The military leadership of Ethiopia has done its brave, aggressive and impressive job. Regarding the issue of Asseb, there is a huge weakness in the political leadership. One thing that irritates pro-Asseb Ethiopians is that the political leadership has a "MINIMUM DUTY", to put up a vicious and aggressive political fight and argue that Asseb should be part of Ethiopia. This requirement can be done without a single bullet being fired ! Even "IFF" the political leadership conceded Asseb belonged to Eritrea in 1991/1993, it has a responsibility to build the strongest case it can master and politically fight for Ethiopia's right to own an outlet to the sea. Needless to say, it should support and pave way for those who are willing to put up a political fight. Ethiopia can CLAIM Asseb and build a legal case based upon,

1) Abused agreements and theft on the part of Eritrea (using it as a broken condition for permitting Asseb to be in Eritrea).
2) Favorable historical facts.
3) The very evil design of colonial maps denying Ethiopia outlet to the sea.
4) International understanding on the need for countries to have their own ports.

Let there be enough political fight to take the case to the Hague International Court of Justice. Let groups other than Ethiopia and Eritrea be the judge. But NEVER should a true leadership representing the sole interest of Ethiopia be its own judge. Even Eritrea has claimed Zalembessa, Badme, ..., e.t.c. using FORCE. International players did nothing other than maybe wanting to stop the fight at anybody's cost. There is nothing to be lost by putting up a political fight other than the massive effort on the part of the government and people in the Diaspora. Ethiopia can even threaten to use force if it doesn't get a legitimate hearing (following the threat is a different subject). Compared to Ethiopian compatriots who paid with their lives, this is the least we can do. We owe it to them, to our forgotten POW's in Eritrea and most of all we owe it to our children. Unlike a military fight, a political fight can go hand in hand with attempts of current economic development.

Unless our leadership is eager to protect the interest of Eritrea, it is incomprehensible to allow demarcation without a legal and legitimate political fight for the port of Asseb. Especially when one is leveraged by a military success. There is a poll at www.ethiopians.com that may give a hint on the percentage of people the political leadership is going against or will lose support of, if it goes against the will of the majority. And on the Asseb issue, the political leadership can not assume superior knowledge or intelligence over the majority. Can somebody from Walta answer why the political leadership is not putting up this fight ? And please don't be the Judge.

"International Law", "international principle", for the "sake of peace" all contain a sad dose of fallacy for forfeiting any contention for Asseb. International Law is neither the Bible nor the Koran, nations use it when it matches their interest and abuse it (subtly, directly or indirectly) when it goes against them. It looks like our leadership is the only one that cares about international principle, certainly the enemy does not and it didn't cost it international penalty.

What is the concrete evidence that suggests the international community wants Eritrea to own all the coast line ? Specially in the eyes of Israel and U.S. when Eritrea is attempting to join the Arab League. Does the international community simple want to stop the fighting or does it want an unruly nation to control large portion of the Red Sea coast. There is a reason why the international community at large kept silent to the latest offensive and did not take sides. Chances are, it is to the advantage of the international community to split the coast line further.

Letting go of Eritrea for the sake of peace was one of the current leadership's beliefs. Eritrea's independence did not bring peace but a greater enemy. The current thinking of bringing peace by letting go of Asseb has a similar folly. In fact one can legitimately argue land locking 60 million people is a volcano waiting to erupt at any future time. Any one of future successors may believe in owning a port, or may be cornered into militarily fighting for one. What brings peace in the horn is a balance of power. Ethiopia must maintain military superiority at all time if it wants peace with Eritrea. At any given time if Eritrea is significantly more powerful than Ethiopia then there is a good chance peace will be an illusion. Even if borders have been demarcated and final "peace" agreement has been signed years ago. The point is, what brings peace to Ethiopia is the deterrent factor of it's military power, the unity of it's people, the support of the people to the government and the listening of the government to the citizens heart beat. It is not whether we own or forfeit Asseb. Note that it is also easier for Ethiopia to defend Asseb than for Eritrea to defend it.

Ownership of Asseb, a vision NOT an obsession !

