William Charles Simpson
Behavioral

The Comparative Behavioral
Forecasting Time Relationship











B     ---->        B   ---->    B
  t        (comp)   f       (y)  o
   c                 c            d


(d > c)

Behavioral Tend or Behavior Trend Point, B sub t, occurring during interval of time c, compared to Final Behavior, B sub f, occurring during same interval of time c, yields the behavioral outcome, B sub o, for later interival of time d.

The Comparative Behavioral Relationship is use to compare one behavioral "state" to another behavioral "state" to attain a forcast of a behavioral outcome.

The behavioral "state" being compared to is called a "trend point".

In the practice of this conjucturer, the behavioral "state" being compared is usually the final behavior for the interval of time.

The following are the examples of how the the comparative behavioral relationship is used:

Example 1:
If investors in any investment market made the investment grow by +2 points net change for the week, the investors are saying they want the investment to grow by another +2 points net change. If unabated by any investment "disaster", the growth and the behavioral outcome will happen. The behavioral trend point here is 0 (zero) net change. The final behavior for the interval of time was the +2 points net change.

Example 2:
If the US economy had a 5.6% growth GDP during the last quarter of 1999, (4Q99), the US economy is saying it wants to have a growth of 5.6% occurring by some later quarter. The behavioral trend point the quarter is 0% growth. The final behavior for the quarter was the 5.6% growth.

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