THE ARCHIVES (Previous Chapters: Start here)JK spies a glossy paper lying on the shoulder. He picks it up, and begins to read: Racing the Sunset
Most every bicyclist has had the 'Racing the Sunset' experience. In the summertime, there are only two times of day when you can ride a bike and avoid the searing summer heat. Since most normal folks have jobs, they have no time for riding in the early morning. Weekends are an exception, but if you're like me, you like to catch a few extra winks on the weekend mornings. That leaves the prime time for summer cycling as the evening hours, just prior to sunset.
The sun begins to wain, and the temperature drops to a bearable level in the early evening. So you plan a ride for that evening. You always plan on getting back home a few minutes before sunset. But you push it. You go somewhere extra, or make a stop, but unless you are totally anal about time- You end up turning back for home a littttle bit too late to make it home at a leisurely pace. You know it's dangerous-but you do it just the same.
If you are returning in a westerly direction, like I do, you 'chase' the sun as it starts to fall behind the hills and trees. You come to a clearing, and your heart races- You've caught up to the sun. Then you top a hill into the shade. D*mn, you're losing. Then comes the next high ground, and you catch it again.
It is a parallel to life itself. You rush to catch the sun, but just as you get into the sunlight, and feel the warmth of the rays, you're back into the darkness. You could stop and drink in the sun, but you must keep moving towards the goal, or you will be left in the dark. The sun stands still for no man.
It is time to check on our January predictions, and see how much editing we're going to have to do to get it right. In the financial world, we hit a few correctly.
Here's one that looks to be on:
Commodities, on the other hand have become quite unpopular. Pork recently hit a low not seen since the 1930's. When adjusted for inflation, pork prices are now actually only a fraction of their price during the depths of the great depression. Oil is in similar trouble, and even gold is as cheap as it's been in decades. If you believe in buying when the blood is in the streets, note that these areas appear to be bleeding heavily.
The Clinton predictions were on target (in a non-committal kind of way)
Republicans will bring forth sordid details in a long senate impeachment trial. Clinton and his supporters will continue to push for 'censure', and his lawyers will stall as long as they are legally allowed. Clinton must either be tried, or he must admit criminal wrongdoing and work a plea bargain. His defiant stance thus far indicates his unwillingness to confess.
Some have suggested that Clinton will stall until January 20, to provide Gore two full terms, and then resign with granted immunity from prosecution. This does seem logically possible, so don't count it out. If not, then look for a long, bitter trial in the Senate. The outcome would be too close to call.
The baseball prediction looks to be about half right: The home run record is being challenged again- but by the same two guys.
In Professional Baseball, the highest paid team in baseball will once again win the World Series. The owners will get greedy, and juice the ball up even more. A yet to be determined hitter or hitters will once again challenge the home run season record. The public will eat it up.
I am still looking for this one to materialize:
Larry Flynt runs for public office as a democrat on the 'Year 2K/1st amendment' platform, and narrowly loses. (NOTE: This only happens if Clinton keeps his popularity high)
But where's the bear Market TW? You ask. Take a look at the A/D line my friend. The average stock is STILL in a Bear market. As a matter of fact, the A/D line just hit new lows this August. The public, meanwhile is still enamored with their beloved blue chip technology stocks, which are holding up the almighty Dow Industrials and the NASDAQ index.
The inflation/deflation war is still being waged, but inflation appears to be getting the upper hand in the U.S.A. Bond yields have climbed steadily since bottoming last fall. Oil prices have risen better than 50%, and metals have also been on the move. Real estate continues to inflate as the consumer takes advantage of the tax laws by building, inhabiting a few years, and then selling for tax free capital gains.
So- I'm sticking with the predictions that are not wrong already. Good Luck on the Road.
Written by TW
"Hey! It's another fiction article by TW." JK yells to his partner.
"Who is this Clinton jerk again?" DC asks.
"I dunno, a crooked politician I think. Who cares?" JK answers.
A vehicle approaches the pedestrians from behind. They recognize it as the 'Put-mobile' from back at the Bear Den Tavern.
Frozen Fish, Luc, and Myth stagger out of the car.
"Look it's Myth and the guys from the 'Bear Den'." JK says. "How did you get in there Myth? I thought you were in the 'gold' truck."
