The definition of the yield curve
Different shapes of the yield curve
Theories of the yield curve
Visual approach of the yield curve
The
definition of the yield curve
The "term structure" of interest rates refers to the relationship
between interest rates of different maturities. When interest rates
of bonds are plotted against their terms, this is called the "yield
curve". Economists and investors believe that the shape of the yield
curve reflects the market's future expectation for interest rates
and the conditions for monetary policy.
Usually, longer term interest rates are higher than shorter term
interest rates. This is called a "normal yield curve" and
is thought to reflect the higher "inflation-risk premium"
that investors demand for longer term bonds. When interest rates
change by the same amount for bonds of all terms, this is called
a "parallel shift" in the yield curve since the shape of the yield
curve stays the same, although interest rates are higher or lower
"across the curve". A change in the shape of the yield curve is
called a "twist" and means that interest rates for bonds of some
terms change differently than bond of other terms.
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Different
shapes of the yield curve
A small or negligible difference between short and long term interest
rates occurs later in the economic cycle when interest rates increase
due to higher inflation expectations and tighter monetary policy.
This is called a "shallow" or "flat"
yield curve and higher short term rates reflect less available
money, as monetary policy is tightened, and higher inflation later
in the economic cycle.
When the difference between long and short term interest rates
is large, the yield curve is said to be "steep". This is
thought to reflect a "loose" monetary policy which means credit
and money is readily available in an economy. This situation usually
develops early in the economic cycle when a country's monetary authorities
are trying to stimulate the economy after a recession or slowdown
in economic growth. The low short term interest rates reflect the
easy availability of money and low or declining inflation.
Higher longer term interest rates reflect investors' fears of future
inflation, recognizing that future monetary policy and economic
conditions could be much different.
Tight monetary policy results in short term interest rates being
higher than longer term rates. This occurs as a shortage of money
and credit drives up the cost of short term capital. Longer term
rates stay lower, as investors see an eventual loosening of monetary
policy and declining inflation. This increases the demand for long
term bonds which lock in the higher long term rates.
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Theories
of the yield curve
Economists and financial academics have developed theories to explain
the shape of the yield curve.
The "expectations" theory
The "expectations" theory states that since short term bonds can
be combined for the same time period as a longer term bond, the
total interest earned should be equivalent, given the efficiency
of the market and the chance for arbitrage (speculators using opportunities
to make money). Mathematically, the yield curve can then be used
to predict interest rates at future dates.
The "segmentation" theory
The "segmentation" theory explains the shape of the yield curve
by investors' term preferences. Some investors need to deploy
their funds for specific periods of time, hence a preference for
long or short term bonds which is reflected in the shape of the
yield curve. An inverted curve can then be seen to reflect a definite
investor preference for longer term bonds.
With powerful computers and mathematical techniques, investors and
academics are constantly striving to build models which explain the
shape of the yield curve and hopefully provide insight into the future
direction of interest rates. This has given rise to "yield curve"
strategies which are employed by bond managers to add value to their
portfolios.
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Ok, now I understand these concepts. I would like to see some illustrations.
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