Commentary:
So Wrong but still Right?

The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not a border conflict, but a result of an invasion of a sovereign state of Ethiopia by the State of Eritrea. In May of 1998 a heavily mechanized Eritrean army crossed the border and annexed huge parts of Ethiopian territory not in one area, but in four different areas: Badime, Irob, Zalanbesa and Afar areas. Ethiopia waited for nine months begging the Eritrean leadership to leave the land they have occupied by force and come to a negotiating table. At the end, there was no other choice but to go to a war that Ethiopia has tried so hard to avoid. As a result of this defensive war, Badime was liberated from Eritrean occupation in February. While the end can be predicted, what should worry both people is that the two armies know one another so well that the damage will be incalculable in both human and material terms to both countries.

There is no question that the president of Eritrea was prepared to start this war, the question now is if he is prepared to finish it. During the first week of the war, I have confronted an Eritrean friend who warned me that Ethiopia's end was here and that I should be prepared to accept tiny chiefdoms out of what he called “the Ethiopian Empire”. He told me that the Amharas, the Oromos and the Tigryans would turns guns on each other. He told me that all Wedi Afewerki has to do was to place his army at the border and simply stare at Ethiopia. I responded by saying that I was worried about that prospect, but if Ethiopian people can hold Eritrean army for six more months, there is only one way that this war will end, and that is in an Ethiopian victory. I reminded him that the people of Tigray have always been able to keep the enemy at bay until their brothers arrived at the seen to destroy the enemy in union.

It is now one year, and as we can see, the longer the war takes, the deeper Eritrea will sink. The one thing that should worry the Ethiopian government though is the overconfidence of the population and those in Diaspora lagging behind in their financial support thinking someone else is doing it. In my previous comment “Ethiopian and Eritrean bitter divorce”, I have warned that this war can go the other way if Ethiopian people do not pay enough attention. The possibility of seeing the “age of princes with no end in sight” must be taken seriously. It is also critical that while the strategy of patience is working on one hand, it also means a total extinction of some Ethiopian ethnic groups like the Irob people

Ethiopia has demanded that the Eritrean army must withdraw from the occupied areas before any negotiations can take place. The Eritrean authorities are simply dishonest and playing with diplomatic jargon when they claim that they are told to withdraw only from Badime. If Eritrean authorities would worry less about the exact wording of the OAU peace initiative rather than the content and simply leave that which did not belong to them, we could see a beginning of a real peace negotiation.

The Eritrean public needs to understand one thing. It is Eritrea that crossed the border and attacked Ethiopia. It is Eritrea that is still occupying Ethiopian territory and not the other way round. The benefit of withdrawing now is that the international body will look into the matter in case there was any merit in the territorial claim by Eritrea. Secession of hostilities can only stop when the cause for the hostilities have at least began to be corrected. It is unacceptable to demand a cease-fire while occupying someone’s territory. The only cease-fire that should be granted is to allow the occupying army to withdraw in an organized manner with dignity that is allowed of an aggressor.

Mr. Isayas has defied all rules of logic, but so has the Eritrean public (mainly Hamasen). From day one he has defied the language and action of civility. We have all been following his embarrassing demeanor, insults and choice of words that are clearly unbecoming of a leader of a nation. At times, It is easy to forget if you are listening to a president or “wedi shuk” Street boy. Let us look at what he has accomplished as the president of Eritrea so far:

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• The day his fighters moved in Asmara he ordered all Ethiopians and anyone married to Ethiopians to leave Eritrea. 120,000 people where thrown into trucks and some were forced to walk for days to reach Ethiopia. He did not want any children born of Ethiopian fathers even if these men have been long dead. He wanted a “pure Eritrea”. The Eritrean public, knowing that there were even more Eritreans in Ethiopia, did not think twice about the consequence of this decision. They simply assisted this inhuman atrocity with vengeance and anger. 

• Mr. Isayas was not any kinder to his own people either. In one of his first public appearance in Asmara, he told the Eritrean people that the ELF fighters were forgiven for all their sins. Eritrean public knowing that the ELF fighters were the first to fight for Eritrean independence, and where their brothers and sisters, simply listened and poured their love for Wedi Afewerki. 

