Dear Netters;

Lately, the frightened regime in Asmara has been telling anyone who will listen, "Help! The Ethiopians are coming to get us! Stop them!"

These frantic cries for assistance are amusing. Several years ago, the Eritrean dictator was openly declaring that he was going to overthrow the government of Sudan. He had even sent Eritrean soldiers into Sudan as reported by AFP correspondent Ruth Simon. [Mrs. Simon was rewarded with over 2 years in prison (without charge) as a result of her report]

Of course, it isn't considered good form to barge into a neigbouring country and knock off the government, but there are plenty of recent precedents. According to reports in Africa Confidential and other sources, Eritrea itself participated in the overthrow of Zaire's Mobutu regime (sending both troops and weapons).

Also, in the past decades, the United States has openly removed the governments of Panama and Greneda, and covertly undermined several others with the intent to overthrow them.

However, the most relevant comparison for the current Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict, is the conflict between Tanzania and Uganda in 1979. Uganda, led by the notorious dictator Idi Amin, invaded the disputed Kagera border district in Tanzania, claiming that it belonged to Uganda.

Tanzania responded by driving Ugandan troops out of the occupied border district, and continuing all the way to Kampala (in concert with Ugandan exiles) to remove the Idi Amin regime. At this point, Idi Amin's good friend, Col. Moammar Gadhafi showed up with thousands of Libyan troops airlifted into Uganda. The Libyan troops were defeated and over 2,000 of them were captured. Idi Amin fled into exile in Saudi Arabia. The situation seems eerily reminiscent of Ethiopia -Eritrea 1999.

But regardless of the historical precedents, I believe it would be a very bad mistake for Ethiopia to go further than driving the Eritrean troops out of all the border areas.

The Eritrean elites followed Isayas into Badime, eyes closed, hands clapping, and singing songs of praise to their dictator. Now they have followed him out of Badime in the same manner. But eventually they may tire of their de-facto "President for Life" and dispose of him on their own terms and in their own way. It is up to them.

Ethiopia can certainly contain any residual Eritrean militarism. Never again will the northern border be left undefended.

The Eritrean dictator lost his nerve at Badime, and if he truly believed that "might is right" then he was very wrong on February 27, 1999. But as his army regrouped, his nerve returned, and yesterday Eritrea was proclaiming that it will not withdraw from Zalanbessa, Alitiena, or any of the other occupied Ethiopian territories. But then today the Eritrean foreign minister issued a statement saying Eritrea is ready to "redeploy" out of these territories, but only as part of a separate section of the OAU plan. They categorize this "redeployment" as a different issue from that of Badime. In other words, they still refuse to acknowledge the Ethiopian requirement for return of the civilian administration.

To make it simple, Eritrea should simply state that it will unconditionally withdraw its army from all areas invaded in May and June of 1998. But of course, they are not sincere, and will not make a simple statement like this.

Furthermore Eritrea has been quiet on a couple of other issues which it previously declared were "crucial" and a pre-requisite for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Below is an excerpt from an Eritrean statement where they try to force Ethiopia (and the OAU) to accept unilateral maps as the sole basis for border delimitation. (This is what Eritrea calls the "colonial border" even though it doesn't match the bilateral treaties.)

Eritrean Foreign Ministry Press Release on the OAU Meeting at Ouagadougou, Nov 9, 1998
"Moreover, it has shown no intention of accepting and respecting Eritrea's colonial boundaries. A lasting peaceful solution, however, requires that Ethiopia rescind its illegal claims on Eritrea and declare, without equivocation, that it respects the colonial boundaries between the two countries.

This unequivocal formulation, …must be reflected clearly in the principles that underpin a peaceful resolution of the conflict. I urge Your Excellencies to ensure that this crucial element is given the weight that it deserves, as without it there cannot be a peaceful solution. "

Has Eritrea abandoned these "FUNDAMENTAL" issues? I doubt it. Isayas is simply thinking about short-term survival right now; he is guaranteed to renege on any statements he makes now.

The Eritrean regime is terrified that the collapse of their Mereb-Setit front will be replayed soon with a similar collapse along the Tsorona-Zalanbessa-Alitiena front. They are afraid of the Ethiopian defense forces. They want help. They want Egypt, Libya, the Arab League, the OAU, the UN… ANYBODY to step in and save them from disaster. This is the only reason for the recent flurry of emotional, pleading, statements from the Eritrean foreign ministry.

But the type of help they want is not forthcoming. Eritrea has been scoffing at and ridiculing these organizations and countries for the past nine months. Nobody is coming to rescue the Eritrean regime. The only way it can save itself is by taking urgent, concrete measures to prove to Ethiopia that it is serious about peace.

The behavior of the Eritrean regime in its dealings with the diplomatic corps, is far out of sync with the way its propaganda machine has been reporting the recent events along the border. According to the Eritrean propaganda, they have killed the equivalent of 2 full divisions and wounded the equivalent of 4 more divisions. They themselves reported that the Ethiopian offensive at the Mereb-Setit front consisted of 6 divisions. Thus, in the course of being defeated, they claim to have killed or wounded every single Ethiopian soldier along that front. Quite an accomplishment even in the realm of fantasy.

But it is Eritrea that has likely suffered the worst casualties. Eritrea was launching wave after wave of counterattacks against the Ethiopian forces from Wednesday through Friday Feb 27. It is Eritrea that was forced to retreat under fire, in daylight, and without air cover.

With their wild claims, the Eritrean propaganda machine has been able to fool many Eritreans, and assure continued support for their regime. However, they can't keep fooling their people forever. Eritrea will be a different place when the reality of Isayas' disastrous 9-month adventure in Ethiopia sets in.

- Dagmawi