THE NASDAQ PAGE by STEVE ZITO

Steve Zito (MS Finance) is a technical analyst who also uses economic and technical analysis to forecast general direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice for investment decision-making. If you have a specific question use Feedback
---Home Page ---INDEX ---Today's Update ---MODEL PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ INDICATORS
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE

Eight of nine indicators negative
Sat. April 15, 2000

NASDAQ NOW 3321
CHART INDICATORS
Daily chart: 20-day moving average
Intel at 110
Negative trend
resistance 128

Microsoft at 74
Negative trend
resistance 89

Cisco at 57
Negative trend
resistance 69

Oracle at 63
Negative trend
resistance 77

MCI WCOM at 38
Negative trend
resistance 43

Dell at 47
Negative trend
resistance 52

Daily Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4243

Weekly Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4149

Monthly Nasdaq COMP
Positive
long-term support 3093
The MACD and stochastics on the Weekly and Monthly charts still show an overbought condition!

******************Commentary*******************
April 15. The big six of the Nasdaq told us what the Nasdaq COMP would do. They comprise 22% of total capitalization. Let's take them individually. Intel Corp (INTC) broke down on March 28 at 144, but MACD and stochastics turned negative several days before as noted on March 23. The MACD, RSI and stochastics are even more negative today, with INTC at 110. Look for INTC to be weak after earnings. It is way above its historical P/E range of 34, and still trading 65% above the price seen last November. Microsoft(MSFT) on the other hand, has declined severely from 115 to 74 since March 24. MSFT is oversold with stochastics at 3% and MACD bottoming. Watch a substantial move next month after the late April court hearing in MSFT. I will add MSFT calls to the MODEL PORTFOLIO Monday if the NASDAQ COMP trades below 3300.
CISCO(CSCO) at 57 is below CHART resistance at 69, and down from 82 on March 24. The MACD, RSI and stochastics look terrible. Friday, this one went straight down to 55 as I forecasted in my Nasdaq Page April 11. CSCO is the most widely held stock in the world. No one has sold any CISCO shares in 4 years, until Friday, when 119,000,000 shares changed hands. It has the second largest market cap behind GE. Look for CSCO to lead the Nasdaq bear market down. Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is like MSFT, oversold at 63, well below resistance at 77. On March 24, ORCL traded at 89, plunged to 65 and then rebounded to 88 all in a week.
MCI Worldcom (WCOM) at 45 on March 24, now is 38 today, just below resistance of 43. It is the safest play of the six Nasdaq leaders. Dell (DELL) is trading at 47, up from 35 two months ago, but down 12 points from March 24.
Friday, the Nasdaq COMP traded down 9.7%. On April 11 I predicted that the Nasdaq COMP would trade within an 11% range of 3650 (3250 to 4050). Is the bull market over? Only for long-term investors. The traders will get back in when they see at least any attempt at a rally, but do not expect that to occur Monday, April 17. Worldwide this weekend, stocks are plummeting. Taiwan dropped 5.7% in Saturday's short session, and Japan's Nikkei Dow Jones is expected to fall 8 to 9% when it opens on Sunday night, April 16 (Monday 4/17 in Tokyo).

Copyright Notice, all pages Copyright©2000 and are made available as a service to the global Internet community. Pages may not be reproduced or sold in any medium without explicit, written permission from Steve Zito.