"Operation Sunset has administered some severe medicine to the diseased Eritrean militaristic nationalism. The patient is already responding to the treatment, as we see from today's activity at the UN."

Dear Netters:

First I would like to congratulate the Ethiopian army on its superb achievements. As most readers are aware, I have been suggesting that Ethiopia needs to mobilize far more troops in order to conduct a successful offensive. Well, I was wrong. The Ethiopian forces, after keeping the Eritreans off-balance with a series of artillery and air bombardments, have blasted through the Eritrean defense lines within a day of launching their attack. The vaunted Mereb-Setit defense line collapsed much faster than many anticipated. Ethiopian courage and determination more than made up for the deficiency in attacking troop strength. (Attacking troops need a large numerical superiority to guarantee success. On the Ethiopia-Eritrea front however, the numbers are roughly equal. According to the AFP Eritrea has 270,000 troops while Ethiopia has 320,000).

The collapse of the Mereb-Setit front has created a crisis of confidence for Eritrea, and the Eritrean propaganda machine is now trying to say that the Ethiopian forces suffered huge losses, that the balance of power is really unchanged, that the Eritrean setback is only temporary, and that Ethiopian forces are going to be wiped out soon in a counterattack.

This seems like wishful thinking. The Eritreans have now confirmed that they have retreated. It is when armies retreat that they suffer the most, particularly if they have insufficient air cover. The initial Ethiopian attack took 11/2 days till Wednesday. The rest of the battle (21/2 days till the end of Friday) consisted of desperate Eritrean counterattacks, and Ethiopian pursuits of fleeing Eritrean units. This situation resulted in massive Eritrean losses, particularly on Friday. The panicked Eritrean request for an emergency UN meeting demonstrates that the Eritrean forces are currently in a pitiful state of disarray.

Anyway, in the absence of hard news, here is what I think happened. (This is simply my speculation, as I have no inside information from Ethiopia).

Eritrea - Living Dangerously: Part II
As I indicated in "Eritrea - Living Dangerously: Part I" despite the exaggerated boasts about knocking out 20 to 30 tanks, the Eritreans were barely hanging on for Tuesday and part of Wednesday. But it appears that probably sometime Wednesday, Ethiopian forces shattered the Eritrean defense lines southwest of Badime and broke through in a decisive manner.

At this point the Eritreans were faced with two choices: counterattack and close the gap immediately, or abandon most of the Mereb-Setit line and withdraw all their forces to a new defense line, maybe even behind the Mereb river.

Apparently, they counterattacked desperately, and a very confused situation developed with Eritrean units mixed up among Ethiopian units. Both army headquarters probably did not have a good handle on the situation, as the "fog of war" enveloped the battlefield.

By late Thursday however, it was clear that the Ethiopian breakthrough was too powerful to stop and the Eritrean counterattacks had been routed. Eritrean units began fleeing in chaos, and panic started setting in at the Eritrean command headquartes. This is when the Eritreans tried the last ditch effort of calling in their Mig-29s. This effort collapsed when two of their Mig-29s was intercepted and shot down in a dogfight.

The fact that the Eritrean Air Force has entered the battle is significant. It indicates that Ethiopian Air Force Migs, Antonovs and helicopters are inflicting severe punishment on the Eritrean forces. Particularly on their supply lines, armored units, and rear bases.

Once the Ethiopian attack smashed through the Eritrean lines, the surviving Eritrean tanks and self-propelled guns had to start up their engines and get moving. If they stayed within their protective earthern berms they would be sitting ducks for the advancing Ethiopian armored units. But once they started moving out into the plain, they became more visible from the air, and good targets for the Ethiopian Air Force.

It is apparently for this reason that Eritrea called in its Mig-29s. But they were doomed from the start. The SU-27 is a superior fighter and Ethiopian pilots are far more skilled than their Eritrean counterparts. This is why the Eritrean Air Force had been absent until now.

Now the question is whether the Eritreans can still set up a cohesive secondary defense line to contain the Ethiopian blitzkrieg. This is going to require a coordinated, orderly withdrawal - a difficult task in the face of airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and pursuing detachments of Ethiopian armor.

By now the Eritrean and Ethiopian units involved in the fighting must be exhausted. The availability and rapid deployment of fresh reinforcements will be critical for Ethiopia to sustain its offensive, and for Eritrea to stabilize the situation.

Regardless of the outcome, however, it is clear that Operation Sunset has administered some severe medicine to the diseased Eritrean militaristic nationalism. The patient is already responding to the treatment, as we see from today's activity at the UN.

-Dagmawi