Battlefield defeats at the hand of rival factions, divisions inside his own clan and mounting diplomatic isolation have all undermined Aideed's ambitions of ruling all of Somalia and instead put him on the defensive. Western governments who have for long seen Aideed, a former U.S. Marine, as a major barrier to a peace settlement for the fractured country are now talking for the first time of simply pushing through a deal without him at peace talks.

``He is without doubt very weak,'' one senior diplomat said. ``He's not gone yet but he is in trouble. And that is good news.''

It was Aideed's father Mohamed Farah Aideed who did more than anyone else to force the withdrawal of U.S.-led international peacekeeping troops deployed to Somalia in 1992.

Foreign troops had tried to restore order after Somalia fell into chaos with the ouster of former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, but they left after suffering heavy casualties in fighting with militia groups. The country still has no government and is divided up into clan-based fiefdoms.

Hussein Aideed took over leadership of the powerful Somali National Alliance militia after his father's assassination in 1996 and had controlled large areas of southern Somalia outside his stronghold and natural power base in south Mogadishu.

But Aideed was brought up in California and had little experience of Somalia's complicated clan politics before inheriting his father's militia.

INEXPERIENCED AND OVERSTRETCHED

``He just keeps making mistakes. He's losing ground, and he can't keep his clan happy,'' said one security official with years of experience in Somalia.

But another diplomat said it was too early to write him off entirely. ``In Somalia, you're only finished when you are dead.''

Aideed gambled this year by allying himself with Eritrea, which is at war with Ethiopia over disputed border territories and wanted to open up a new front in the conflict by supporting small Ethiopian rebel groups based in Somalia.

Eritrea picked Aideed as its main ally because he had good relations with the rebel groups, and shipped him arms and machinery. That boosted his firepower but put him in conflict with Ethiopia, which responded by sending thousands of troops across the border into Somalia.

In June, Ethiopian forces helped the Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA), an anti-Aideed guerrilla force, drive his militia out of the strategic southern city of Baidoa, ending a four-year occupation started by Aideed's father.

Since then, the RRA has moved southeast and is threatening Aideed's control of Ballidogleh, the best airstrip in southern Somalia providing the only safe air link to south Mogadishu.

AIDEED'S SUPPORT WEAKENS

And his control of business from the port of Merca, about 80 miles (120 km) south of the capital, was this month overturned by the ``Islamic Courts'' -- led by religious elders who began by setting up a basic courts system inside Mogadishu but then developed links with businessmen and armed their own militia.

Aideed is currently in Kenya after spending weeks visiting his foreign allies in Libya, Egypt and Eritrea but sources say his reception was cool and that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is urging him to make concessions in order to survive.

That would mean making peace with Ethiopia, patching up differences inside his own clan and softening his opposition to an ambitious Djibouti-led peace initiative for Somalia which has won broad diplomatic support in recent weeks.

Western envoys are encouraging clan elders across Somalia, but especially on Aideed's home turf, to sideline the warlords and name other representatives to the Djibouti talks, aimed at forming a national government with strong autonomy for regions.

In an interview with Reuters in July, Aideed insisted he would force Ethiopia troops out of Somalia and regain his lost territories, but his position has weakened further since then and his enemies appear to be growing in confidence.

``Politically, I think he is defeated now,'' said Mohamed Said Hersi, the warlord better known as General Morgan.

Morgan is one of the faction leaders allied with Ethiopia and he says he is confident of retaking the southern port of Kismayu which was seized by allies of Aideed in June in the only military success he has enjoyed in recent months.