DISKUSI KRISIS EKONOMI


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Selamat datang di situs DisKrisek. Situs ini berupaya menghimpun rangkuman gagasan mengenai krisis ekonomi, yang telah melanda Indonesia dan Asia sejak pertengahan tahun 1997.
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Yang lalu : Edisi Oktober 1998

Kearah Regulasi Kapital Global (Rev.981018)
Hedge Fund LTCM Hampir Runtuh (Rev.981004)
Jurus Malaysia: Kebijakan Pengendalian Devisa (Rev.981004)
Jurus Hong Kong: Intervensi di Pasar Bebas (Rev.981026)
Riwayat Bantuan IMF (Rev.980910)

Anda dapat mengakses Edisi Oktober untuk pengantar topik-topik sebelum revisi ini. Antara lain mengenai: Krisis Keuangan Internasional, Penilaian dan opini kebijakan nilai tukar, Spekulator di Pasar Valas, Gagasan Kontrol Devisa dari Paul Krugman, Hong Kong Menghadapi Manipulator Pasar, Ketergantungan kepada IMF, dll.

Sejumlah artikel yang dapat diakses melalui situs ini merupakan seberkas acuan topik terkini permasalahan krisis ekonomi. Pendalaman materi dari berbagai pengalaman perekonomian masa kini dan masa lampau yang relevan menghangat kembali semoga dapat membentuk pemahaman yang bermanfaat menghadapi tantangan krisis.

EDISI DESEMBER 1998


PROSPEK EKONOMI GLOBAL

Awal Desember 1998, Bank Dunia menerbitkan Global Economics Prospect 1998/99. Dalam konperensi pers pada hari Rabu tanggal 2 Desember 1998 di Washington, terlontar komentar-komentar yang hangat mengenai penanggulangan krisis ekonomi.

World Bank Turns Up Criticism Of the IMF
[Washington Post, December 3, 1998]
By Paul Blustein

.....The World Bank fired an extraordinary barrage of criticism yesterday at its sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, denouncing as misguided the high interest rates and other painful austerity policies the IMF required several Asian countries to pursue in exchange for international bailouts....
......In the report and at the news conference bank officials also strongly questioned the value of unfettered capital flows across international borders and urged developing countries to impose controls over inflows of short-term funds from abroad.....

IMF and U.S. Mishandled Asia Crisis, World Bank Charges.
[International Herald Tribune December 3, 1998]
'Substantial Risk' of Recession Remains, but Worst-Hit Nations May Start to Grow Again in 2000.
By David E. Sanger, New York Times Service

.....The World Bank issued an implicit, searing assessment Wednesday of how its sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, had misjudged the financial crisis that began in Southeast Asia 18 months ago and had prescribed economic policies that turned investor panic into deep recessions.....
......The report leaves little doubt about what the international lending bank views as the key misjudgment: The IMF's decision - with the advice of the U.S. Treasury - to press Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea to raise interest rates in an effort to stabilize their currencies.
.......But the World Bank report amounts to a blow-by-blow account of how misjudgments - by global investors, by Asian officials who were blind to the risks that they were taking by depending on short-term foreign investments and finally by international officials trying to repair the damage - multiplied the damage.....
....... It also calls for a tremendous slowdown in the movement to deregulate financial markets in developing countries, a reversal of the policy that the IMF advocated as late as April 1997, just three months before the collapse of the Thai baht touched off the crisis.....

Report Forecasts Lowest Growth Since Eighties' Debt Crisis
[World Bank Group News and Events, December 3, 1998]

"What many expected to be no more than a slight blip has instead become a destabilizing factor in the global economy," says Joseph Stiglitz, World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.
"......Powerful policy steps taken recently are likely to foster world economic recovery in the medium-term...."

Global Economic Prospects 1998/99 : Summary
[World Bank, December 1998]
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries: Beyond Financial Crisis

......A series of events in the past 12 months has created a much more difficult and uncertain outlook for developing countries and the world economy over the next three years.
.....The interaction of institutional weaknesses in managing domestic financial system liberalization with international capital market imperfections, and the use of inconsistent macroeconomic policies, generated crucial vulnerabilities that laid the groundwork for the East Asian crises.
.....Surging capital inflows and weak financial regulation contributed to booms in domestic lending in East Asia, often to high-risk sectors such as real estate, resulting in fragile domestic financial sectors. Excessive corporate leveraging and some deterioration in returns made firms highly vulnerable to shocks affecting cash flow and net worth.
.....The primary role of fiscal and monetary policy is now to shore up aggregate demand, expand the social safety net, and contribute resources to recapitalize financial systems without adding to inflation.
.....Developing countries are vulnerable to financial crises, yet the domestic institutional structures and public policies needed to protect them from crises are slow to change. Partly because many small developing economies have become more exposed to waves of international capital market euphoria and panic, the frequency and costs of financial crises have increased in recent years.....

