digestive system. It is also highly resistant to normal heating and to normal sterilants.

     When a distorted prion molecule reaches (by whatever route) the prions in the brain cell membrane of a "host" individual, that molecule is able to act as a three-dimensional "template" to cause a normal prion molecule to adopt a similar distorted shap e; and that in turn is able to act as a template to do the same to another normal prion molecule; and so on.

     One familiar example of a template is the three-dimensional Jello (or jelly) mold, which causes the surface of the jelly in contact to set in exactly the same shape as the mold. Another, two-dimensional, example is the dressmaker's paper patterns t hat enable the cloth to be cut to their exact sizes and shapes.

     Distorted and infective BSE prions probably first arose from the inclusion of scrapie-infected sheep offals in feed for cattle, and probably also from inclusion of offals from cattle suffering from previously unrecorded cases of BSE at low incidence l evel, amplified by subsequent "re-cycling" of infected cattle offals in cattle feed.

     CJD prions are likewise misshapen human brain prions. They may arise from a genetic predisposition of an individual; or by transfer from a person with (or incubating) CJD, via neurosurgery;or via injection of human pituitary gland extract from corpse pituitary glands including persons who had died from CJD (as happened before synthetic material became available); or possibly via transfusion of CJD-infected blood. Other as yet unexplored possibilities might be via the use of CJD-infected dental or opthalmological instruments previously used of a person incubating CJD.

     There is no scientific evidence that CJD prions can be caused by BSE prions; i.e. no scientific evidence that BSE-infective prions can act as a shape template to cause distortion in normal human prions.

NEW QUESTIONS ON THE CAUSATIVE AGENT

     During April, a month during which several papers and letters supporting the prion pathogenesis of spongiform encephalitis appeared in Nature and Science magazines, a most arresting question was put before ProMED-Mail: Is it in fact po ssible that, popular hypotheses aside, BSE really is caused by a virus?

     The question came from David A. Watson, a professor at the University of Texas Medical Branch on 3 Apr:

     "With all the discussion concerning BSE pathogenesis and transmissibility, I am surprised that a very recent paper seems to have been virtually ignored: Manuelidis L, Sklaviadis T, Akowitz A, Fritch W 1995. 'Viral particles are required for infection in neurodegenerative Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease.' Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 92:5124-5128.

     "Quoting only the last 3 sentences of the abstract: `These data strongly implicate a classical viral structure, possibly with no intrinsic PrP, as the CJD infectious agent. CJD-spe cific protective nucleic acid-binding protein(s) have already been identified in 120S preparations, and preliminary subtraction studies have revealed several CJD-specific nucleic acids. Such viral candidates deserve more attention, as they may be of use in preventing iatrogenic CJD and in solving a fundamental mystery .'"

     The next day, Gerhard Krexner, professor of experimental physics at the University of Vienna, Austria, wrote:

     "In the January 1995 edition of the Scientific American, Stanley B. Prusiner has published a paper titled `The Prion Diseases.' In this article he presents a survey on the subject for the non-specialist which is indeed highly interesting and readable.

The way in which the material is exposed leaves the reader inevitably with the impression that available evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of the prion hypothesis and that the scientific debate of the question is more or less closed. Yet, on e has to bear in mind that, as far as I understand, Prusiner was at the origin of the prion hypothesis and that today he and his group continue to belong to its most prominent exponents. Therefore, there might be some bias in his presentation.

     "There is a German translation of the Scientific American called Spektrum der Wissenschaft presenting, essentially, translations of the original manuscripts with a delay of two months. Apart from some editing...these translations somet imes are complemented by additional material which is thought to be, and indeed frequently is, of particular interest to the German-speaking

audience....

      "In the March 1995 edition ...the translation of Prusiner's article is followed by a 3-page paper by Heino Direinger and Mushin Oezel...from the Robert-Koch-Institut in Berlin where these two authors work on unconventional virus diseases. In their paper they strongly advocate the virus hypothesis and even present electron microscopic images of what they call 'virus-like particles' found in brains of scrapie-infected hamsters.

     "Since the journals where the above work has been published are, as I was told, in high repute it appears to me that the debate prion vs. virus is still going on and that the matter has not yet been settled.

     "I would very much appreciate, and in fact believe that most of the participants in this board would do [sic], if experts and scientists actively working in the field could comment on this issue.

     "To my opinion there are at least two arguments pleading for a broader discussion.

     "Firstly, the question of whether there really exists an entirely new class of infectious agents (namely: prions) that is of a fundamental nature in itself.

     "Secondly (and even more importantly in the present context), the measures to be taken in order to prevent further spreading of BSE and its possible communication to humans obviously will depend to some extent on the underlying assumptions concerning the origin of the disease."

A ROLE FOR PESTICIDES?

     While the virus vs prion debate may, in the face of recently published research, be running out of steam, the proposition that organophosphates (OP) in insecticides may be implicated appears to be gathering interest. Responding to a request for information about proponents of the OP hypothesis, Ralph Blanchfield wrote on 5 Apr:

     "The most vigorous argument for the possible involvement of organophosphorus (OP)compounds in BSE is made by Dr.Douglas Latto, Chairman of the British Safety Council. ... He argues that the role of OP is not directly in interacting with prions, but in weakening the immune system, making the cow's central nervous system more susceptible to the action of prions, and he has called for their use to be discontinued."

