The conjectures to date:
It is not the economic or business forcast lag that is estimated.
It is the growth of a certain type of growth factor that is estimated.
The certain type of growth factor could be called a Forecasting Growth Factor.
The forecasting growth factor is used to generate the forecast.
The forecasting growth factor is added on or multiplied to the time series element or economic event or business event to generate the forecast.
A process which estimates how long it will take a forecast to happen, is actually estimating how long it would take a forecasting growth factor to grow.
The use of growth factors to estimate forecast lag is called a "Growth Factor Method of Estimating Forecast Lag".
There are several methods.
The one used here is called the "Greastest Average Method".
The average of growth factors is taken for a series of growth factors, economic events, business events, ect.
This average growth factor is then divided into the Greatest Positive Growth Factor of the growth factor series.
The result is a forecast lag estimate.
William Charles Simpson
First Write: Tue, Nov 16, 1999.
Napa, CA USA
2nd Write: Tue, Jan 27, '04
Santa Cruz CA USA
WCS HOME
Time and Forecast
TOP
© 1999
wcsimp@rocketmail.com
