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GEESE FLYING-FORMATION DISBANDED AND BIG COMPETITION AHEAD
January 7, 2002
In Chinese animal stories, tales that feature the goose or gander are likely to be the most numerous because this bird has been deeply rooted in Chinese daily life (food, literature, history, poem, opera, philosophy...etc). Those that live in the metropolitan DC area can easily spot this migrating birds, during late fall, flying and honking in V formaton. That image often reminds the many immigrants of this area of their childhood bird-watching days.
The migratory habits of this bird have been associated in the 1960's with the Asian economic growth and hierarchial manner in which Japan and the 4 Asian "small dragons" interact as : GEESE FLYING FORMATION led by Japan.
With the Japanese bubble economy busted, a really big dragon, PRC, revived by its REFORM AND OPEN-UP policy of Teng, the Shortie, has shadowed the Asia economic arena
Foreign capital flowed into China, as into a black hole, far exceeding all others' shares. For instance, during 1999, there was 900 billion US$ capital injected into Asia; China won 300 billions. The most interesting phenomena is that Taiwan, ROC, the deadliest "enemy" of PRC is among the top investors in mainland of China.
In 1990, among the whole amount of investment in Asia, Japan provided 26%; Europe and USA supplied 24%. But,in 1999 Japan's contribution dropped to 8% while the Western countries increased their part to 36%--stark evidence of Japanese economic decline in the region.
The advent of Communist China as an economic power in Asia had been forseen by Japanese authorities. In a trade white-paper, they admitted : the geese-formation leader, Japan, is no longer in the leading position. The dismantling of the geese formation resulted in a broken, if not orderly, manner of the old trade pattern. Right now, the geese are flying in all directions. The Japanese are predicting that, starting in 2002, there will be intense competition among Asia's developing countries.
-What are the strategies of the competitors - countries or investors?
-They form economic groups -ASEAN; ASEAN +3; or free trade zones
-They look for partners to have smooth penetration into PRC - the Japanese has been searching intermediaries/partners from Taiwan;
-Multinational enterprises seek merger, purchase, transfer of properties...as means to enlarge themselve and become stronger in competition
-Private investors are also looking for beachheads into their desired region or area.
As a result, 2002 is critical to many enterprises/investors, regardless of their nationality
John Nesbitt has pointed out in his book MEGATRENDS IN ASIA. To do business in Asia, a Chinese partner or consultant is very essential. If you need one, PRO is always there ready to help you.
E-mail: VJCHANG@hotmail.com
Tel/Fax USA : (301) 438-7439
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