William Charles Simpson
Forecast & Time

Lag Shift Ratios


Lag Shift Ratios answer the question what will happen after a lag shift. A lag shift can be detected from a lag estimator or lag measurement.

To make this easier, the example will be based on a Old Lag = 3, (meaning it take 3 intervals of time for a forecast to happen) and the New Lag = 4, (meaning it take 4 intervals of time for a forecast to happen).

To make the example even easier, the Old Lag was happening all last year and the New Lag started Jan. 1st of this year.

How much will we make with the New Lag this year compared with the Old Lag last year?

Old Lag / New Lag

The ratio is 3 divided by 4 (3/4) or 75%. We will be making accross the board 75% of the money we did last year.

How much longer will it take us to make the same amount we did with the Old Lag?

New Lag / Old Lag

The ratio is 4 divided by 3 (4/3) or 133%. It will take 33% or 1/3 longer across the board to make the same amount we did last year.

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