Macroeconomic Modelling

Econometric modelling is becoming an increasingly important part of economic analysis for both economic forecasting and for policy analysis and development. As a consequence, econometrically based macroeconomic models are being used by more and more. However, in my experience those who regularly make use of econometrically derived macroeconomic models remains relatively small. (The number of economists with practical experience building, developing or maintaining macroeconometric models is even smaller.) As a consequence many people see most macroeconomic models as a black box based upon a set of questionable assumptions and therefore treat the results from these models as highly suspect, ignoring the many useful and beneficial insights that can be obtained from these models.

A further problem that I have found is that most of the literature on macroeconometric modelling is scattered throughout various working papers, journal articles, documentation volumes etc and that it is often difficult to get hold of. By providing as many links as possible to modelling related resources on the internet I aim to improve the resources and flow of knowledge about modelling related topics. Hopefully, these resources will also help non-modellers to learn about the techniques used in various models and help break down the suspicicous 'black box' view of models so that we can all benefit from the insights that they can provide.

Australian Models

There are currently 3 main dynamic models of the Australian economy - MM2 (the Murphy Model), the Access Economics Model and TRYM (Treasury Model). I haven't located any resources on the internet relating to MM2 or Access yet, but if you know of any, please send me an email.

There are also several CGE macro models related to Australia such as ORANI and the MONASH model. ABARE have also published some documentaion describing their MEGABARE and GIGABARE models.

Another site with information to people interested in economic models of the Australian economy is the EMBA site. This site contains information about EMBA activities as well as brief decsriptions of the Murphy, TRYM, and MONASH Australian models and the G-cubed and MSG multi-country models.

Overseas Models by Country

CANADA

Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM) - Documentation on the CPAM model from the Bank of Canada.
This section is still under construction. Comments/suggestions to justin.douglas@iname.com.

UNITED KINGDOM

ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (U.K.) - The Bureau aims to improve the accessibility to and understanding of macroeconomic models of the UK economy. Their site includes information on models used by the Bank of England, HM Treasury, London Business School, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Oxford Economic Forecasting and Strathclyde University.

UNITED STATES

This section is still under construction. Comments/suggestions to justin.douglas@iname.com.

MULTI-COUNTRY MODELS

This section is still under construction. Comments/suggestions to justin.douglas@iname.com.

MODELLING SOFTWARE

TSP International - TSP is my favourite econometrics software. It contains a number of different model solution procedures and I find it quite easy to use.