PUBLISHED SAMPLE STOCK MARKET DIRECTION © Sept. 27, 2004
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STOCK MARKET DIRECTION by Steve Zito Newsletter on Market Direction
Technical Indicator Analysis of the Dow and Nasdaq Composite Index
Redistribution only with permission of webmaster writer Steve Zito
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STOCK MARKET DIRECTION by Steve Zito Newsletter for Monday, Sept. 27, 2004
Information in this newsletter based on prices from Friday, Sept. 24, 2004
Dow Jones Industrial Average
---------------------------------------- 10,047.24 + 8.34 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq Composite Index
----------------------------------------- 1,879.48 - 6.95 (-0.37%)
Standard and Poors 500 Index
----------------------------------------- 1,110.11 + 1.75 (+0.16%)
10-Year Treasury Note yield
-------------------------------------------- 4.031% +0.003
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE analysis:
Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10,047.24 +8.34 at 1.03% below its 7-day
moving average. The Dow posted a one-day oversold bounce which I had written
to be expected by next Tuesday. Now that the Dow had a "bounce" it can resume
falling for basic reasons to be eventually evident after it goes below 10,000.
With the fourth Hurricane (Jeanne) punishing Florida this weekend for putting
Bush in the White House in election 2000 (Florida was deciding electoral vote)
and gasoline prices expected to jump higher any day from supply interruptions,
the buzz about global warming and dependence on imported crude oil in America
has risen from the noise level of an ant pissing on cotton to a deafening roar
like that from Americans protesting deportation of Cat Stevens back to London.
About 2 people protested Cat Stevens appearing on Tom Ridge's No-Fly blacklist,
one was Cat's agent in London, and the other was Cat's agent in New York City.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040926/wl_uk_afp/us_attacks_air_britain_040926095301
While Cat sings about "get on the peace train" the Pentagon is busy tracking him.
During Vietnam, Jane Fonda and peacenik California politician Tom Hayden protested.
During the first Bush regime, it was Alex Baldwin and Kim Basinger touting Clinton.
The Baldwins were later joined in an anti-gov message by the singers, Dixie Chicks.
Every time famous personalities say war is bad they are branded as unpatriotic
by the West Virginia yahoos and Oklahoma roughnecks who carry guns and vote Bush.
It's why Bush has his support in 31 states from Texas across the South to Florida,
north to Wisconsin and west to Nevada, while Kerry has California, a Northeastern
bloc of New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, and the Upper Midwest to Chicago.
That's right. Kerry only has large urban areas around L.A., New York, and Chicago.
Of course that is where most of the educated Americans have moved to work at banks
on Wall Street or entertainment in Hollywood, as well as food exchanges in Chicago.
New York City is expected to vote 80% Democratic, but that leaves 200,000 for Bush
and they are not policemen and firemen. The Bush supporters in New York are owners.
Owners of real estate who now pay no taxes and watch holdings grow 20% every year.
Owners of baseball teams who sell 6.5 million tickets a year for Yankees and Mets.
Owners of insurance companies who don't have to pay when planes crash insured WTC.
Bush's central platform is ownership, preaching everyone should own, whether it's
home (67% of America), car (2 for every American family), pets (120 million dogs),
or a domestic servant (20 million illegal immigrants that slave cleaning houses).
The premise is simple. Success in America is measured by how much each person owns,
net wealth, and the dollar value is how Americans keep score of who is not a loser.
From when kids start school at age 5, Americans are taught you're a winner or loser.
When Kerry spoke at U.P. Wharton School last week, Kerry said any CEO who promised
a project (referring to Bush's in Iraq) costs $1.7 billion and would pay for itself
(out of future crude oil exports) who then went to stockholders with a bill for over
$200 billion, would be fired. Wharton students did not clap, did not cheer, but sat
dumbfounded, because every Wharton student knows, Bush gets his cut on the back end.
With crude oil prices at $49 (all time high), any oil company will love to hire Bush
when he gets out of the White House. Wharton students are not representative of the
average American voter. Kerry should appear on Oprah or O'Reilly and tell a story to
10 million TV viewers with the education of donut holes, instead of Wharton classes
where the average SAT score is 1400. That's the average. Many have much higher SAT's.
