Analysis: Ethiopia and Eritrea at Doubtful PeaceThe Economist, June 24, 2000THEY signed, and the fighting has stopped -- at least for the moment. After two years of war and perhaps 100,000 dead soldiers, the foreign ministers of Eritrea and Ethiopia, under the eye of Algeria's president, signed an interim peace plan on June 18th. This provides for the international demarcation of their 1,000km (600-mile) border. In the meantime, a UN force will monitor the border, patrolling a 25km-wide buffer zone in Eritrea captured by Ethiopia. The Ethiopians say they will leave this zone only when the UN force arrives, which could take three months or more. Once the UN troops are in place, it may be years before the boundary is agreed on. Both sides say they accept the colonial boundary, but which one? Many lines have been drawn on the map between 1890, when Eritrea was declared an Italian colony, and 1993, when it split from Ethiopia to become an independent state. The more immediate concern for the outside world is the hunger threatening the region's people, including the 85,000 or so Eritreans who have been displaced by the war. Although the earlier fear of a devastating famine appears to be receding, large numbers will not survive the year unless they get outside assistance. The aftermath of the war will be particularly painful for Eritrea, which has now taken on all its neighbours, achieving nothing. Never far off the breadline at the best of times, Eritrea will need substantial food aid. Its fertile area in the south-west has been ravaged by war, and some of it is still under Ethiopian occupation. The planting season begins soon and farmers are unlikely to be able to return home in time. Making matters worse, international donors, sickened by a pointless war, are not in a generous mood. Nor is it clear how Eritrea will manage in the longer term. It depends on taxes and remittances from Eritreans living abroad but, after the disillusion of defeat, these may begin to dry up. Assab, which was once landlocked Ethiopia's main port -- and provided a fifth of Eritrea's revenue -- has been at a standstill since the war began. Ethiopia now uses Djibouti, a port farther down the Red Sea coast. Whatever happens, Eritrea is unlikely to be able to resume its role as entrepot between Ethiopia and the world. It has few resources of its own beyond the intelligence and energy of its people. Its earlier attempts to become a manufacturing and service hub for the region foundered on the rigidity of its bureaucracy. Will a leader defeated in battle hold on to his job? President Issaias Afwerki won the Eritreans' loyalty during the long struggle for independence. Moreover, no opposition is allowed and dissent is barely heard. Much will depend on whether Ethiopia can be magnanimous in victory. It may, but the triumphalist mood in Addis Ababa gives small sign that it will. |