• The fact that Mr. Isayas is not a religious person is not shocking even to the die- hard Shabia members. When he found out that there were groups who did not consider him the supreme ruler not to be questioned right inside Eritrea, he was not very forgiving. The Jehovah Witnesses who do not accept the worldly government rule could not be true Eritreans, and he ordered their citizenship be revoked. He knows no “true Eritrean” would ever defy his order. The Eritrean public again failed to stand on the side of fairness, righteousness and ethical. The Eritrean public, instead of protecting their brothers and sisters, ransacked the shops that belonged to the Jehovah Witnesses and stood with their beloved ruler. 

• At the end of the Hanish war, eleven young Eritreans were sacrificed for nothing. Mr. Isayas never explained his motives for the war to the Eritrean people. The public again carried their usual music of “Wedi Afrewerki was right”, and that Eritrea showed the world how strong it is. At the end of the war and negotiation, Eritrea lost almost all the land that it occupied by force. Wedi Afewerki jumped on a plane and started friendship talks with the Yemeni officials. It seems that Mr. Isayas give new meaning to the theory that “There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics”. 

• When Eritrea attacked Djibouti, a country of half a million and almost no offensive military, no one explained what really went wrong, but luckily no body bags came home. The fact that Eritrea did not go very far at this adventure was because there was a big sister guarding Djibouti. 

• Mr. Isayas officially announced that he was out to overthrow the Sudanese government, a country more than any other, has assisted the Eritrean cause during the struggle. Sudan is a country that has always been a refuge for both Eritreans and Ethiopians during the most difficult period of our history. As usual, Mr. Isayas did not explain his actions to his people. He simply handed over the Sudanese embassy to the opposition group braking all international norms and manners by which countries of the world are governed. Consistent to his character, now he has decided to throw the Sudanese opposition group out of the Embassy and give it back to the government of Sudan. Once again he did not explain his bizarre behavior to his people. The Eritrean public once again is telling us that Wedi Afewerki is right. 

• In 1998 Mr. Isayas decided that it was Ethiopia’s turn to fall victim to his tantrum. First he invaded Badime. He then decided to go ahead and attack Zalanbesa. He invaded Irob region ordering the massacre or arrest of all young Irobs, and an open order to destroy schools, clinics and even Churches.

When the war ends, there is a historical precedent that will be followed, loser pays all. There is nothing new with this line of thinking, especially when the looser has been so clearly guilty of all the atrocities and disregard to the international rule and norms that govern nations of the world. Therefore, the Eritrean public needs to pay attention to the following points:

1. If and when the Ethiopian people are able to push the aggressor out of the remaining Ethiopian territories, there will not be any need for negotiation concerning territories. Negotiations that will be conducted under this situation will have a very different dimension: It will include the offensive military that Eritrea may maintain, and the time frame Eritrea will be given to pay for all the human and material damages.

2. Eritrea could go through another “Wegie Hadhid” (civil war) questions of who was responsible for the death of thousands of Eritrean youth The Kebesas dominance will be questioned. This could rekindle a religious and ethnic conflict into the Eritrean political scene.

Many Eritreans, especially those outside of Eritrea know what president Isayas is doing is wrong, but have decided to stick with to the end. The question is when is the end? Will they ask him why he took them to war against the only country that was in good terms with them? Why did he take them to war with their brothers and sisters, and jeopardized the friendship and family connections?

The character of the man called “Wedi Afwewerki” therefore is central to this war, and any long- term solution must address this character. Ultimately though, Eritreans must ask if they are better off with Isayas or without him. They must ask what is it that he has done for them lately. I am hoping that invading other countries is not on the top wish list for the common Eritreans. What then has he done for Eritrea? Has he attempted to fulfill the basic needs of the common Eritreans? How many new Schools and Clinics has he built in Eritrean countryside? Has he attempted to build the bases of political tolerance and democratic culture? More importantly, was this war necessary? Is the price right? How much is too much? Wake up Eritrea! How long will Wedi Aferwerki be so wrong about so many things and you still take him as right?

- Sotal