Global Economic Prospects 1998/99 : Foreword
by Joseph Stiglitz [World Bank, December 1998]

.....Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 1998/99 lays out the anatomy of the crisis in a clear and concise fashion, and assesses both the short- and long-term outlooks for the world economy and the developing countries in the aftermath of the crisis.
.....Understanding the nature of the East Asian crisis and the response of the international community is vital to shaping how well we rise to the challenge of crises in the future.
.....Unlike the Latin America debt crises of the 1980s, the East Asian crisis was not characterized by excessive sovereign borrowing or severe macroeconomic imbalances. As a result, policies that were successful in responding to the debt crisis were not necessarily optimal in the circumstances of East Asia. The initial policy responses may have failed to recognize quickly enough the costs of exacerbating the downturn at a time when banks and private businesses were already in trouble, demand was falling, and capital was flowing out.
.....The fact that such a large number of countries have been affected by this crisis and required large official bailouts suggests some fundamental systemic weaknesses. In order to deal with the risks posed by large capital flows, especially significant when financial systems are weak, the report suggests that reforms must be comprehensive, and include a combination of more flexible macroeconomic policies, tighter financial and where necessary, restrictions on capital inflows....

A New Strategy for the Global Crises [International Economics Policy Briefs]
by C. Fred Bergsten

Reports on the International Financial Architecture
October 30, 1998
Full text of a statement released by the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) industrial countries.
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7 also released a separate statement.

"......We must do more to build a modern framework for the global markets of the 21st century and to limit the swings of boom and bust that destroy hope and diminish wealth. We therefore call upon our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors to extend the reach of their work to pursue further proposals to strengthen the international financial system, ......"

The Global Economic Situation and the U.S. Approach
[Speech on October 1, 1998]
Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers: Remarks to The World Economic Development Congress

..... As the President said last week, "if we want these countries to do tough things, we have to protect the most defenseless people in the society and we have to protect people who get hurt when they didn't do anything wrong." ......Finally, we need to give very serious thought to how the global financial system and its institutions function with respect to preventing and responding to crises such as these.....

Stop Preaching [Financial Times, 5 November 1998]
by Jeffrey Sachs
The G7 has stopped blaming the victims for the global financial crisis. Jeffrey Sachs argues that now it must give them a bigger say in reform.
Komentar dari Jeffrey Sachs mengenai Deklarasi G-7.

......The G7's rhetoric against "Asian crony capitalism", backed by the International Monetary Fund's demands for abrupt bank closures, swinging budget cuts, and sky-high interest rates in the Asian countries, convinced the G7's own capitalists to cut and run, helping to launch a worldwide panic. .....Last week, the G7 finance ministers adopted a far more constructive approach.......
......It would be much better to build on tentative moves towards a true global dialogue such as the US's initiative to set up the Group of 22 "systemically significant economies" and the UN secretary general's call for a United Nations role in global financial reform. The aim would be to ensure that a real community of nations works to solve global problems. The G7 declaration looks forward to its next summit in Cologne in 1999. For the good of the world, that summit should be a dialogue of rich and poor together, not just a communion of the rich pretending to speak for the world.


ALIRAN MODAL INTERNASIONAL

Salah satu permasalahan terbesar dalam krisis yang telah terjadi. Dimana lagi adanya penegasan yang hendak diberikan, dan sudahkah ditemukan langkah perbaikan. Perkenalan dengan Stephen Grenville sebelum menyimak pidatonya dibawah ini.

Lihat : Aliran Modal dan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar


GAGASAN OTORITA MONETER INTERNASIONAL

Para pejabat Bank Sentral G-7 merincikan pandangan-pandangan yang seakan mendiktekan penyebab dan solusi krisis.

Lihat : Kumpulan Pidato Gagasan Otorita Moneter Mancanegara


KELEMBAGAAN DANA MONETER ALTERNATIF UNTUK ASIA

Apakah sebabnya IMF perlu dicarikan padanan? Khususnya, yang lebih ampuh dan berdedikasi untuk Asia atau Asia Pasifik. Jangan diabaikan kenyataan bahwa tindakan lebih 'serius' dan 'efektif' dari institusi internasional baru timbul setelah gejala-gejala krisis mulai meluas dan meng-global keluar wilayah Asia.

Reviving the Asian Monetary Fund [International Economics Policy Briefs, December 1998]
by C. Fred Bergsten

......Suitably elaborated and modified to include the United States and several other countries, however, an Asia Pacific Monetary Fund (APMF) could be extremely useful. An APMF could in fact provide a valuable regional complement for the International Monetary Fund ........
......The “new international financial architecture” that will hopefully emerge from the current crisis should thus include an Asia Pacific Monetary Fund. Europe already has a comprehensive regional structure with its Economic and Monetary Union. The Western Hemisphere should create an institution à la APMF to provide an economic and financial counterpart to the pending Free Trade Area of the Americas. Japan receives full credit for initiating the regional concept but the idea needs to be modified along the lines suggested here to ensure that it makes the large contribution to future international financial stability of which it is capable.

