Welcome
Radar Screen
Articles Archive
Trading Rules
GT0 List
Books List
Author's Profile
Back to Main Page
Of Shepherds and Mutton
10/24/00 8:41 PM EST

The raging bull market of the past five years has created a phenomena which is an extension of market psychology. It involves the shepherd and the sheep. You see, the shepherds are greedy, and the mutton are fearful. The shepherds believe they have some kind of special talent, that translates into smugness, and leads them into a herding initiative. The mutton are those that are green or have been burnt by a past broker or were unsuccessful with their OTC BB "investments". Its really a match made in heaven. You have shepherds that need fresh supplies of sheep to keep the profits rolling to pay the monthly Ferrari payments. The sheep need a security blanket, even if it costs them hundreds of dollars per month, to deal with the market's swings and their own cluelessness. And they are generally happy under the guru, since they are doing better than they were alone, since, as a prerequisite, the sheep have usually been sheared in previous market experiences. Thus, not losing all their money is actually an improvement over past performance.

So how do these shepherds find these sheep? Word of mouth is one way, but not really as relevant in this fast moving internet age. The party congregates in stock discussion communities, such as Silicon Investor, Raging Bull, Yahoo!, and Motley Fool. It begins innocently with the shepherds offering investment picks, but on a time-delayed basis after all the "close" friends and members get the information first. So the service that one gets on the free stock community threads is old news, all the buying/shorting has been done, additional monkeys joining on board is gravy for the gurus. A convenient way to attract more customers. Of course, you can receive that first wave of information by anteing up the site fees to join the exclusive, almight, private site. This is the guru's ultimate goal and salvation. Riskfree dollars in exchange for front running an unbridled herd willing to turn and run at a moment's notice. In exchange for shoddy, sterile research, the sheep get the comfort of feeling connected to the market's pulse, having a helping hand from a "professional" who supposedly knows what they are doing. BS technical analysis babble or funnymental research is used to support their case for the picks.

The results for the mutton are disastrous in the long run. A few might learn how to trade and notice market patterns and tendencies, while most will lose a ton while stubbornly holding momo barf bags gone stale. Then the search for the new guru will begin again. Never realizing how to make money other than to follow a leader, never absorbing anything inside their monkey brains, and consistently holding losers till the margin reaper comes calling. Unfortunately for the sheep, they hardly ever find the holy grail of trading acumen necessary to traverse all types of markets, they will be overconfident during good times, and gone bust during bad times. The propaganda and misinformation passed down from financial websites and CNBC inundates the average investor with osmotic neural shock, where the brain just picks up something based on hearing and reading it over and over again. Fibonacci retracements, Elliott wave analysis, overbought oversold indications, "new economy" rationalization for overvaluation, past history flashbacks to years such as 1990 and 1994 to use as a guide, market strategist random number generator targets, and so on. Neural networks are hard to form under these non-ideal conditions, as bull$#!t has a tendency to mess up the circuitry.

Please send all comments, inquiries, and flames to: marketrants@yahoo.com