     And in answer to the question 'Does chemistry suggest that an interaction between PrP and organophosphates is likely, perhaps...act as a catalyst?', Torsten Brinch in Denmark says"Yes, chemistry does suggest that such an interaction is likely. The surface of acetylcholinesterase has enough properties in common with the PrP molecule, to make both molecules react with anti-PrP antisera. The organophosphates are used precisely because they are able to react irreversibly with acetylcholinesterase, th us killing the affected insects.

     "And the 'tombstone' products comprised partly of PrPSc, which are found in diseased brains, have very strong acetylcholinesterase activity. So it is definitely a possibility that the organophosphates can react with PrP." Further, Brinch says "...O P does affect the same regions of the brain which are affected by BSE, and there are similarities pathologically and symptomatically between BSE and chronic OP poisoning."

     According to Robert Trybis, a ProMED-Mail subscriber, the organophosphate hypothesis was advanced by Mark Purdey, a UK farmer, who theorized that the chemicals in the pesticides acted directly on bovine PrP to cause BSE which could then be passed on to other cattle as a result of bovine to bovine feeding. Trybis wrote "He [Purdey] speculated that humans might accumulate organophosphate residues and so also be vulnerable to a BSE like disease." In 1994 Purdey published an article in the Journal of Nutritional Medicine. Purdey summarized his theory in the introduction to the article:

     "In utero exposure of the bovine fetus to chronic `low' doses of neuroactive mutagenic pesticides of the anticholinesterase organophosphate (OP) type that would target thea cetylcholinesterase-like surface of the PrP molecule, and disrupt the chaperone-mediated folding of PrP production and RNA translation process, may play a key non-viral role as the primary initiator of the disease, inducing both the initial misfolding of the PrP, and the hitherto disregarded serotonergic deficit which is fundamental to the 'stress'-invoked secondary 'switch-on' of the PrPsc disease pathogenesis in post-natal life. Once the PrP genetic process is mutated, the products become undegradable PrPsc, infectious isoforms that invariably possess the property to being both vertically and horizontally transmissible. The PrPsc agent, capable of initiating chain reactions of multireplication, is transmitted into succeeding generations that become co ntaminated via placental transmission or ingestion of PrPsc-contaminated brain tissue feedstuff."

      Paul Epstein of Harvard's School of Public Health asked on 29 April "Might the OPs be working at the DNA level, and

through m-RNA, build faulty, unstable surface proteins? The implications for relating chemical toxins to prion disease – either actin g directly on cell membranes or through mutations of structural and/or regulatory genes -- are profound."

DIAGNOSTIC TESTS

     At the time the ProMED discussion began it was believed by laypersons (as well as by those scientists who had not followed all the research in recent years) that CJD could not be definitively diagnosed before death. This is probably because such was true before research programs geared up after the late 1980s outbreak in Britain, because SE could be diagnosed in animals only by microscopic examination of necopsied brain tissue, and because pre-mortem tests appear not to have been validated by acc eptable methodology.

     On 17 Nov 1995, Dr. Clarence Gibbs of the NIH refuted this belief: "...we at the NIH are now able to support a clinical diagnosis of CJD and certainly separate this from Alzheimers disease by use of a laboratory test on cerebrospinal fluid. Should so meone want this test performed they need only send frozen CSF to me at the NIH." and "...for cases that may be associated with familial forms of CJD/GSS we can provide DNS [DNA ?] testing to elucidate point mutations in the PrP gene. Moreover, Professor Collinge in London is using transgenic mice to diagnose CJD/GSS."

     Later in the discussion it was reported that in 1986 and 1990 a pre-mortem test for CJD was described in articles in the New England Journal of Medicine and Journal of Neurological Science. A joint effort by scientists from NIH and CalT ech, the test uses cerebrospinal fluid.

     In a report of 22 April 1996, Stuart Neilson of the UK said "The two references I have to the ... test are old (1986, 1990), but I have seen many claims that Harrington has published something recently... . For those that haven't heard of this, two proteins (not PrP, and not related structurally to PrP) were found in the spinal fluid of CJD pa tients. The presence is a highly sensitive indicator of CJD, but non-specific. The other medical conditions in which the pair of proteins occur can be discounted by clinical history. In principle, a similar test could be applied to cattle, dependent up on the sensitivity, specificity and particality [practicality?] of a commercially available test ... ."

     On 3 May, Peter Cowen of North Carolina State University wrote "While the CJD [test] may be impressive in terms of sensitivity..., there should be some serious pause before using the test. It may be the wrong test for the wrong disease. The problem is the prevalence of CJD is too low. At one in a million prevalence the numbers of false positives will be high, very high.

In fact the positive predictive value of the test will be only 0.000048 in a country of 100 million at-risk individuals....

     "To make matters worse, this CSF [cerebrospinal fluid] test, when positive, carries a rather ominous conclusion, i.e., a neurodegenerative syndrome leading to death-type prognosis with the positive test result, which can only be confirmed upon post mortem and with a fairly long incubation period. Life after a positive test will not be pleasant for the thousands of false positives while they are waiting for symptoms to develop. This test without a confirmatory, antemortem test seems ill founded.Testing animals for BSE also took a new turn in news that a field test using cattle urine had been developed by Dr. Harash Narang in the UK. Dr. Neilson also wrote on 26 April 1996 "The latest I heard of Harash Narang's BSE urine test was last Wedn esday, in evidence to Parliament. Guessing, (bravely or foolishly) I think this might be a redox-potential test, rather than the presence of protein or viral particles'. It is said (by Narang) to be quick and cheap. ...." [The specifics of Dr. Narang's test have not yet been made public, pending resolution of the intellectual property rights question. When details are available, they will be summarized on the ProMED page.]

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