• H O M E
• Concepts
• Technology
• Design >>>
• Resources
• Supercars
• Ultimate Cars
• Automotive Intelligence
• Auto Index
• Car Design News
• Mail

FUTURE TRENDS

In urban commuting, due to the frequent start/stop scenario, an estimated 80% of the total energy consumed by cars comes from the effects of mass. So vehicle mass reduction is a key strategy for reducing energy intensity in city driving but if we de-link from the idea of a cheap eco-box micro car, and instead think in terms of entirely new transportation products that give consumers the intangible benefits they want, we might discover new opportunities and profits with much smaller vehicles. It would not be surprising to see marketing successes along these lines before year 2010, perhaps with products that are radically different from what we traditionally think of as an automobile.

But irrespective of whether new vehicle types are in the cards or not, exterior dimensions are expected to continue to shrink as new power train and packaging refinements evolve. The one-box design will ultimately win out as the outside of the car shrinks around the passenger zone and the traditional hood and trunk regions largely disappear (Mercedes 'A' class). A vehicle with so much of its space devoted to mechanical hardware and luggage is just not very space-efficient, and over the long term, what works best tends to win. There are lots of new vehicle technologies out there - It goes beyond power system architecture and the shape of the automobile to include our way of designing and building it as well. Three-dimensional computer modeling, computer simulation, virtual prototyping, computer-aided-manufacturing - the computerization of all these processes from concept to finished product - is expanding capabilities, compressing the time it takes to get things done, and creating what amounts to a whole new paradigm for the way the job is done.

With the business becoming customer driven, focusing on the customer has become imperative. Globally many companies have moved to satisfy the customer by discovering mass customization. The big boys amongst auto companies have high hopes for the more extreme build-to-order (BTO) approach. VW, Ford and GM are believed to have already launched experiments with full-fledged BTO systems for customers. There is an attempt by companies in every sector to give the consumer more choices. They are becoming mass customizes who efficiently provide individually customized goods and services.
Rajesh Sukumaran

"Probably the best proof of a concept vehicle is competition- that is, motor racing. If you think of it, a racecar is the ultimate prototype- a specialized vehicle designed to perform in a "controlled environment." Of course the immediate goal is to win, but racing technology does eventually make its way into production vehicles.

Just look at the issues we're discussing- plastic and composite body panels, space frames, exotic engines, special fuels. In the not-to distant past, these were technologies used only by racing teams. Today, plastic or composite body panels are used routinely and in growing numbers on production vehicles, space frames are seriously considered for family sedans, computer-controlled 2-stroke diesels are used in "hybrid" vehicles, fuel cells will appear in production cars within a decade, CNG and methanol are used in a growing number of fleet vehicles.

My suggestion for a prototype 4 wheel drive vehicle would be a twin-engine design, using existing front-wheel drive components. For the donor vehicles I would pick a reasonably robust type (I favor GM or Ford for this reason.) I would put a 4 cylinder, normally aspirated (throttle body preferably) front wheel drive engine/transaxle in the front of the vehicle and a V6 or supercharged 4-cylinder front wheel drive engine/transaxle in the rear position. If possible, the existing engine mount sub frames should be used, bridged between the drive train assemblies by a space-frame chassis. Since this would be a one-off, or one of a very limited number of vehicles, the frame would have to be welded up from pieces of steel tubing. I would prefer aluminum for its lightweight, but steel tubing is cheaper and easier to weld. The bodywork needn't be elaborate, and for an off-road racing vehicle, aerodynamics aren't as important as they are for road course or formula racing (on the other hand it might be instructive to look at American "sprint" class dirt-track racing vehicles. They don't approach the speeds of F1 racers on a 1/4-mile dirt track, but they sport rather large airfoils.)

In the US, it would be cheaper to lay up or purchase fiberglass (GRP) body parts.

Aluminum has been used in auto body construction since the early 1900s, but in the 1970s, fiberglass replaced formed aluminum as the material of choice for race vehicle bodywork. On the other hand, aluminum sheet can be formed and assembled by relatively unskilled workers (that would include me: I have little "hands-on" fiberglass experience) so long as only simple curves are used. I would direct your attention to the homebuilt aircraft industry for examples of aluminum sheet construction, especially Zenithair. For airplane homebuilders, aluminum is often the material of choice. One of its biggest advantages is that it can be precisely pre-punched and formed by very accurate CNC machinery. (This might be applicable to projects similar to the "Africar" concept, where bodywork was planned to have been done by local labor. Precut, pre-punched, preformed components could be made at a central location, or in a "developed" country such as Taiwan, Malaysia, India, or even the US or Europe, and shipped to a "developing" country such as- Afghanistan?- and easily riveted together with "blind" rivets [using hand tools] by quickly trained local workers. My first choice for the work force? Widows with children; hire the people most in need.

Designing a car that does something better than any other vehicle yet built can do is actually relatively easy- but manufacturing it is a completely different set of problems. With the "clean sheet of paper" approach, it's just a matter of applying the best current technologies to solving the problem- welding a space frame of aluminum, for example, to take advantage of its lighter weight; however, aluminum requires more expensive mig and/or tig welding in an assembly line process, and it costs a lot more than steel. It therefore costs a lot more to make than a steel structure- and this is before we recognize the economies of scale enjoyed by the largest auto manufacturers.

