ERITREA* (5 February)

A satisfactory 1998 main season cereal crop is estimated, as a result of abundant and well distributed rains during the growing season. However, due to dry weather in November and December in the coastal areas, where the sorghum crop is about to be harvested, the outlook is uncertain.

While the overall food supply situation has improved with the arrival of the new harvest on the market, the situation continues to be difficult for the families displaced by the conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia. A recent Government assessment indicates that during 1999, some 450 000 people will need food assistance, including 100 000 internally displaced persons and 60 000 expelled from Ethiopia, hosting families of returnees/displaced as well as those affected by the economic disruption caused by the war.

The Government has appealed for international food aid to assist this population.

ETHIOPIA* (5 February)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in late 1998 estimated cereal and pulse production from the 1998 Meher season at 11.69 million tonnes, 36 percent up on last year but slightly less than the record crop of 1996. The increase is due to favourable rains, increased use of fertilizer and improved seeds, and a low incidence of pests and diseases.

The improved availability of cereals has resulted in falling grain prices in most markets. Only minimal imports, mainly rice, will be necessary in 1999. Given this favourable outturn, there should be scope for a significant build-up of stocks at all levels. Export possibilities to neighbouring countries will be restricted because of weak import demand and the closed border with Eritrea.

Despite the excellent harvest, some 2 million people will require an estimated 180 000 tonnes of food aid, excluding those from pastoral areas and some 395 000 internally displaced persons affected by the on-going conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. Due to ample domestic supplies, imported food aid is not needed this year. However, donors are strongly urged to support local purchases to provide some strength to the market.

In pastoral southern and eastern parts, dry weather has resulted in a deterioration of pastures and the condition of animals. Distribution of emergency water is underway in some areas. The Government is currently undertaking an assessment of the situation.