THE LATEST COMMENTS ARE ON THIS PAGE.AFTER THIS TRY PAGES 22 , 21 ,20 and 18. THE OTHER PAGES CONTAIN COMMENTS ON EVENTS SINCE MAY 1997.

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Pakistan and Politics

by ikram ul haq

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OF MARTIAL LAWS AND FOREIGN ACCOUNTS

WILL SIGN CTBT IN 1999?

IS MEHTAB ON THE WAY OUT?

THE FOOLS RETURN TO THE FOLD

SIGNING THE CTBT,PML MPA KILLED

MASSACRES IN THE AFGHAN CIVIL WAR

NAWAZ SHARIF LOSES CONSIDERABLE FACE

SOME BACK ISSUES AND OTHER MATTERS

PRESS TRICKS, ISLAM,IRANIAN INVASION ETC

OF MARTIAL LAWS AND FOREIGN ACCOUNTS---29th Sept 1998

• The Observer story on the Nawaz Sharifs foreign accounts puts his foreign wealth at a paltry 58 million dollars. They also suggest that his foreign holdings have been converted into four flats in Mayfair in the names of relatives and offshore registered companies. The story is the same as benazirs and nawaz sharifs legal crook opines that it is based on forged documents. According to local reports nawaz shifted around 300-400 million dollars overseas when he liberalised the foreign exchange scene in the early nineties. The story is actually based on a 200 page FIA report presented to the govt recently.
• The other part of the Observer story is more closer to reality. The army has threatened to impose martial law several times and reportedly many of nawaz sharifs foreign tours have been hastily arranged so that he might be out of the country when a martial law occurrs. It is also rumoured that nawaz has had to leave the country several times in the guise of foreign tours to arrange his foreign holdings. It is almost certain that a hunt for nawaz sharifs foreign holdings will begin as soon as he leaves govt.Some suggest that with foreign exchange resources dwindling even foreign tours are approved by threats. Apparently when the COAS wants to go abroad he threatens to impose martial law. When nawaz wants togo abroad he raises the spectre of martial laws imminent application.
• A hairaising murder which made people apprehensive has been concluded with the location of the severed head of Nina Aziz from the forests of Islamabad. Nina Aziz who lived alone and was an employee of a US multinational was killed by her servants who chopped of her head with an axe after doping her. The killers were apprehended from muzzafargarh while on their way to sind. This was the second female murder in islamabad within a few days.There are also reports that the murder might be politically motivated as Nina Aziz was considered by some to have links to influentials and foreign intelligence agencies
• Nawaz Sharifs CTBT signing may not take place after all as Madeiline Albright has suggested further caps on pakistans nuclear program. The US has also forced the IAEA to stop its investigation of Israels nuclear program which shows duality of purpose and a dishonesty of intention
• Iran maybe trying to blackmail pakistan into subjugation by its continuous support of sectarian violence in pakistan. Shiites tried to exploit the murder of a TJP leader in karachi and the rangers shot dead two of them while rioting . That caused further shiite instigated violence.Apparently the TJP leader was shot dead in retaliation for the killing of Shoaib Nadeem.However other reports suggest that the TJP pukhtun timber merchants were knocked out by MQM hitmen. MQM workers are still ethnically motivated and resent other ethnicities in karachi. Irans threats to afghanistan are also being seen here in a similar vein. Since nawaz has an inherent inability to deal with troublesome foreign affairs situations an all parties conference has been formed to mediate between iran and afghanistan.Iran apparently according to its defence minister has been trying to project its power beyond its own borders. Since irans influence is limited to meddlesome interference in afghanistan , pakistan and some CIS and arab states nobody is really worried.

