THE NASDAQ PAGE by STEVE ZITO

Steve Zito (MS Finance) is a technical analyst who also uses economic and technical analysis to forecast general direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice for investment decision-making. If you have a specific question use Feedback
---Home Page ---INDEX ---Today's Update ---MODEL PORTFOLIO

NASDAQ INDICATORS
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE

Six of nine indicators negative
Tue. April 18, 2000

NASDAQ NOW 3793
CHART INDICATORS
Daily chart: 20-day moving average
Intel at 130
Positive trend
support at 127

Microsoft at 80
Negative trend
resistance 88

Cisco at 69
Negative trend
resistance 69

Oracle at 79
Positive trend
support at 77

MCI WCOM at 41
Negative trend
resistance 42

Dell at 51
Negative trend
resistance 52

Daily Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4110

Weekly Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4071

Monthly Nasdaq COMP
Positive
long-term support 3202

The MACD and stochastics on the Weekly and Monthly charts still show an overbought condition!

******************Commentary*******************
April 18. Intel Corp.(INTC) broke down on March 28 at 145, forecasted March 23. The MACD, RSI and stochastics remain negative, with INTC now 20 points higher than Friday's low, and closing above Daily chart support. Look for severe price weakness after 1stQ earnings announcement. INTC is above historical high P/E of 34, heading into the seasonally weak 2nd quarter. Microsoft(MSFT) declined severely from 115 to 80 since March 24. MSFT is very oversold with stochastics under 10% and an MACD bottom on Friday. MSFT is the only NASDAQ leader which did not rally to its 20-day moving average. MSFT could be up 8 points to resistance in advance of 1stQ earnings report, even while the NASDAQ COMP resumes a downward move. Watch for a pop in "Mister Softee" next month after a late April court date, and data on acceptance of Windows 2000.I added 10 MSFT May 100 calls to the MODEL PORTFOLIO when the NASDAQ COMP broke 3300. The call option doubled today with MSFT up 5. Added it at the lowest price ever.
CISCO(CSCO) at 69 lies on its 20-day moving average. MACD, RSI and stochastics look terrible. Friday, CSCO went straight to 55 as forecasted in my Nasdaq Page April 11. No one sold any CSCO until Friday, when 119,000,000 shares changed hands. Similarly, 119,000,000 shares traded Monday on upside, probably the same fund managers who sold Friday. Oracle Corp.(ORCL) like MSFT, is oversold at 79, just above support at 77. On March 24, ORCL traded at 89, plunged to 65 and rebounded to 88 in a week, hit 63 yesterday.
MCI Worldcom(WCOM) is 41, just below resistance at 42. It is the safest play of the leaders. Dell(DELL) is at 51, up from 35 two months ago.
Friday, the NASDAQ COMP traded down 9.7%. On April 11 I predicted that the Nasdaq COMP would trade within an 11% range of 3650. It hit 3230 at the low yesterday, and rebounded 563 points, up 17% in 2 days. Is the bull starting over? No. It bounced off a monthly moving average. I said traders would come back when they saw at least any rally attempt. They did, and ran the daily stochastics up to higher levels than recorded at the recent high April 4. I measured stochastics at 2 PM at 97.28%/95.81%, highest on the 30-minute chart, an extremely overbought condition.
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