There is a huge difference between "access" and "ownership". And that is "control". The primary function of governments is to keep their citizens interest. It is not to keep their neighbors interest. At present Djibouti and Ethiopia have a symbiotic relationship. A scenario can easily come up in the future where their interests can diverge. If such a case comes up, and they start playing tit for tat to an eventual test of will, what is the contingency plan for Ethiopia ? The love affair between Shabia and TPLF fell out seven years after its climax. At that time why did our leadership FAIL to account for a fall out in relationship and design a contingency plan. It is mere luck that moved shipments to Djibouti. Our political leadership has proved it is strongly deficient of VISION. In this issue, we have no confidence in it. Can somebody from Walta answer me what will happen if there is a fall out of relation ship between Djibouti and Ethiopia ? I mean today not seven years from now ? Move to Berbera, Port Sudan, Mombasa or back to Asseb under Eritrea ? In fact, I sincerely wish Djibouti and Ethiopia FALL OUT today so that the leadership understands what kind of fire it is playing with (may be the second time it will get it !). Or is the answer going to be that will never happen because Djibouti is heavily dependent on Ethiopia (i.e. bury our heads in the sand, AGAIN !).

It is not hard to think of a scenario that could lead to a fall out. Recently the Ethiopian government passed a "protectionist" policy to prop up business for Ethiopian Shipping Lines. This may be good for Ethiopia (?). ASSUME there exists a competitor called Djibouti Shipping Lines that thrives on Ethiopia's business. Maybe the Djibouti government too should pass a policy harming Ethiopian Shipping Lines and favoring Djibouti Shipping Lines.

Djibouti is in the Arab League, Somalia is in the Arab league (not sure about Somaliland), and Eritrea is trying to get in. Can somebody from Walta explain what will happen if 10 years from now they all collude under the auspices of the Arab League and set out a flat pay scheme for their port fees ? Obviously hundred times more than what it is now. They will all profit on the back of Ethiopia. Why not throw the issue of the Nile here and assume the Arab League is catering to the demands of Egypt. If this thinking ever materializes, is Ethiopia going to fall under the control of her neighbors (or the Arab League) or is she going to spend hundreds of thousands more lives to capture a port ? Maybe the current leadership will shout this evil deed is against "international law" to a deaf ear. Tell that to OPEC. The probability of the above happening may be small but is definitely not zero.

Djibouti's port is under new management. It is being upgraded. Using the cost of upgrade as a motive, or desire for a higher profit margin as a drive (understandable from a business perspective), what will happen if Djibouti decides to raise port fees some fifty percent per year ? Is that simply going to be the cost for Ethiopia ? Djibouti has no responsibility for Ethiopia.

Any thinking leading to Djibouti's dependence on Ethiopia has to be examined critically. If both countries are to hold out, a population of 600,000 will suffer much less than a population of 60 million. Further, the Arab league can finance Djibouti's budget with a pocket change if it wants too.

Eritrea has long been gone, we don't have a problem accepting that. We wish them luck and move on. Eritrea is also an enemy that won't flinch to sell us out. We also accept that. How can we think of paying port dues to Eritrea, strengthen our enemy and burden ourselves (even if "peace" comes in and we end up using Asseb under Eritrea) ? Would India ever let Pakistan do that ? It is not just the Eritrean Leadership that is an enemy of Ethiopia, it is a significant portion of the population.

The above was mainly dealing with political risk. Can we even calculate the economic burden put upon Ethiopia for using foreign countries port ? Isn't this a massive chain ball on the feet of a poor nation like Ethiopia ? If port fees have to be paid in foreign exchange wouldn't this be a source of eternal drain ? Even if it is paid in Birr, is the cross-country trade evenly balanced out to prevent an effect of depreciating Birr against the dollar ? Let us think of today's rising cost of petroleum products. Most of it is attributable to the rising crude oil price in the international market. Had Asseb still been part of Ethiopia and the oil refinery was maintained and functional, would price of ALL petroleum products gone up as much as they did ?

The point of the matter is, politically, any seen or unforeseen event can happen to put vulnerable Ethiopia utterly at the mercy of her neighbors. What is Ethiopia ought to do when that time comes ? Economically, why should Ethiopia carry an eternal burden ?

Irrespective of what the Ethiopian leadership has achieved so far and what it will achieve in the future, the fact that it allowed Ethiopia to be landlocked will NEVER be forgiven. It is an incomprehensible act ! It is the political leadership that created Asseb's mess and it is the political leadership that should AT LEAST put an effort to clean it up. In the long run, its survival may depend upon it. Most people would rather forgive the first mistake of combining Asseb with Eritrea than to painfully witness a second mistake.

A note to the editors at Walta, let us not attack or label individuals for their contributions. I am sure we can all learn from each other. Ideas are open for contention, the more they differ the wider we can see. Hadn't we all cared for Ethiopia and loved Ethiopia we wouldn't be wasting our time.