Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be solely relied on for your investment decisions.
*Nasdaq June 10 *Joe Osha *Sitemap *Analysis *Daily only $10

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1542.96

June 19, 2002 - Nasdaq Tech Rally Over

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June 19 Go To Page 1 Nasdaq Composite closed at 1542.96 on June 18
Intel closed 22.02 -0.54 (-2.4%) below moving average resistance 22.30 RSI, MACD negative, stochastics fell, still over-bought at 70%/76%. Play Intel as an over-sold bargain on dip below 18. Late October 1999, Merrill Lynch downgraded Intel at 80 (pre-split) trashing down to 72, and over 6 months Intel went straight to 144 (pre-split). So, Joe Osha replaced the 1999 Merrill semi analyst. Joe Osha downgraded Intel again on June 13, comparing it to a Japanese real estate bubble when Osha worked in Japan for 5 years (on CNBC). Funny, but Intel is not in the real estate business. Summer seasonally slow for chip-makers leaders Intel and AMD, time is now to buy them low, Intel-18, AMD-7
Microsoft closed 55.99 +0.31 (+0.6%) above moving average support 54.65. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics very over-bought 90%/86% for 7 days. Microsoft settled with SEC for earnings manipulation that would put another business firm out of business. How? Microsoft's 600 lawyers. The U.S. Justice Dept. does not have time or manpower to spend on case. The 9 state attorney generals will settle in similar appeasement. Why? Microsoft can bring jobs to their states, JOBS.
Cisco closed 14.71 -0.36 (-2.4%) below its moving average resistance 15.00. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics turned neutral at 44%/34%. Cisco has a huge chart gap from 13.50 to 15.15 still partially left from May 7. Traders won't touch Cisco until 13.50, then gap it to 16 again.
Oracle closed 8.98 -0.22 (-2.4%) above moving average support 8.70. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics easing but over-bought 83%/77%. Oracle, like Microsoft, has peaked in long-term product development cycle. There is no growth in database management software business. To top it off, government spending redirected to Texas TECHS (Dell).
Worldcom closed 1.56 +0.11 (+7.6%) below mov aver resistance 1.60. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics rising to neutral 40%/29%. Like the busted Global Crossing and Metromedia FN, mutual funds dumped Worldcom. But surprisingly, French funds have bought about 10% on June 7 turnaround. Cash flow from MCI should keep them afloat.
Dell closed 26.71 +0.03 (+0.1%) above moving average support 26.40. RSI, MACD neutral, stochastics rose to very over-bought 90%/78%. Biggest CNBC bull 2 years ago was Lehman's Dan Niles (strong buy at 53). Niles pushed Compaq at 22 a share a year ago. Niles worked for Compaq 8 years. Claimed on CNBC that he does not own stocks he pushed (Compaq). How about friends with Compaq retirement plans?
Sun closed 6.35 +0.07 (+1.1%) below moving average resistance 6.36. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics spurting to over-bought 80%/52%. Sun makes servers for the Internet infrastructure. With Bush's team in, oil firms get the government bucks, Internet dot.com goes broke. Silicon Valley located in Democratic California, hurting Oracle, Sun.
How to Use Site. Carving up Arthur Andersen Nasdaq Big-Caps
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