General Election 1999, Malayisia

General Election 1999, Malaysia

Data & An Analysis

This set of data can be used for any other analyses of the Malaysian General Election of 29 Nov 1999.
This particluar analysis, for example, focuses on the potential impact of the 685,000 registered-but-ineligible voters.
Details underlying the third assumption that "80% of these ineligible voters would likely vote for the Opposition" was adapted from the ideas of Dr. Jomo K.S.
The findings are summarized below. For full discussion, see ineligible.htm

685,000 Voters Would Give Barisan Alternatif 12 More Seats

The Barisan Alternatif would add 12 parliamentary seats had the 685,000 newly registered voters been allowed to vote in the 29 Nov 1999 general election.
Five Opposition heavy-weights would have entered the Parliament, and one Cabinet Minister lost.
While the 0.685m represent only 7% increase to the 9.6m eligible voters, they can increase Opposition seats by 27% from 45 seats to 57, or from 23% of the parliament to 30% of the parliament.
A common-sense estimate supports the assumptions that 80% of these "ineligible" voters would vote for the BA. This study also fully discounts for actual turnout and spoiled vote ratios.
A 90% preference by the "ineligible" would have enabled BA to deny BN's 2/3 majority.
The results compel the BA and the NGOs to stress a future strategy of new voter education and registration, because they will make a big difference.

A Simplified Package With Complete Data

If you are looking mainly for pure data, do not want to be bothered with tracing the accuracy of the linkages to the original data from The Star website, and you can handle ZIP files, I suggest you download this Simplified & Practical Package with complete data (ge1999package.zip, 100kb) . CSV format is text-base, and should be easily opened with most spreadsheet and database programs, including Excel and even text editors. Columns of data are separated by commas (,). In Excel, for example, after unzipping, click File Open, choose "File of Type: All Files". If you want to see the analytical flow underlying "ineligible.htm", you will have to download ineligible_xls.zip (170kb) from Set 2 in the table below. This package (ge1999package.zip) contains only four simple files, but includes complete raw data, as listed below:

ge1999-s_consol_by_candidates.csv (in CSV, or comma-delimited format, comma-separated-value file)
ge1999-s_legend.csv (legend for data, in CSV, comma-delimited format)
ineligible.htm (document discussing 685,000 voter issue, in HTML format)
This Index page zipped (HTML Web page)

About The Table Below

The table below shows the whole set of files available for download, their format, size and comments.
There is much overlap in data. Some of the Excel workbooks show the full linkages and formulae. The HTML and CSV versions of data files are text only, and lose all the useful Excel links.
They are arranged generally with the most summarized on top, down to the raw materials at the bottom.
The size when downloading or emailing for some technical reasons unknown to me may turn out to be larger than indicated here.
Remember to download a zipped version of this index page for reference and file organization later

Set	File name / Zipped?	HTML or text version available? Zipped?	Content Description
1	ineligible.doc (43kb) MS Word 6.0/95 ineligible_doc.zip (11kb)	ineligible.htm (220kb) [Note 1] ineligible_htm.zip (14kb)	Document analysing the impact of ineligible voters Note 1: Recommended for readibility on the Web. Medium large but managable.
2	ineligible.xls (470kb) MS Excel ineligible_xls.zip (170kb) [Note 2] Zipped Excel file with links and some interactive capacity intact	The first two are LARGE and SLOW to download, but clearly laid-out for viewing on the Web. ineligible_xls _1_summary.xls.htm (540kb) ineligible_xls _2_parliamentary_winners.htm (723kb) ineligible_xls _3_potential _winners_for _scenarios.htm (56kb) The above three are HTML version of the sheets from Excel workbook of the left, with the links and interaction taken out, frozen at "80%-ineligible-for-opposition" scenario. ineligible_xls _html.zip (151kb) Zipped version of the above 3 plus legend.htm (77kb)	Excel and data sheets analysing the impact of ineligible voters Note 2: Recommended for showing the "ineligible" analysis using Excel, and interactivity to handle some scenarios
3	ineligible-negeri.xls (885kb) ineligible-negeri.zip (286kb)		A State-level analysis of impact of 685,000 ineligible. Parallel to Set 2. Showing BA potentially increasing State seats from 113 by 27 to 140.
Sets 1 and 2 above are text and data relating to one particular analysis (685,000 ineligible voters) at Parliamentary level. Set 3 is a parallel study for State level election, without documentary discussion.

4	ge1999-s.xls (720kb) ge1999-s.zip (210kb)	ge1999-s_consol_by_candidates.csv (390kb) (CSV format) ge1999-s_legend.csv (8kb) (legend for data, CSV format) Zipped file containing the above 2 CSV files (86kb) [Note 3] legend.htm (77kb) Also legend, in HTML format	Complete raw data of Parliamentary plus State election on one sheet; the explanatory legend on another sheet. Extracted from the large Excel file below, but with Excel links severed. The CSV files are essentially text file, with columns of data delimited by commans (,). Suitable for Excel or non-Excel programs. Note 3: The CSV files are recommended for their small size and usability across almost all spreadsheet programs. Or get the Simplified Package ge1999package.zip (100kb) as recommended above.
5	File size is large ge1999.xls (6.8MB) MS Excel ge1999.zip (1.7MBb)		The Excel workbook/worksheets which painstakingly extract data from The Star and Kwong Wah webpages below. The webpages have been appended to the workbook, which makes the file size so large. In the Excel file, you will be able to trace/link every piece of data to the text/cells from the Webpages.
6	Zipped directories of HTML webpages reporting GE1999 results at The Star (no longer available on the Web). The Star home	File size is large polls.thestar. com.my.zip (1.5MB)	Unzip this into a separate directory called polls.thestar.com.my. Start from "index.htm". This is only zipped for your convenience. Any copyright remains with The Star.
7	Zipped directories of HTML webpages reporting GE1999 results at Kwong Wah newspapers (no longer available on the Web) Kwong Wah home	www.kwongwah. com.my.zip (230kb)	Unzip this into a separate directory called www.kwongwah.com. Start from "index.htm". This is only zipped for your convenience. Any copyright remains with Kwong Wah.

Additional Notes:

To give you an idea, these are the columns of data available for the 1999 General Election at the Parliamentary and State levels (see legend for full details):

	Code with State Number, P or N, and SeatNo2
	Negeri or Parlimen seat
	State number, standardised, with "0" in front of single digit
	Seat No
	Seat number, without "0" in front of single digit. For sorting
	State name
	Name of location

	Name of party of candidate
	Name of coalition, only BN or BA
	Candiate name

	Total number of eligible voters
	Total number of turnout for district
	% of turnout
	Spoiled votes for district
	Number of vote won by candidate
	Margin between winner and runner-up in this seat
	True or Not That The Candidate Won
	True or Not That Deposit Was Forfeited
	Chinese Name where available, in Big5 encoding

	Winning candidate in previous election
	Winning coalition in previous election
	Winning party in previous election
	Majority in the previous election in this seat
	Total voter number in the previous election
	Total voter number in the current election

	Ethnic Malay as % of local voter population
	Ethnic Chinese as % of local voter population
	Ethnic Indian as % of local voter population
	Ethnic other groups as % of local voter population

	Notes on local voter profile (demography, local economy, local industries)
	Runner up candidate in the latest election
	Coalition that the runner up candidate belong to
	Vote won by the runner up candidate

Modified: 2001 June 22
For correction, contact: saengch@tm.net.my
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