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July 16, 2000. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 4246.18.
The Internet troops led the Nasdaq Index higher for a 7.3% gain in the past 3 days. The Big Six stocks averaged a 1.38% gain Friday compared to the 1.7% rise in the Nasdaq Composite. Intel is making new record highs but on average daily volume of 19 million shares compared to April's 27 million the week it first hit 145. Microsoft is falling back to ease an over-bought condition. It has plenty of supply at 84. Cisco Systems led the Big Six on 58 million shares, gaining 4.6%. Why a stock with a P/E at 193.34 is being added to portfolios is a mystery, yet Cisco's stochastics are improving, and Cisco's MACD gave a buy signal Thursday. The heavy volume confirms fund managers are in buying, in expectation of the usual quarterly earnings surprise. There is no room for disappointment. Oracle is holding ground, and with the Nasdaq soaring, and fund managers looking for relative value, watch Oracle play "catch up". Stochastics turned positive in the past 2 days. A less risky Worldcom has been very strong for 3 weeks but the exploding stock price is limited by the over-bought stochastics. Dell exited the WEB PC business, a dismal failure, and was rewarded with a 3-point gain by day-trading momentum players, pushing Dell's price/earnings to 82.39. Strength in the Nasdaq Composite Index remains limited when measured by chart stochastics on the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, extremely over-bought for 2 days. Nasdaq will head lower Monday, and rise later into options expiration. Soon after July stock option expiration on July 22, expect Nasdaq to have a meaningful correction led by Intel, Cisco, and Dell, the hardware makers trading like Internet IPO's. Recent brokerage downgrades hurt PC and semiconductor stocks, but only for the day of release.
5-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4243
20-period moving average 4237
MACD 5.12/4.88 positive
RSI 56.73 neutral
STOCHASTICS 72.87/64.76% positive
15-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4238
20-period moving average 4222
MACD 15.96/16.00 negative
RSI 68.25 neutral
STOCHASTICS 81.40/81.69% negative
30-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4233
20-period moving average 4202
MACD 34.49/35.74 negative
RSI 71.97 positive
STOCHASTICS 89.60/88.86% positive, extremely over-bought
60-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4226
20-period moving average 4162
MACD 56.50/52.61 positive
RSI 87.10 positive
STOCHASTICS 91.69/91.33% positive, extremely over-bought
Daily Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4120
20-period moving average 3985
MACD 94.75/73.80 positive
RSI 55.85 neutral
STOCHASTICS 86.33/74.59% positive, over-bought
Weekly Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4010
20-period moving average 3918
MACD 40.60/38.21 positive
RSI 39.44 neutral
STOCHASTICS 75.66/56.34% positive
Monthly Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 3816
20-period moving average 3333
MACD 593.86/549.76 positive
RSI 69.81 neutral
STOCHASTICS 63.46/70.04% negative
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