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WILL SIGN CTBT IN 1999?---24th Sept 1998

• The MQM according to a PMLn MNA have again agreed to join the PMLn coalition after being page huge amounts. There is a growing suspicion that the MQM leadership has an underhand relationship with the countries security agencies.
• Nawaz sharif has again started to tow the indian line on the CTBT. After publically stating that pakistan will develop its own position on the matter Nawaz again fell for the indian line. The position now is that they will adhere to the CTBT and only sign it if india and israel also sign in September 1999.Otherwise they state that they are willing to sign the CTBT if sanctions are removed
• A new relationship with the WB and IMF could infuse funds into pakistans development starved economy.it is being suggested that the WB will agree to reinitiate the previous arrangements which might triger greater inputs in the social sector fields.
• In afghanistan the Saudi ambassador has been expelled or withdrawn for insisting on the extradition of Ossama Bren Laden and other suspects involved in terrorism in Saudi Arabia. The saudis have in fact broken of relations most probably under american pressure.
• The iranians on the other hand have completed their buildup on the afghan border and an invasion of afghanistan could take place in a week or two. With even pakistan creating problems for the taliban and refusing to help out in case of an iranian attack the taliban will have to depend on the russians , chinese or eastern block countries for arms and ammunition.
• Hubco accounts have been frozen for non payment of taxes
• 400 shops were gutted in karachis Boulton Market
• Three blocks are being formed in the PMLn coalition to counter Nawaz Sharifs autocracy. These blocks are tobe led by Khurshid Qasuri, Col Cheema and Hamid Jatoi,

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IS MEHTAB ON THE WAY OUT?---24th Sept 1998

There seems tobe some indications that the NWFP chif minister might be on his way out. A group led by mpas from hazara mehtabs home turf claim to have enough support to create an inhouse change. This is one of the rareties in pakistans present politics. All parties tend to stick to their original choices for chief minister till their govts end one way or the other.Mehtabs opponents claim to have the support of at least fifteen members with a few supposed to be behind the scene . The proposed chief minister to replace mehtab could be any one of three. Yousaf Ayub, Salim Saifullah and Sabir Shah are supposedly being considered.The dissidents have been at odds with mehtab for some time and the selection of the recent ministers probably added fuel to the fire. However the dissident mpas cannot disobey the PMLn high command which generally dislikes disobedience and can theoretically get the ring leaders thrown out of the provincial assembly.

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THE FOOLS RETURN TO THE FOLD---21th Sept 1998

• The MQM the proverbial coalition breakers have once again returned to the fold. As expected the MQM could not remain in the cold for very long and decided after several days of negotiation with Chaudhry Nisar to sit on the treasury benches and thus save Liaqat Jatoi's minority govt. This is probably a temporary reprieve and the MQM is expected to leave the coalition again. Reports in the press suggest that the PPP gathered around 48 mpas for their no confidence move against jatoi and if they can break a few more members from the PMLn coalition then there is a minor possibility of a new govt in sind.
• Sectarianism is on the upswing again and there have been several murderous incidents in the past few days starting with the Shoaib Nadeem murder and todays murder of four near Kot Addu. The countries sectarianism is a slowly burning fire and events in neighbouring afghanistan which sometimes turn into a sunni-shiite fight and the iranian shiite regimes broadcasts against the Talibans straight religion orientation is also having a negative impact. Iran should be careful in attacking other islamic orientations as its own brand of islam is also considered suspect by the vast majority.

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SIGNING THE CTBT,PML MPA KILLED---20th Sept 1998

