THE NASDAQ PAGE by STEVE ZITO

Steve Zito (MS Finance) is a member of the HTML Writers Guild
using economic and technical analysis to forecast direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice for investment decision-making. If you have a specific question please use the Feedback
---Dow April 25 Page ---INDEX ---Model Portfolio ---INTEL Review

NASDAQ INDICATORS
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE

Seven of 9 indicators are NEGATIVE
Wed. April 26, 2000

NASDAQ NOW 3630
CHART INDICATORS
Daily chart: 20-day moving average
Intel at 121
Negative trend
resistance 125

Microsoft at 68
Negative trend
resistance 81

Cisco at 67
Negative trend
resistance 68

Oracle at 72
Negative trend
resistance 77

MCI WCOM at 41
Neutral trend
resistance 42

Dell at 50
Negative trend
resistance 51

Daily Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 3917

Weekly Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4057

Monthly Nasdaq COMP
Positive
long-term support 3093

The MACD, RSI, stochastics on the Weekly and Monthly charts still show an overbought condition!

******************Commentary*******************
April 26. In 1999 Intel Corp(INTC) couldn't break 85 while the Nasdaq Comp went straight up for 3 months, November into January. That advance was led by Cisco. Then Intel exploded in mid-January from 85 to 145, peaking out one month ago. Widely followed analysts at Merrill Lynch downgraded Intel in November, and killed the stock for 2 months. Merrill Lynch advised not to add to Intel positions with the stock under 80 last November, and clients missed an 80% move to 145. Now brokerage analysts are saying buy Intel, trading at 125 this morning, and calling for 178 by the end of the year. If you want to go broke, listen to the brokerage analysts. If you want to cut MARKET RISK, pay attention to the charts. Intel broke down on March 28, which I had forecasted on March 23, and reiterated in the Nasdaq April 18 Page. Intel is now locked in a trading range from 110 to 130 before a major breakout. These too often-wrong analysts push stocks at brokerages to generate commission revenue on excess transactions, as in more transactions = more profit. If you want the bear facts on Intel, go to my INTEL Capsule Review. On today's Nasdaq Comp charts, the MACD, RSI and stochastics remain negative. Nasdaq Comp is below resistance (20-period exponential moving average) on the 5-m, 15-m, 30-m, 60-minute, daily, and weekly charts. The Comp remains above the 20-month EMA at 3093. If that level is broken, there will be a meltdown. This selloff would present a great opportunity for a wise investor with patience to wait. Intel is heading into a seasonally weak 2nd quarter, and cannot make enough product to meet demand. Lost sales are worse than no sales, when customers get mad and cancel future orders. Microsoft(MSFT) is a basket case. MSFT could not even strengthen in advance of a positive 1stQ earnings report, should be avoided until June on conclusion of remedies in the antitrust case. CISCO(CSCO) MACD, RSI and stochastics are negative. Cisco will be a buy under 50, in any major Nasdaq collapse. Oracle Corp(ORCL), MCI Worldcom(WCOM), and Dell(DELL) are trading in line with moves in Nasdaq Comp. On April 11, I predicted Nasdaq would trade within an 11% range of 3650. It hit 3230 at the low, and rebounded 563 points, or over 17% in 2 days. The index bounced off the 20-month exp. moving average. Last week's rally died after 2 days, April's early rally lasted 3 days, and a March rally went 4 days.
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