Higher than Stanford, higher than Harvard, higher than Yale. Wharton has the highest.
I can tell you, Wharton students with high I.Q.'s vote Republican to get lower taxes.
Not because it is good for the economy, because Wharton has the highest starting pay.
The average starting salary for a Wharton Graduate is over $100,000 a year (age 26).
Bush and Cheney have crooked smiles, and smirk when talking about serious problems.
Bush released 300,000 barrels of crude to help refineries with no product to refine,
signed the tax cut extension Congress rushed through last Thursday. Bush entertained
his puppet Allawi from Iraq who said free elections will be held in January, but only
in those areas controlled by the U.S. military. No American cares anymore ever since
football season started for American men, and the new Fall TV season began for women.
Worst of all, TV commentators telling Americans to get out and vote, that it's been
a national disgrace that "100 million don't even bother to vote when 536 Floridians
decided the last Presidential election in 2000" (that was Bush's margin of victory).
What these moronic TV announcers don't say is that Americans are not given choices.
Where are candidates representing the poor, the sick, criminals or illegal aliens,
which together make up more than 50% of the U.S. population? That's a majority.
The most popular program on cable is HBO's Sopranos, which depicts Italian-Americans
as stupid, crude, violent gangsters who end up dead or informants (Ya wearin' a wire?)
when Italian-Americans are just the opposite, filmmakers like Francis Ford Coppola or
Martin Scorcese who make family fare like the Godfather 1,2,3, Casino, Streets of N.Y.
or actors like Robert DeNiro who play wonderful people like Don Corleone or Al Capone.
Robert DeNiro recently responded to accusations he denigrates his ancestry. Was that,
"Whaaat, youse want me ta be sum kinda college boy like Robert Redford, Paul Newman?"
America is a country which gives preferential treatment in hiring, college admittance,
to people based on minority status EXCEPT for Italians, who are regarded as mobsters.
A recent movie by Steven Spielberg (who always complains about HIS ethnic group) was
blasted for Italian stereotypes and Italian-American groups demanded it be re-edited.
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40437
Dow stochastics rose from very oversold 0%/21% Thursday to less so 18%/15% on Friday.
The Dow Jones had a negative month compared to gains for Nasdaq and the S and P 500.
Readers bought DJVVX from 0.90 to 1.00 last Tuesday in the FED funds late rate rally.
DJX Oct 102 put option DJVVX at 1.90 -0.20 Bid 1.75 Ask 1.95 vol 211 open int 5,640.
Friday's range 2.10 to 1.70. Contract range 0.85-5. Bought DJX Oct 101 puts at 1.15.
DJX Oct 101 put option DJVVW at 1.40 +0.05 Bid 1.15 Ask 1.35 vol 542 open int 7,039.
Friday's range 1.40 to 1.25, and the October DJX puts expire on Dow Oct. 15 opening.
Both the oil and oil service stocks have gained sharply in the last five weeks. The
gains are supposedly based on fundamentals and mimic the rise in crude oil prices.
In fact, the XOI had a 20-point day similar to a blowoff top last week, and the oil
service OSX index is likely to see nice profit-taking on one bad day breaking 118.
OSX closed at 120.39 +2.34 (+1.98%) opening at 118.04 with daily range 118.02-120.77.
Buy the following OSX puts for December 95 at a Bid price 0.20, or Dec 90p at 0.10.
Dec 95 OSXXS 0.30 -0.25 Bid 0.30 Ask 0.50 volume 20 (all at 0.30) open interest 5,154
Contract range 0.30 to 6.00
Dec 90 OSXXR 0.40 -0.00 Bid 0.10 Ask 0.30 volume 0 open interest 1,582 none traded.
Contract range 0.40 to 6.40
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX analysis:
Nasdaq Composite closed 1,879.48 -6.95 at 0.82% below its seven-day moving average.
Nasdaq stochastics remained oversold from 6%/27% on Thursday down to 0%/2% Friday.
Tech heavy Nasdaq has recovered half of what it lost in the decline into mid-August.
That's normal after a severe selloff, and tech prospects for next year look lousy.
Thanks for reading this edition of Stock Market Direction by Steve Zito.
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