• Nawaz Sharif is on his way to New York for his meeting with Clinton and addressing the UN.The UN setting may see an initial reapproachement between the USA and IRAN as both will sit on ameeting of afghan neighbours. On the other hand Nawaz may agree to sign the CTBT if $5 billion can be arranged to cover pakistans financial woes.The IMF has not agreed to any new arrangements and the old arrangement is not enough.It seems apparent that the army has coached Nawaz on all the issues. The army is willing to sign the CTBT as it continually needs modern arms only available from the West. Pakistans pressing need is especially in fighter aircraft and naval ships. In both areas pakistan is lacking behind india in modernization. Pakistan seems however to have become self sufficient in missiles which were earlier denied it except in the anti aircraft field.Also pakistan is striving to develop sufficient detterrence in nuclear offence so as to keep opponnents like india wary of a full scale attack.The present indian defence minister thinks that they can overrun the part of kashmir under pakistans control. The pakistan army which has concentrated on defence for the last two decades might one day take the offensive and move forward to resolve the kashmir despute militarily as there seems no possible solution on the diplomatic front.However Nawaz seems wary of a war with india being a trifle on the cowardly side. Since the americans have already backed out of the financial quid pro quo the politicians might find it difficult to sign the CTBT as it would have little utility if the financial problems are not solved even after its signing. Such a govt would not last long . Some however suggest that the USA has ensured Pakistan a sufficient supply of aircraft if a war breaks out.
• A PML MPA from Shakargarh has been killed in Sheikhupura apparently as a result of political enmity. In karachi seven people were killed including a director of the KMC.

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MASSACRES IN THE AFGHAN CIVIL WAR---19th Sept 1998

• Apart from the nine iranians killed by the Taliban there have have been several massacres in the recent war in Afghanistan. While the advancing taliban have killed hundreds of shiite pro iranian supporters the shiites are only paying for what they did to the taliban earlier.In the Talibans first attack on mazar Sharif the pro iranian gen abdul malik killed around 2500 taliban by first supporting them and then going over to the hizb wahdat. The massacred Taliban were stuffed in mass graves in desert wells. In retaliation for the the nine consular staff killed in mazar sharif the iranians inhumanely killed around 56 afghans according to press reports. The headless corpses of afghans killed in iran have caused pandemomium in the herat area of afghanistan.The retreating Hizb Wahdhat has been particularly cruel in killing around 35 pakistani prisoners by throwing hand grenades into their cells. The pakistani foreign minister has categorically refused to intervene in a[possible] iran-afghan war and has ordered the pakistani border with afghanistan closed. There are around 10000 pakistanis fighting on the taliban side in afghanistan. The pakistani foreign minister also does not expect an iran-afghan war at the moment. He also categorically denied any official involvement in the afghan civil war.

NAWAZ SHARIF LOSES CONSIDERABLE FACE---18th Sept 1998