Internationalization of the Yen [November 12, 1998]
Council on Foreign Exchange and Other Transactions
Japan Ministry of Finance


HEDGE FUNDS DAN SOROS

Mengenal lebih lanjut liku-liku hedge funds, dan bagaimana perilaku bisnis derivatif yang dituding sebagai manipulator dan spekulator. Rekomendasi hasil riset Asia Inc., dan kebijakan baru oleh pemerintah Hong Kong dan Taiwan. Dan melihat sepak terjang Soros, Krugman menjelaskan dengan permainan kata-kata.


The International Crisis: An Interview with George Soros and Jeff Madrick (990103)

In December 1998, Soros published a new book, The Crisis of Global Capitalism, in which he writes that what he calls "market fundamentalism" may be "a greater threat to open society than totalitarian government today." Soros proposes more regulation of markets as well as the establishment of a global agency to help reduce market instability around the world. We discussed the current financial crisis and his proposed remedies in two conversations we had in December. --JM

Hedge Fund Mysteries: An Interview with Leon Levy [NY Books Review, Dec 17, 1998]

Sebuah perbincangan bersama seorang 'guru' di Princeton yang juga pemain hedge funds mengenai liku-liku pertaruhan uang tanpa batas, dimana tidak ada tatanan regulasi dan disana-sini mengandung unsur 'crony-ism'.

The Global Manipulators [ASIA Inc. November 1998]
By Allen T. Cheng
Despite recent setbacks, hedge funds may still lead the world down the path to destruction

It is now imperative that sweeping regulations be immediately set in place to mitigate future hedge fund onslaughts. What we are appalled at are the unmitigated currency attacks of the multibillion-dollar "global macro funds" of the likes of financier George Soros, Julian Robertson, Paul Tudor Jones and Michael Steinhardt & Partners....
"....The only way to completely protect an economy from hedge funds is to do what Malaysia did - impose exchange controls - or to wipe out futures trading...... Neither option is feasible for the long term if Asian countries want to be part of global capital markets....."

Nobel Laureates With Black Boxes [Forbes Dec 14, 1998]
By David Dreman

Two Nobel Prize winners were shareholders in Long-Term Capital. Myron Scholes was one of the originators of the Black Scholes option pricing model. Robert Merton developed the theory further. Both model and theory are rooted in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which I have so frequently criticized.
In 1987 a variation of the Black Scholes model caused two trading strategies—portfolio insurance and index arbitrage—to combine into a doomsday machine that cascaded tens of billions of dollars' worth of stock onto a collapsing market.
Masalahnya ialah model Black-Scholes mengasumsikan bahwa gerakan pasar yang tidak beralasan fundamental akan selalu terkoreksi kembali oleh pemahaman pasar yang efisien. Pada kenyataannya tidak sesederhana itu. Investor tidak selalu bertindak rasional. Banyak yang terbawa oleh emosi dan gelombang panik.
Tulisan ini berkesimpulan bahwa sepanjang Wall Street masih terkungkung oleh 'hipotesa pasar yang efisien', maka peristiwa tahun 1987 dan 1998 masih akan terulang.

Soros' Plea [November 12, 1998]
by Paul Krugman


Sejumlah links yang membahas krisis ekonomi Asia dan
berbagai topik ekonomi yang relevan
dapat diikuti dibawah ini:

World Bank
US Federal Reserve Board
Bank Sentral berbagai negara
Asia Crisis Homepage - Nouriel Roubini
CURRENCY BOARDS Kurt Schuler Homepage
Yahoo! Full Coverage - Asian Economic Woes
South China Morning Post Asian Crisis page
PAUL KRUGMAN Homepage
Financial Data and Resource Locator - Singapore

Penerbitan IMF :
IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessment in Full Text
IMF Publications

Memorandum Indonesia - IMF :
Letter of Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, November 13, 1998
Letter of Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, October 19, 1998
Letter of Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, September 11, 1998
Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, July 29, 1998
Second Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, June 24, 1998
Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, April 10, 1998

Aneka Artikel : 

EURO: Dampaknya bagi Asia (990107)
Aliran Modal dan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar (Rev.990109)
Kumpulan Pidato: Gagasan Otorita Moneter Internasional (Rev.981224)
Ilmu Ekonomi untuk Orang Awam (Rev.990109)
Kearah Regulasi Kapital Global (Rev.981018)
Hedge Fund LTCM Hampir Runtuh (Rev.981004)
Jurus Malaysia: Kebijakan Pengendalian Devisa (Rev.981004)
Jurus Hong Kong: Intervensi di Pasar Bebas (Rev.981026)
Riwayat Bantuan IMF (Rev.980910)

Kumpulan berbagai komentar, kritik dan saran-saran mengenai program kebijakan dan bantuan IMF kepada negara berkembang: tulisan Jeffrey Sachs, George Schultz, Joseph Stiglitz, artikel WSJ, FT, Washington Post, NYT, dll.
Tiga Makalah oleh Robert Wade mengemukakan analisa yang kritis terhadap "Wall Street - Treasury - IMF Complex" serta merangkum pandangan para pakar lainnya.


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Last updated Dec-1998 Edition Saturday 9 January 1999, 11:51 AM. Revisited   since 15 March 1999.