Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions.
Nasdaq April 18 -Trading Tips -Archives -Top Stocks -EMAIL ME

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1656.93

Nasdaq bottom near 1620-April 30, 2002

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April 30 Go To Page 1. Intel at 28.04 below 90-day moving average resistance 29. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics over-sold 20%/18%. Bounces at 28. Intel reported mid-April firm earned $0.15 a share, no surprise, but jumped 11% on the news. Shows Wall Street was short the stock. Intel fell right back to support at 28 in last 8 trading days.
Microsoft closed 52.24 below 90-day moving ave. resistance at 53.50. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics rising from over-sold to 18%/10%. Microsoft had no earnings surprise. Lower expectations and analyst scrutiny effected range of analyst's profit estimates this year. Owner Bill Gates sold some of his holdings at 70 to 72. In 10 years, will we be using PC's, and will dot.com companies need Microsoft products?
Cisco closed at 14.13 below 90-day moving average resistance 14.50. RSI, MACD negative, 23%/20% stochastics rising from over-sold. If Nasdaq has made an intermediate bottom, mutual funds will rush into Cisco. Company earns about $0.02 a share each quarter, Wall Street loved it at $40. Cisco CEO John Chambers lacks any credibility, with Cisco holding $16 billion. This indicates Chambers unable to locate projects returns higher than the short-term money market yields on $16 billion. How hard could it be to find investment projects yielding over 4%? Chambers claims cannot find qualified Americans to work at Cisco. Wants immigration quota lifted. Chambers, you looked in US?
Oracle closed 10.43 below 90-day moving average resistance 10.80. RSI, MACD negative, 22%/10% stochastics rising from over-sold. Oracle has made a 3-month low after trading at 17 twice in Feb. Oracle management has reputation for over-optimistic guidance. That began just over one year ago when Oracle was trading over 21. Oracle has peaked in long-term product development cycle just like Microsoft.
Worldcom closed 2.35 below 90-day moving average resistance 3.65. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics (stock) completely dead at 6%/5%. Will this be another bankruptcy? Mutual funds dumping what's left. Even if company earns profit, mutual funds ruin any survival chances.
Dell closed at 25.57 below 90-day moving average resistance at 26.30. RSI, MACD negative, 12%/18% stochastics rose up from over-sold. Two years ago, CNBC paraded guests daily recommending Dell at 50. Biggest CNBC bull 2 years ago Lehman's Dan Niles, with strong buy at 53. Why did analysts tell an unwitting public to buy Dell Computer over 50? Ask CNBC, who paraded the incompetent analysts nonstop.
Sun Micro closed 8.23 below 90-day moving average resistance 8.40. RSI, MACD negative, 21%/10% stochastics popped from over-sold. Sun makes servers for Internet infrastructure. With the Bush team in, Clinton force gone, oil drilling gets the bucks, Internet dot.com gets left out. Sun Micro is the only bigcap Nasdaq leader not losing since April 17. Stock has made money when bought below 7.00 per share.
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