Prelude

Dear Ethiopian,

I read your piece and both of the other articles posted on Dagmawi’s web site-the issue of Assab port by the two Ethiopian scholars (Belay Abbai and Zereu Keishen) and Dagmawi’s analysis of the current situation and the political leadership of TPLF. For now I will limit myself on the Assab issue although I can’t dismiss Dagmawi’s powerful arguments and observation of facts on the ground so easily. On a side note however, it would be very helpful if the critiques of those articles could appreciate the era we now live in, in terms of dealing with differences of opinions. The time where people with different opinions were simply labeled as TSERE HIZIB! YEMEDEB TELAT! TSRE ABIOTEGNA! KELASH! BERAZSHE! AKORKUASZHE! ADHARI! TSERE ANDENET! TSERE MINAMIN! etc etc has passed. That was the era of Communism where no differences of opinions were entertained. The recommended solution in dealing with opposing ideas at that time of collective madness was to insult people in to silence or eliminate the originators of the ideas altogether. That is it! YEMEDEB TIGIL!

In this modern, fast paced and mind boggling century however, a serious writer who writes for a critical and serious readers, expecting to convince probing minds should lend himself to the virtues of reasoning and evidence. The answers you gave us for all the questions raised, be it regarding the issue of Assab or Dagmawi’s observations was one and only one: Conspiracy! Conspiracy! Conspiracy! Conspiracy! Every thing was conspiracy! I hope you will agree with me that a pile of insults will not answer any of the relevant questions raised on those powerful articles. This type of writing is perhaps reminiscent of the work of the Leninist cadres of the ugly 70’s whose tongues were sharper than their minds.

Questions

Having said this let me come to my point of contention on your article. For practical reasons I say here that you haven’t touched the real issue-Assab and the long-term survival of Ethiopia.

Here are my questions to you: According to the prime minister, Ethiopia doesn’t need her own port and we can use Djibouti as our eternal access to the sea. The alternative presented to us on table (if Djibouti creates a problem in the future, say with the coming to power of a hostile government to Ethiopia), is to beg Somalia, Sudan or Kenya for their ports!

A. Do you really believe that this is a long-term solution for the security and survival of our country as a nation? What if Djibouti refuses to let us use her port or put unacceptable terms on our types of imports and exports including our military hardware (at times of war) for any possible reason in the future?

B. What do you think is the reason why Eritrea is cuddled by the US, Israel and others since independence, while Ethiopia is treated unfairly even in the last two years? Is that because Eritrea has more natural resources than Ethiopia? Is it not because Eritrea is a costal country with the unfair advantage of owning two ports and related islands that suit the military and intelligence interests of these countries? Forget the economic significance of having our own port for the time being, how can we correct this unfair treatment of Ethiopia by the big powers in the future, while we loose our strategic importance and appear weak and land locked?

C. Take the security issue- There are countries whose survival depends on Ethiopia-such as Egypt- who want to sea Ethiopia destabilized and weakened in the future. These countries will definitely focus on the military imports of our country through foreign ports. What is the security implication of this to our survival as a landlocked nation?

D. You seem to argue on one and one point only-avoiding future war with Eritrea. Do you think we will not be forced to go to war in the future if we differ our national interest now for unknown future? Please answer these questions in a manner that helps us to understand the issue better.

Some Background

When SHABIA took control of Assab in 1991, they were bewildered by the indifference or carelessness of EPRDF for not securing Ethiopia’s only access to the sea- Assab port. As a new government that took power in Addis, this was the responsibility of EPRDF to look after. Shbaia’s leaders always count on TPLF’s mistakes as far as the national interest is concerned. The first round of cunning has been accomplished successfully: snatching Assab port from Ethiopia and plundering Ethiopian wealth by using our currency for 8 years, siphoning off military resources like expensive Helicopter Gun-Ships, weakening the Ethiopian military etc etc. Now it is the second round of cunning. This time they may be approaching a bit differently. The theme perhaps will be:

" ---stay cool and low profile until recovering well from the disastrous defeat largely using food and financial aid donated by foreign countries for hungry Eritrians; amass food and fiancial aid as much as possible from every donor country in the world under the cover of Eritrian refugees; fasten the border demarcation processes so that Assab is snatched from Ethiopia once and for all; tell TPLF that we are after all natural allies and isolate them more from the rest of Ethiopia by making secret talks that offend the Ethiopian people; then wait for the appropriate time and avenge the humiliating defeat in later years, etc etc. --- "

Indications are that this is the tune of the day in EPLF’s world and they are sure that they can cheat TPLF again. Dagmawi’s observation just reminds us of this slippery ground and it may not be far fetched. Don’t forget that SHABIA was willing to forgo Assab much earlier (in the early 80’s when Derg was strong in its military power) in exchange for the independence of Eritrea. EPRDF made a grave mistake in 1991 by ignoring the warnings of the Ethiopian people, trusting Shabia and compromising with Ethiopia’s vital long-term interest. There was a good chance of negotiating on our port, Assab by delaying the so-called Eritrian referendum. On the contrary EPRDF rushed in to the referendum mess and went beyond, even to the extent of begging foreign countries to recognize Eritrea. What did it secured for Ethiopia in return? Nothing! Absolutely nothing! In fact five years later SHABIA paid this credit by waging war on unprepared and naïve Ethiopia.