I think if I was in a country like India, and wanted to try my hand at building a 4wd vehicle, I would start with an existing design and proceed from there- for example, the Mahindra jeeps. They use a time- proven drivetrain on a "ladder" chassis with a pressed-steel body. Certainly there is room for improvement there- by replacing the steel ladder chassis with a welded-up steel tube space frame one gains a lot of chassis stiffness- essential in a good car design. Hanging lighter-weight composite body panels instead of steel reduces vehicle weight, which translates into either better performance or larger carrying capacity.

Further refinements in the engine efficiency are possible- such as converting gasoline (petrol) engines to Miller cycle engines. (I'm not sure if diesel engines can benefit from a Miller- type modification, simply because they're already reasonable efficient.)

If this sounds like I'm describing designing a Paris-to-Dakar rally car, that's about right. I'd see about converting the live axles on the Mahindra vehicles with independant suspension, and after designing in some very long suspension travel, add some rather stiff racing springs and shocks- and try to squeeze 1.5 hp per cubic inch out of the engine..."

I think part of my original point was this: There are thousands of parts in a present-day automobile. Each part costs thousands of dollars (if not tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands) to design, and a major design component, such as an engine, can cost millions, hundreds of millions... So even the richest companies use existing, standard components whenever possible. A good example is the Pontiac Solstice concept car, which may soon be in production. Engine and transmission, front and rear suspension and many other components were taken from the GM parts bin, thus keeping the cost down, and likely insuring that the car will soon be made."

To follow up my first message :::::::::::

"It seems to me that a space-frame chassis made by welding up generic, off-the-shelf aluminum extrusions and sheets, and using the newest friction-stir welding techniques, is another potential cost and time saver, lending itself to low and medium volume production efficiencies. I think this may be especially true if the main structure is composed of a welded space frame and the bodywork is made up of unstressed plastic (molded thermoplastic or composite) panels. Styling changes would be simplified, and many different models could be assembled on a common chassis design (Pontiac Fiero is the inspiration for this, as well as the Chevrolet Lumina/Pontiac TransSport/Oldsmobile Silhouette minivans. The Fiero is the basis for a number of moderately successful rebody projects, which involve replacing the standard body panels with specially styled aftermarket parts.) Other examples are found in VW-based "off-road" racing vehicles and "dune buggies," popular in California some decades ago. These (for the most part) homemade creations generally consisted of a VW chassis with fiberglass (GRP) body bolted on, or a specially-constructed space-frame chassis which had minimal body parts attached.

This is all well and good for a small number of sporting and/or racing fanatics, but in general the buying public likes to have the structural and mechanical bits hidden from view under bodywork that is pleasing to the eye (and disguises the true mechanical nature of the conveyance.) In most cases this will involve not only outer body panels, but interior ones as well. The cavity thus formed could be filled (injected) with a plastic foam for structural rigidity and soundproofing. (Like the GM XP 887 concept of 30 years ago...) As far as the interior of the car- we (car buyers) like upholstered seats that remind us of our own, very comfortable, overstuffed living room furniture, with pleasing textures and colors- and a touch of "class," perhaps a hint of wood trim or genuine leather materials, helps. I would think that materials that closely resemble the texture and color of exotic, valuable materials, such as ivory, ebony, jade, or obsidian, would also enhance the experience, even in a basic, "no-frills" model. I think a prototype "concept" vehicle could be made very much "on the cheap," using techniques "borrowed" from American hot-rodders and "kit car" enthusiasts; using components from scrap vehicles, combining parts from different makes, adapting parts to do things they weren't originally designed to do. Chrysler spent an incredibly cheap US$1,700,000,000 to bring the Neon concept car to market- amazingly cheap for a "clean sheet of paper" design, which usually costs US$4,000,000,000 or more. I think using existing "off the shelf" or "junkyard" parts (seats from a Toyota, engines from a Subaru, steering wheel and column from a Mercedes etc.), one could build a prototype "proof of concept" vehicle for under US$50,000 (much cheaper if one is willing to devote all spare time to hunting down cheap parts.) This would be a welded-steel-tube chassis, used engine and transaxle, molded-fiberglass-body "demo." I'd make one last suggestion- since this project is likely to be a very low-volume product, aim for where the money is- at the higher end of the price range. Take the price of the highest-priced luxury SUV, and increase it by a minimum 25%- that should be your target price. Otherwise, the competition from Ford, GM, Mercedes, Fiat, etc., is simply overwhelming."

About me-

I'm 51, and I've been a car enthusiast since my teenage years. I've owned and/or driven a number of "interesting" vehicles over the years, and I appreciate a well-thought-out concept. Since I live in a region where probably 25% of the world's car production is manufactured, my interest isn't unusual, but I think I'm more interesred in the history of the industry than most of my neighbors. I attended Purdue University for 2 years (Electrical Engineering program,) got bored with it, and did other things. My latest project is adjustable eyeglasses. I'm also researching the feasibility of importing "replacement car bodies" for classic Brit and Italian "sports cars-" TRs, MGs, Alfa and Fiat Spyders and the like.
Wm H Lanteigne