Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice on investment decisions.
Nasdaq Apr.15 *Nasdaq Apr.8 *Index *DELL Report *Contact ME

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 2163.41

Nasdaq WILL RETEST LOWS
Sun., Apr. 22, 2001

******************Commentary*******************
Apr. 22. Nasdaq's rebound STALLED last Monday on profit-taking, and RESUMED Tuesday primarily due to OPTIONS EXPIRATION last Friday, exactly as I forecasted Apr.15. The impressive gains last week in INTEL (up 15.3%), CISCO (up 6.5%), ORACLE (up 24.8%), and SUN Micro (up 15.3%) are no surprise. As CISCO rallied 40.5% from the recent Nasdaq low of 1620, then ALL big-cap leaders rallied in unison. At Nasdaq 1620 many average investors were scared out of stocks by sensationalist HYPE of CNBC Maria Bartiromo and Guest Stock Analyst Dan Niles (Lehman) predicting INTEL heading to $12 Last year, with INTEL at $66, Dan Niles (Lehman) predicted a record valuation of $87.50 INTEL end of year. INTEL ended last year at $30. With information like this from CNBC stock analysts, many missed a 33.5% rise from the recent Nasdaq low of 1620. Why listen to biased analysts and CNBC reporters, who don't know the difference between preferred stock and livestock. Most of them have no degree in finance and yes, they ARE the weakest LINKS. Nasdaq will be soft next week, forecasted by neutral, falling short-term stochastics at 41.59/54.63% (vs 99.85/71.91%). Intermediate (90-day Nasdaq chart) stochastics are very over-bought at 92.15/77.10% (vs 99.96/41.02%). Long-term (2-yr Nasdaq chart) stochastics moved higher 3 weeks ago and stalled out again at 55.86/15.66% (vs 31.48/12.89%). Nasdaq's REBOUND is over. INTEL stochastics are very over-bought at 98.64/65.87% (vs an over-bought 93.77/35.50%). INTEL is performing my forecasted April Rally to long-term fair value. MICROSOFT stochastics are extremely over-bought at 86.91/88.39% (vs 98.84/68.94%). MICROSOFT broke above resistance at $63 (now support) after holding $51 support in March. MICROSOFT over-bought RSI forecasts a quick move down to $64. CISCO stochastics are an over-bought 94.29/68.61% (vs over-bought 93.38/32.72%). Cisco excess inventory writedowns limit upside to $19. ORACLE completed a $14 base. Oracle stochastics are over-bought at 85.19/71.65% (vs 93.07/43.53%). RSI 75.4 (vs 58) very over-bought. WORLDCOM stochastics falling at 44.64/70.53% (vs a very neutral 78.90/65.46%). Overhead resistance at $20. Support remains $15-16. DELL stochastics remain extremely over-bought at 83.05/78.08% (vs over-bought 95.24/51.72%). RSI 69.79 (vs 67.47) is over-bought but MACD of 1.20 (vs 0.54) stays bullish. Negative data on PC SALES will punish DELL, a SHORT sale above $28. Sun Micro stochastics over-bought at 86.84/64.10% (vs similar 86.53/30.60%). Nasdaq rose 10% last week. CISCO, up 40.5% since Apr. 6, will lead any decline. With Nasdaq's rally likely to fail, diversify in global non-U.S. stocks.
Japan ADRs noticeably outperformed in past four weeks:
NEC(NIPNY)up 27% Canon(CAJ)up 13% Nissn(NSANY)up 6%
One year anniversary. Thanks for reading. CANADIAN STOCKS!
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