The people of Ethiopia were then called at the eleventh hour to clear-up the mess after being left out from the decision making process in the first place. By realizing the bad intentions of Shabia to our country, the Ethiopian people heed for this call and joined hands with EPRDF smashing the aggressor to the point where Eritrea is nearly destroyed now.

The issue of Assab port is more than any local political interest. It is a matter of survival of a nation no matter who governs the country. Just cool down and look around East Africa for a moment. Sudan has a port, Somalia has a port, Kenya has a port, Djibouti has a port and Eritrea has a port. It is only your/our Ethiopia that is snatched of its only natural-get to the sea. All are secured with their imports and exports. We are not. Mind you we are not asking other people’s property; we are demanding the return of our own territory on the Red Sea. For any sober mind the two writers you admonished as "people who ran for power" didn’t raise any political interest of their own other than stating the vital interest of Ethiopia in a precise and straight forward article. No matter who writes what, only what is written matters.

Try to examine the problem from the point of national interest and it will not take long to realize EPRDF’s policy on Assab-our life line- does not offer a long-term solution. It is a shortsighted one that can't sea the light of the next day. The mistake committed by EPRDF in the past (as far as Shabia was concerned) was a direct result of not listening to the Ethiopian people, and the leadership is now bent to repeat the same mistake again.

Your main concern is just avoiding war at any cost now, whatever the national interest is. We may avoid war right now, but we can’t stop it from exploding in the future as far as there remains deep resentment among all Ethiopian people. But the price may be high later as the enemy gets more time to recover from its near collapse state now.

We have seen that Mr. Meles have frustrated many marvelous opportunities by making policy on the whim. However the opportunity is not still dead to recover our lost ownership on the portion of the Read Sea. As a start at least Ethiopia could make a formal legal representation on international level claiming its own port Assab. There is a very strong and compelling evidence to make a powerful legal representation at international level. Ethiopia can use her own legal experts, prominent political scientists and hire distinguished foreign lawyers to work together and present her case on international tribunals.

The lobbying effort can also go in full swing by all Ethiopians around the globe (let us not forget that there are more Ethiopian Americans, Ethiopian Canadians Ethiopian Jews, etc etc, than that of our adversaries). The bench mark is that, Ethiopia was the last colonial power in Eritrea (by the definition of Shabia itself) and Italy’s map of Eritrea is nullified by its invasion of Ethiopia in 1936 and by the precedence that followed after 1945, where Fascist Italy found herself in the vanquished party (please read a recent article by Professor Niguse Ayele, a prominent political scientist). As far as the referendum is concerned the Ethiopian government can argue that although there was a referendum held as a matter of urgency in 1993, there was no formal border demarcation processes carried out.

After making a formal legal representation, the ground will be there for the Ethiopian people (who are more than willing to die for their rightful ownership on the portion of the Red Sea) to bring back their only natural port-Assab by force that was snatched from them unfairly in 1991.

Let us not also exaggerate what the Eritrian army can do. We have seen what the Eritrian army is all about! Shabia is no match for a united Ethiopia! The whole world now knows what happened to the so-called "Eritrian army". Their false image is shattered beyond any repair and has gone forever never to return. It didn’t take us more than 10 days to take half of Eritrea and Alas! Asmara couldn’t have been spared from the wrath of the Ethiopian army, if it were not for the decision to stop the offensive.

It is also observed that all foreign countries quickly adjust to the military situation on the ground. Ethiopians can thus claim and defend Assab forever very easily if they want to. Don’t forget that Assab port is located in our Afar land which make it very difficult for SHABIA to start and sustain any meaningful gorilla warfare on Assab, given the 100% Ethiopian nationalism of our Afar brothers. No one can also doubt that the Ethiopian people (both in the country and in the Diaspora)! will be behind their army in their full might on the issue of Assab. Because, this is just a matter of survival and every Ethiopian believes in it! You may not like it but this is the truth.

Concluding Remarks

The best possible solution for Ethiopia and Eritrea to live in a long-term peace is for Eritrians to acknowledge Ethiopia’s rightful ownership on the portion of the Red sea through the Assab port. As we don’t make a claim on their port Massawa, they shouldn’t entertain any claim on our port -Assab. That is all. Peace and stability for all people! Justice for all! There will not be any grievances or resentments that will manifest themselves in future hostilities. Love and mutual respect will grow in the place of hatred and suspicion. The Ethiopian government should thus start listening to its own people. The bad experience of ignoring the people in the decision-making processes but calling them later to clear up the mess should come to an end. The people should be listened from the outset and be there in both times: in making the decisions themselves and carrying out them. Any thing less will be just a partial equilibrium that will not protect Ethiopia’s long-term interest.

Mekonnen