Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions.
Nasdaq April 15 -Trading Tips -Archives -Top Stocks -EMAIL ME

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1810.67

Nasdaq trending weaker-April 18, 2002

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April 18 Go To Page 1. Intel closed at 30.64 way above 90-day moving average support at 29.60. RSI, MACD went positive, stochastics stay over-bought 80%/59%. Bounced at 28.40. Intel reported that it earned $0.15 a share, no surprise, but jumped 11% on the news. Shows Wall Street was short the stock, betting on a major profit disappointment.
Microsoft closed at 56.63 above 90-day moving ave. support at 56.60. RSI negative, MACD positive, stochastics are over-bought 52%/60%. Microsoft has earnings to be reported in next few days, some blame today's pullback in both the Dow and Nasdaq on hesitation before that report. Expect no earnings surprises. Lowered expectations and analyst scrutiny are having an effect on the range of analyst's profit estimates this year. Bill Gates sold some of his holdings at 70 to 72.
Cisco closed at 15.97 above 90-day moving average support at 15.65. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics rising to over-bought 98%/74%. If Nasdaq has made an intermediate bottom, mutual funds will pile into Cisco. Company earns about $0.02 a share each quarter, Wall Street loved it at $40. Cisco CEO John Chambers lacks any credibility, with Cisco holding $16 billion. This indicates Chambers unable to locate projects returns higher than the short-term money market yields on $16 billion. How hard could it be to find investment projects yielding over 4%? Chambers claims cannot find qualified Americans to work at Cisco. Wants immigration quota lifted. Chambers, you looked in US?
Oracle closed at 11.78 above 90-day moving average support 11.70. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics fell from over-bought to 68%/66%. Oracle last week just made a 3-month low after trading at 17 twice in Feb. Oracle management has reputation for over-optimistic guidance. That began just over one year ago when Oracle was trading over 21.
Worldcom closed 6.51 above 90-day moving average support at 5.90. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics up to very over-bought 80%/78%. Stock was undervalued. Do mutual fund managers look for laggards? Worldcom was easily the biggest percentage gainer in Tuesday rally.
Dell closed at 27.37 above 90-day moving average support at 26.80. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics very over-bought 96%/68%. Stock did nothing for a year, but two years ago CNBC guests advised buy it when trading over 50. Most prominent Dell bull two years ago was very inaccurate Lehman's Dan Niles, with a buy at 53. Why analysts tell an unwitting public buy Dell Computer over 50? Ask CNBC, who has paraded these analysts nonstop on daytime talk since 1998-2000.
Sun Micro closed at 8.23 above 90-day moving ave. support at 8.22. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics went to over-bought at 75%/65%. Texas Dell thrives (home of G.Bush) while California competitors are withering. With Bush in and the Clinton team out, oil drilling gets the bucks (ENRON Ken Lay), Silicon Valley Internet dot.com is left out.
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