• Nawaz Sharifs attempts to become allah, prophet, amirulmomineen, primeminister all rolled into one sweet sandwich is facing considerable problems. In the meeting with his mnas on the 15th amendment he lost considerable face when he blew up at an mna for talking against the bill. The mna khurshid mahmud kasuri retaliated that he was within his democratic rights to discuss the bill with colleagues. Nawaz than challenged him to resign if he was opposed to them. This the mna did immediately. About thirty or forty other mna's reportedly also wanted papers to write their resignations. However the matter was hushed up and the resignation reportedly torn up. Deep divisions are developing amongst the PMLn on the issue and Nawaz is waiting for his top troubleshooters to return from abroad before he pushes the bill further. Similarly the bill on signing CTBT was not presented in the house and the debate on the issue was allowed to end inconclusively. Nawaz apparently was unable to convince mnas that the USA will become a true friend if CTBT is signed and they will than give us whatever we want. That and suggestions that india could use the inspection clauses even without signing raised considerable heat and mockery. Nawaz Sharif is developing a very autocratic image and is known to get extremely agitated at discussions amongst his party mnas which oppose his line of thinking.
• On the other hand the opposition sees solutions only in greater provincial autonomy and a federal type of govt as opposed to the govts CTBT signing and rule of quran and sunnah. Their proposed federal govt is one in which provincial chief ministers become heavyweights and each province opposes projects of other provinces.This is based on suggestions of smaller provinces to be treated equally and is aimed at the dominance of punjab which the present systems improper functioning has caused. The people however disagree as the suggestions will lead to provinces attacking the center all the time and creates difficulty in solutions when provincial law and order breaks down. Pakistan has at the moment a non federal central govt which decides everything and provincial govts which deal with law and order, agriculture, health, education and local bodies. There is however a need for a change in the thought process to shift away from provincialism and concentrate financial spending on areas of greater need on a countrywide basis rather than on the basis of population concentrations.
• There are also rumours that the army is getting agitated at Nawaz Sharifs non interest in important matters of security. Nawaz Sharif at times takes days to address pressing problems and feigns a non interest in important problems. This is based on not having a discusiion forum attached to the prime ministers office and thus it takes considerable time for matters to sink into Nawaz Sharifs seemingly thick head
• Pakistan has stepped up its campaign to subdue iranian anger at the way the taliban rule afghanistan. Iran is unable to understand that afghanistan is not a subordinate state and that they will not be dictated to. People in pakistan are urging the govt to stand upto iran and as a counterpoint move forces to the border with iran. Iran should be made to understand that their bullying will not be tolerated whether it is directed at afghanistan or pakistan. Meanwhile the taliban have moved around 25000 troops to their border with iran where iran has amassed around 200000 troops in preperation for an invasion of afghanistan
• The only other way to stop an invasion in its tracks is for the americans to threaten to cruise Tehran if they cross the afghan border . That would be a much better use of cruise missiles than using them at random against puny terrorists.
• The UN should immediately recognize the Taliban govt and urge govts of the world to open their diplomatic and financial arms to this war ravaged country so asto move towards normalcy sooner than later. Attempts at intervention either by iran or others will only delay matters by years if not decades. Recognition and the opening of diplomatic channels can easily solve some pressing problems. The world should also let the country work out its problems of tribalism and forms of govt. Attempts at imposing outside solutions have historically seen failure and will not be successful even in these modern times

