The Road to Retirement City Archive

"In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." -Friedrich Nietzsche

             "The Road to Retirement City"

          A 1998 Stock Market Analogy, by T.Whitman


                       Chapter 2 
 

  The three pedestrians now begin to trek into the wilderness. They were just 
entering a stretch of desolate flat land when JK found a newspaper that had 
fallen from the early morning delivery truck. 

  "Check it out guys," JK says, "They're havin' a national championship playoff 
in NCAA Football. 

  "BS!" TW butts in. 

  "Bowl Series?" MK asks. 

  "NO, bull sh**" TW answers, "There are 2 undefeated teams, several more 
with 1 loss, AND the two undefeated teams are not even playing in the 
championship game. It is logically impossible to determine the best team if two 
teams are undefeated, and have not played in head to head competition." 

  "Since when did logic apply to anything?" MK says. "I think that this journey 
down Bull Market Highway disconnected with logic long ago." 

  "Sad, but true, I'm afraid." TW replies. "Look at the way these people are 
driving." He points to the rear. 

  At that point, a large 'S& P 500 Index' bus comes swerving up from behind, 
barely under control. 

  "It's stopping." JK says. 

  "Look, it's DC!" MK says. "He's getting out." 

  The truck had stopped, and DC did a slow exit down the steps. 



  "DC, man, what are you doin' here? I figured with you're good luck, you'd be 
jumpin' the ramp tonite." MK says. 

  "I was getting awfully jittery riding that bus. It was going awfully fast. As a 
matter of fact, I don't believe 
that I've ever been on a S&P 500 bus that did over P/E 30." DC replies. 
 
  "Wow, at that rate, they could probably make it over the river, even with all 
that weight." JK calculates. 

  "Mathematically possible," MK chimes in. 

  "But logically very unlikely," TW says. 

  "Why's that?" DC cracks back. "Just because it hasn't happened in the last 
2000 years doesn't mean it can't happen now. Things are different now." 

  "Well, Mr. New pair of dimes, because that bus has to maintain that speed 
all the way there," TW answers back. "The engine can't fail. The tires can't 
fail. They can't run out of gas, have a mechanical failure, or a human error. 
Seems like a long shot to me." 

  "That's why I got off." DC says. "I was kinda uncomfortable in there. Not only 
were they driving too fast, but the bus was full of some real Yahoo's. They were 
gambling in the aisles." 

  "No kidding," TW replies. "We're they betting on who'll make it over the ramp?" 

  "Exactly," DC retorts. " There were some guys making a killing on that bus - 
and, some of them were losing a bundle. They called it 'options'." 

  "Did you gamble any?" TW asks. 

  "Not me," JK answers, "but I placed a couple of bets for MK." 

  "OK, you got me.. I did make a couple of bets. One to make it, and another 
to crash. What happened, man?" MK asks. 

  "Well, the first bet was a loser, but the second one is yet to be determined." 
DC replies. 

  "D*m* " MK yells, "I know that 'Intel' mobile is not going to make it over. 
I'm going to at least win the second bet." 

  JK tosses the sports section aside, and starts reading the weather... "Hey! 
There's a 75% chance of heavy "capital loss" thunderstorms tonight. It looks 
like Hurricane 'Impeachment' is bearing down on the east coast. 

  "Let me see that." TW demands. "Looks like the west coast is being raked by a 
'Cheap Import' El Nino- and Latin America is being hit with a 'Commodity 
Collapse' storm." 

  "I don't want to get soaked in a 'capital loss' thunderstorm," JK states. 
"Can't we find some shelter, before it hits?" 

  "We can always get under one of the 'cash' underpasses," MK says. 

  "Probably not a bad idea," TW replies. "I understand that a 'precious metal' 
based vehicle weathers storms real well, though." 

  "What's so great about a 'precious metal' based vehicle," DC butts in. 

  "Paper vehicles have nearly always failed in the past," TW rebuts. "The 
vehicle design always reverts back to a solid base. Paper based vehicles work 
great for a while, but they are frequently crushed by Recessionville storms. 
The Recessionville area is very stormy." 

  "Why haven't we seen any of those 'precious metal' cars passing us then?" DC 
says. " All I've seen lately is a Semiconductor Index truck blowing by... I'm 
gonna hold on to this 'Intel' cab voucher." 

  "A 'precious metal' based vehicle will be along shortly. When the storms start, 
they take off." TW answers. 

  Meanwhile, Abbie C. and Joey B. were still pushing the pedal down in their P/E-30, 
and were squirming with anticipation, when a car whizzes past. 

  "What the h*ll is that!" Joey blurts out. 

  A sexy sports car xooms by. Abby makes out the license plate- it reads 'XMCM'. 
Only seconds later, the clouds open up and spill down a drenching rain. 

  "Must be Hurricane 'Impeachment' causing this. Joey suggests. 

  "No, I bet it's the El Nino effect from the 'Asian' Depression. Abby retorts. 
"No big deal, we'll drive right through it." 

  They hardly slow down for the inclement weather. Abby pops open a cold IPO beer, 
takes a swig, and flips the wipers on to high. 

  Back up the road, the four pedestrians have stopped under the 'cash' underpass 
for shelter, as the lightning begins to flash. 

  "As if we weren't going slow enough-" MK mutters. 

  TW sits on the edge of the road, as a vehicle approaches. It's a Micron Turbo 
Hype, and it's obviously out of control. The Micron Turbo Hype blows TW into a 
concrete pillar. He bounces off, and lands on his back in a daze. 

  "Are you OK?" JK asks. 

  "Yeah, I must have misjudged the speed of that car. I just can't believe that 
an old Micron Turbo Hype can actually go that fast." TW says. "That's not logical 
at all." 

  "Now what did I tell you about logic?" MK says. 

  "Yeah, yeah, I think I get the picture." TW replies. "Logic doesn't apply on 
Bull Market Highway." 

  The winds begin to whip fiercely, and the foursome cover their heads and cower 
under the 'cash' underpass. 

  "Man!" JK barks, "Is this hurricane 'Impeachment?'" 

  "Why didn't someone back at the Young Investor's Ball warn us about this 
hurricane?" MK demands. 

  "I told everyone that I could that this was coming- most of them didn't listen,
like you," TW pans. "That John guy from the New York Post was saying the same 
thing." TW snaps back.

  "I haven't liked the look of those lagging 'DOW Transport' clouds for quite a 
while." TW adds. 

  "Ha, Ha. Is that another one of your 'technical indications' of disaster, TW?" 
DC chuckles. 

  "That's right, ignore the "Dow Theory" of forecasting if you want, but it has 
proven to be an accurate predictor of 'bearish' storms. Once those 'Dow Transport' 
clouds start falling, look out, " TW snaps back. 

  The rain begins to fall. 

  Will hurricane 'Impeachment' wipe the speeding drunks off the road? Will the 
dam at 'Asset Lake' burst and cause a terrible flood? Will our frightened 
pedestrians catch the 'precious metals' vehicle, or be content to wait it out 
under the 'cash' overpass? 

  Stay tuned to a financial news outlet near you. 


On to Chapter 3: 
 The Road To Retirement City: Chapter 3 



Š1998 M.T. Whitman
Links to other sites on the Web
Fiend's Superbear Page
Silicon Investor
InvestSig Page
Robotman
Yahoo Finance
IQC charts
email: twhitman@oocities.com
This page hosted by Get your own Free Home Page