Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice on investment decisions.
Nasdaq Apr.8 *Nasdaq Apr.1 *Index *DELL Report *PAY service

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1961.43

Nasdaq ONE-DAY SELL OFF!
Sun., Apr. 15, 2001

******************Commentary*******************
Apr.15. The impressive 32% gain last week in CISCO should come as no great surprise. Until last week, Nasdaq had lost 0.8% per day for 30 days, or 24% (Feb.24 to Apr.6). In that time, CISCO lost 49%, making it tops for recovery as I mentioned here many times in the past month. If you had been scared out of the Nasdaq by the sensational HYPE of the press media and cable TV analysts, or just got tired of watching your stocks ALWAYS go down, you missed Nasdaq's 21% rise from the recent low of 1620. Nasdaq has made bottom BUT WILL RETEST to Nasdaq 1845, forecasted by the extremely over-bought short-term stochastics at 99.85/71.91% (vs 23.77/35.12%). I mentioned here many times that the leaders on the way down, CISCO, ORACLE, and SUN MICROSYSTEMS, were making identical declines in tandem. When just CISCO rallied from Nasdaq 1620 then ALL three rallied in unison. Intermediate (90-day Nasdaq chart) stochastics are very over-bought at 99.96/41.02% (vs 27.98/28.15%). Longer-term (2-year Nasdaq chart) stochastics turned higher a week before last and rose again to a very bullish 31.48/12.89% (vs 8.04/15.01%). Nasdaq's rebound will END on Monday on profit-taking, but has great chance to RESUME Tuesday due to OPTIONS expiration next Friday. CNBC Guest Analyst Dan Niles (Lehman) predicted $88 year-end for Intel with the stock at $66 on May 30th, 2000. This inconsistent stock analyst predicts INTEL is now headed down to $12. I applied for his analyst job last Fall (this I documented). No response from Lehman Bros, not even a postcard. INTEL stochastics over-bought at 93.77/35.50% (vs completely sold out 16.38/36.91%). INTEL is headed for my $39 target price its long-term fair value. MICROSOFT stochastics are extremely over-bought at 98.84/68.94% (vs 68.33/63.56%). MICROSOFT held my forecasted $51 support, but has great resistance at $62. CISCO stochastics are an over-bought 93.38/32.72% (vs oversold stochastics 7.29/8.52%). Get CISCO on any pullback to $15. ORACLE completed a $14 base. Ranging ($14-16) Oracle stochastics are over-bought at 93.07/43.53% (vs 22.75/40.81%). MACD, RSI bullish for three weeks. WORLDCOM stochastics neutral 78.90/65.46% (vs falling 45.65/69.53%). Overhead resistance is $19-20. Support at $15-16. DELL stochastics extremely over-bought at 95.24/51.72% (vs neutral 52.34/49.22%). RSI of 67.47 is over-bought but MACD 0.54 is bullish. Negative data on PC PRICES will soon punish DELL, a SHORT sale at $28. Sun Micro stochastics over-bought at 86.53/30.60% (vs plunging 11.69/15.59%). Nasdaq rose 14% last week:CISCO up 32%, ORACLE up 14%, SUN Micro up 21% and INTEL up 19% since Apr.6. Consider globalized non-U.S. stocks.
Japan ADRs noticeably outperformed in past four weeks:
NEC(NIPNY)up 19% Canon(CAJ)up 9% Nissan(NSANY)up 4%
One year anniversary. Thanks for reading. CANADIAN STOCKS!
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