SOME BACK ISSUES AND OTHER MATTERS---16th Sept 1998

• My telephone line has been out of order for some ten days therefore some issues have not been covered which i shall attempt to do now
• The govt. seems to be backing out of the initial version of its 15th amendment and is attempting to change the amendment to get some support for its passage.
• The govt. is also trying to get support for signing the CTBT so that sanctions can be lifted. However there seems tobe a lot of opposition from people like Hameed Gul and the JI
• Murders have continued in Karachi with that of Sajjad Hussein the former chairman of the Steel Mills being the most prominent. Sajjad Hussein was involved in a bribery case with Asif Zardari. A head of the BISE was also knocked off as was a govt. attorney presenting the case in the Iranian engineers killing.
• In between the govt. also lost the support of its last ally that is the JWP and the MQM. The JWP was annoyed at not being assigned the balochistan chief ministry. The govt. is now running a minority govt. in Sind and has lost its majority in the Senate.
• Benazir Bhutto seems to have become a paid lobbyist for the Iranian Govt. which is now totally anti Pakistan since the Taliban knocked out their diplomats stationed in Mazar Sharif. The Taliban have captured the last Iranian outpost in Afghanistan i.e. Bamiyan.
• There is speculation that Benazir Bhutto has knocked out a Swissair plane for instituting false cases against her
• The inter MQM battle for the control of MQM continues with almost daily murders of MQM activists.
• The dollar reached RS 63 to the dollar in the open market before falling a few rupees. There was speculation that the govt. too would devalue but that did not happen
• The liberal wing of the PMLn characterized by former PPP walas such as Abida Hussein etc are also opposing the 15th amendment. The law was apparently drafted without any party input and nawaz is now seeking party input after many in his party threatened to abstain.
• A PPP activist was found murdered in Rawalpindi
• Six MQM men have been indicted for burning the Pakistani flag in Karachi
• There was a 13.5% drop in exports in July 1998 and a 25% drop in imports.
• There were moves afoot to make the ANP's Ajmal Khattak the Senate chairman which have not materialized. Wasim Sajjad hails from hazara and has old ties to the PPP and the ziaists. His father was CEC in 1977.
• In the MQM STRONGHOLD OF Hyderabad SOME MISCREANTS RAISED THE INDIAN FLAG
• Nawaz Sharif who has a penchant for playing on peoples emotions suddenly flew off to London in the middle of the night on the 9thin a specially hired plane. That openly mocked his avowed claim of practising austerity. Ha! Ha!. Its the peoples money I will continue to waste it. His reasons ostensibly to call on Sheik Zaid who was in London for a regular medical checkup. Others suggested he was kicked out of the country to avoid the implementation of martial law. Some others suggested he went to work on Altaf to get his support for his minority sind govt. There are however reports suggesting that moves have begun to replace nawaz sharif. Whether they reach fruition is another matter as politicians prefer nawaz to a beaurocrat or a militaryman.Still others suggested that he wasted govt money on a special plane because his LSE educated son was having marital problems or was rebelling against his family
• The Uchh gas field was closed down after a rocket attack
• Two C-130s of 1960's vintage crashed into each other at the Chaklala base killing five
• Mqm is still supporting Liaqat jatoi despite sitting on the opposition benches.
• An ismaili scholar who converted to Islam was killed in Karachi raising the suspicions that many of Karachi's killers are Shiite in orientation
• An SSP leader Shoaib Nadeem along with a few others was gunned down in Islamabad
• The Iranians are making war noises and piling up troops on the afghan border. This has come after confirmation of the killing of 10 consulate staff in mazar sharif by advancing taliban. One wonders what they were doing in mazar sharif when all others had left. The Iranians grief over the death of their staff is a total sham The Iranians were openly interfering in Afghanistan by arming the hizb wahdat the Shiite militia, which opposed the taliban. The northern areas were considered the strongholds of the Shiites therefore the Iranians probably thought themselves to be safe. The escalation of the afghan conflict by a possible invasion by Iran could leave Pakistan in no mans land. The Iranians are now asking for the extradition's of the killers which request the taliban have turned down. Since the Iranians have also attacked Pakistan's embassy in Tehran several times and have made unfounded allegations against the Pakistan army some observers consider the possibility of Pakistan breaking off relations in the event of an afghan invasion by Iran a possibility. The Iranians are almost totally anti Pakistan at the moment and in case of an Iranian invasion Pakistan would have to help Afghanistan get rid of its new invaders as it did in the case of the Russian invasion

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PRESS TRICKS, ISLAM,IRANIAN INVASION ETC--30.8.1998

• In what may turn out tobe Nawaz Sharifs achilles heel the normally pro Nawaz owner of the Jang and News has accused the govt of pressure tactics and harassment. The Jang is one of the most pro govt newspapers in the country and gets the most govt adverts too. However nawaz has of late tried to target the press for speculative stories based on insider information. The Jang owner says that Mushahid Hussein the two faced information minister tried to force him to fire editors such as Maleeha Lodhi and Hussein Haqqani and some urdu newsreporters. The Jang owner who has made millions thru tax concessions that newspapers get has apparently also received excessive tax notices. One of the few press barons in the country he is attempting to start an insurance empire too. The Jang is often accused of flagrant speculation and some suspect its involvement in criminal activities such as bomb blasts, robberies, dacoities, murders and blackmail.
• The iranians are at it again and there seem tobe signs that they might invade afghanistan in the garb of getting back iranians under detention by the Taliban. The Taliban have threatened to retaliate and launch a holy war to liberate iran from the clutches of anti islamic shiites.Pakistan might than have to openly support the Taliban.
• The govt has introduced the 15th amendment bill to declare that the Quran and sunna shall be the law of the land. That would outlaw shiaism. This is being considered as the third coming of islam in pakistan. Usually past govts have used islam to prop themselves when in the throws of death As usual the bill was forced thru a committee without discussion as the opposition and minority members walked out There are some indications that the law might get stuck in the Senate where the govt does not have a two thirds majority. The pakistani parliament is as usual trying to play God. Religion theoretically cannot be promulgated by human law as it is the responsibility of Allah.The question now arises whether parliament is supreme or Allah??

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