Another day, another new low, another V bottom call, and another buying opportunity for dipsters. What a nightmare it has been for those diving into tech stocks looking for "bargains". The reason I put quotation marks around it is because that's what people call them, but its not really the case. The average P/Es, P/Ss, etc. are still outrageous for components of the QQQs. Things are blowing up left and right. Today it was ORCL. People actually thought an earnings miss was priced into the stock. Oh sure, after it goes up 12.5% by the market close for the day, that's DEFINITELY pricing in an earnings blow up.

What's happening in the tech world isn't a slowdown. Its dyno-mite! All the expectations of huge growth from ever increasing bases of earnings(sometimes) and revenues is difficult to meet. Especially after all the manic projects and spending that went on over the past 2 years messing up all sense of reality. I must have said this a thousand times, but its worth repeating. What happened in 1999 and 2000 is an ANOMALY. Absolute junk was bid up to ridiculous heights, stressing out short sellers and rational thinkers. Take the 1999 and 2000 charts off your EEEE box and fuggetaboutit. And these tech stocks with their repeated splits and downhill ski slope charts look cheap, but definitely are not. Looking at 1998 prices will be a splash of cold water for those thinking that CSCO is cheap, ORCL is cheap, etc.

In the projections department, I'm obviously long-term bearish about the Nasdaq. But looking at the post Nikkei bubble in the early 90s, its seems that there is a point where a stand is made by the bulls, where a sharp rally occurs and the index lingers on for a few months at higher levels off the lows. And of course, eventually sells off again to make fresh new lows. It looks like today could have been the day where the bulls made their stand, and rally the techs up from here to the 2300-2500 range, where it could spend a few months to base and go lower still and break 2000 for good. I hear so much about the 2nd half recovery and how stocks will bounce then. I believe the market might actually be perverse and foil that strategy. I think the Nasdaq is much more likely do better for the next couple of months and really tank again later this year. I still believe in the post bubble pattern, but the downtrend has been so persistent since October, there might be a little reprieve for a few months just to trap more bulls before the next leg down to break 2000. I think the market players will need to digest these lower prices, and their conclusion will be that they will have to sell in order to preserve capital.