"Me and AR jumped off that stupid 'gold truck' after it started running the wrong way. In a hurry I might add." Myth replies.
"What happened to TW then?" DC asks Myth.
"Oh he got out before we did. He's up the road a little ways. Not far though. H*ll, you could probably catch him if you run." Myth states. "You guys wanna ride? We're gonna put some CAT fuel in this 'put-mobile', and she's gonna fly."
"Ummm, no thanks, Myth. We'll just play it safe and walk for now."
AR chimes in. "You guys go ahead, I think I'll walk a while too."
Luc starts jabbering. "There's gonna be a disaster! This piece of sh*t road is gonna collapse. The Bond cars are gonna wreck it. You've GOT to ride in a 'put-mobile' or miss out on the gains....yadda yadda CRASH yadda yadda PAIN yadda yadda"
Frozen Fish stuffs Luc back into the back seat of the car, and Myth jumps in the passenger side. They immediately take off in the wrong direction.
On up the highway, Abbey C and Joey B are racing up the road after the close call with the 'inflation' winds.
Abbey looks down at the seat and stammers to Joey, "I th-th-think I w-w-wet myself."
"Thas OK," Joey stammers. "I do dat all da time myself. We've jus gotta keep up the pace."
They spy a van pulled over to the side of the road, and a bearded man is lecturing the riders.
"Let's see what is going on here, sweets. This guy looks like he may know something." Joey barks.
They pull over to the shoulder, and sneak up to the back of the gathered crowd. Abbey pokes one of the audience members. "Huh-huh-hoose th-th-that guy talking?"
"That's the mysterious 'Ahhoho'. He is giving directions out for the Road," the man says. "Now be quiet please, this is getting interesting."
Abbey and Joey listen to the speech by 'Ahhoho'.
"I implore you. Do not get back on that road without understanding what I am saying. The inflation winds will wreck the High P/E vehicles. Take a look at this chart."
'Ahhoho' puts a chart up on an easel. Road Chart
"Now what is the Long Term trend of those 'inflation' lines?" He asks.
One of the audience pipes in. "UP!"
"That's correct," the speaker replies. "Now look at the tail end of the chart. You can see that for a long period- the trend corrected downward. That downward trend has ended if you look at the right side of the chart. The 'inflation' winds are poised to begin rising again."
Ahhoho starts in with a story." There was a man who had an apple tree in his yard. He did not care for the tree properly, and it grew many limbs. He didn't take notice, but in the spring, the apple tree sprouted tremendously dense blossoms. Each blossom sprouted an apple, and as the spring turned in to summer, the apples began to grow. Since there were so many, the apples were quite small. There were limbs growing in all directions though, and the tree limbs were burdened with apples. When the man checked his tree late in the summer, he was quite upset. Many of the overburdened limbs had broken. The apples that were ripe were too small to be of any use. The tree was a dismal failure."
The crowd oohs and ahhhs at the profound wisdom of the orator.
Joey looks over at Abbey and opens his mouth, "So whut! He kin fix the tree for next year, can't he?"
Ahhoho frowns and snaps back, "You fool- The tree was the man's main source of food for the coming winter, if he had treated it with more respect, he would not be begging for food come January."
Joey looks around and shrugs his shoulders. He whispers to Abbey, "Let's get out of here, this guy's a loon."
Joey turns his bottle of High P/E whiskey up, takes a big gulp, and stumbles back to the car.
TW and MK, in the meantime have jumped back in a Gold Truck again, and are chatting about the plans.
"Are we getting close to Recessionville, man?" MK asks.
"I don't know MK, but the inflation winds are getting stronger. This truck is THE place to be right now." TW answers. They just start to relax when the radio announcer breaks into the program: "We have just been told that 'Greenspam Wrecker Service' has issued a second and final warning to drivers headed north on Bull market highway. Inflation winds are creating dangerous driving conditions, and unless you're in a 'hard asset' vehicle, you will likely be in great peril. This is your final warning. The next announcement will be of a road closure if conditions continue to deteriorate."
MK looks over at TW and gives a thumbs up. They settle back for the ride. Will Greenspam Wrecker Service close down the road? Will Abby and Joey sober up and pull over? Does anyone care? Stay tuned to a financial news outlet near you for clues. To be continued..... On to chapter 9: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ©1999 M.T. Whitman
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