This entire affair was an Eritrean ego trip from the beginning. The Eritrean side always talks darkly about an armed clash in Badime on May 6, 1998 when several high-ranking Eritrean military officers were killed. Badime was at the time under peaceful Ethiopian civilian administration, and there was a stipulation that Eritreans could cross the border and enter Badime only so long as they left their weapons behind. The precise details of what happened on May 6 are still unclear, but Eritrea has so far provided no explanation for why it sent armed men into Badime that day. This provocation is what caused the initial armed clash. Eritrea got the worst of this initial clash, and its bruised ego is what led to the large-scale invasion six days later.

The Eritrean invasion on May 12, 1998 seems like it was mainly designed to get revenge. It was basically an ego trip, although serious issues of border demarcation and economic relations were also major factors.

What Eritrea expected from Ethiopia in May 1998 was appeasement. The Eritrean dictator's experience with Ethiopia from 1991-1998 had conditioned him to believe that the Ethiopian government would always back down from confrontation with Eritrea. This time he was wrong, and he has ended up with a full-scale war on his hands.

But then why do I say the war could be over soon?

Simply because this is a highly opportune moment for the Eritrean government to sign the OAU Peace Plan. The intense, one-sided media coverage from Eritrea, combined with the hopelessly weak Ethiopian public relations has produced a portrait of Eritrean victory. The image presented to the outside world is highly favorable to Eritrea.

However, it won't be like this forever. The recent fighting has been blown far out of proportion. It doesn't even equal the scale of fighting on June 9-11, 1998 when Eritrea suffered thousands of casualties and over 100 Eritrean POWs were captured.

This is the high point for Eritrea. Now is the time to declare victory, sign the peace plan, and go home. Should Eritrea do this it would be widely praised by the world community.

As I have explained before, Eritrea's demand to remove a fundamental plank of the OAU peace plan is incompatible with international law. It is not going to happen. Therefore, the sensible thing to do is to sign the peace plan right now and declare victory.

If Eritrea continues stalling, events could turn for the worse. Eritrean casualties will multiply, the economy will deteriorate, and the inevitable military reverses will start to sap morale.

However, most Eritreans are conviced that a swift Eritrean attack will destroy the Ethiopian army in a few days and guarantee a peace deal dictated by Eritrea. This is what Issayas Afeworqi seems to be alluding to when he says the war could be over in a few days.

In conclusion therefore, it seems that Eritrea currently has an excellent opportunity to end this conflict on a high note. Unfortunately, Eritrea will likely miss this opportunity. Instead, Eritrea will probably continue its stubborn and obstinate refusal to sign the internationally endorsed OAU peace plan. With the support of his intellectual parrots, and with the feverish war-hysteria that has developed among the Eritrean population inside and outside the country, the Eritrean dictator seems set to continue on his course of confrontation indefinitely.

-Dagmawi