Reviewing the Realignment NEW LEAGUES INCREASE EXCITEMENT OF STRETCH DRIVES   NEW YORK, OCTOBER 1, 2002 Six months ago today, the big news in baseball was the surprise realignment of the major leagues.  (Click here for those articles from April 1.) The 15 teams with above-average revenue were assigned to the new Jupiter League, while the other 15 went into the Saturn League.  The idea was to give the small-market Saturn teams a better chance of getting into the playoffs, since they would no longer have to compete against large-market teams for playoff spots. Now that the 2002 regular season is over (click the planet for the complete final standings), we can evaluate how effective this move has been.   DIVISION CHAMPS:  ONLY TWO SURPRISES At first glance, it appears that little has changed.  Of the eight playoff teams, six would have made the playoffs anyway under the old American League/National League alignment. The two exceptions are two division champions, the Montreal Expos of the SL East and the Chicago White Sox of the SL Central.  Under the old system, their places in the playoffs would have been taken by the Minnesota Twins (AL Central) and the San Francisco Giants (NL wild card). So as a result of realignment, one small-market former contraction target (the Twins) was bumped by another (the Expos).  That's not an improvement, especially considering that the Twins were really more deserving this season.  They were the third best team in the Saturn League, finishing 11½ games ahead of the Expos in the overall standings.  Minnesota would have made the playoffs easily if they had not had the geographical bad luck of being the fifth most westerly team in the league, which meant that realignment put them into the SL West, the same division as league powerhouses Oakland and Anaheim. And one big-city team (the Giants) was bumped by another with half the local revenue (the White Sox).  That's not much of an improvement, either.  Chicago's division, the Saturn League Central, had an overall winning percentage of just .423 — worst in baseball.  The White Sox needed only an 81-81 record to claim a division championship.   MORE TEAMS IN CONTENTION Realignment had an effect beyond just the final standings, however.  The new divisions were more evenly matched, and all produced exciting races in September. Let's examine the results by dividing baseball's 30 teams into four groups, based on where they stood at the start of the stretch drive on Labor Day.  The groups are the Paragons and the Profiters, the Penalized and the Pathetic.   PARAGONS These seven teams were in the thick of playoff races in 2002, and that's just where they would have been as members of the American and National Leagues. Standings on Sept. 3, 2002 Planetary Realignment Old Alignment Braves Leading JL East Leading NL East Cardinals Leading JL Central Leading NL Central Astros 4 back in JL Central 4 back in NL Central Diamondbacks Leading JL West Leading NL West Yankees 2 back in JL East Leading AL East A's Leading SL West Leading AL West Angels 3½ back in SL West 3½ back in AL West First, let's look at the former National League teams. The Atlanta Braves had led the Jupiter League East all season until the Yankees passed them on September 21st.  When the Yanks clinched the division a week later, the Braves had to settle for the JL wild card spot.  Had Atlanta still been in the old National League East, the stretch drive would have been much less suspenseful:  they would have clinched their division on September 9th and finished 19 games ahead. The St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros finished first and second in the Jupiter League Central, with the Cards clinching the division on September 20th.  They would have been in the same positions in the National League Central. Likewise, the defending world champion Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of the Jupiter League West in 2002, would have won the National League West under the previous alignment. Now to the former American League teams. The New York Yankees would have had a comfortable lead in their old AL East division, and September would have been a dull month.  However, under the new alignment, September was not dull.  Although the Yankees went 57-26 against the SL (a .687 percentage in interleague games, the best in baseball), they managed only a 46-32 record against their fellow Jupiter League teams.  That .590 percentage against the other big boys, 30 points less than the Braves' percentage, kept the Yanks out of the division lead for most of the season.  As previously noted, they finally took first place from the Braves on September 21st and clinched the division on September 28th. And the Oakland A's and the Anaheim Angels were 1-2 in the Saturn League West, just as they would have been in the American League West.  The race wasn't decided until September 26th, when the A's captured the inaugural Cassini Cup as the team with the best record in the Saturn League.  The second-place Angels won the SL wild card spot, just as they would have won the AL wild card. The secret of Oakland's success was consistently defeating the smaller-market teams.  The green and gold started 55-19 against SL foes and finished with an astounding .716 intraleague winning percentage, easily the best in baseball. At one point during the stretch drive, the A's put together a record 20-game winning streak.  Of those 20 wins, 16 came against opponents from the weaker Saturn League.  (The other four came against pathetic Cleveland.)   PROFITERS Six teams, all from smaller markets, gained the most from realignment.  On Labor Day, they all were within striking distance of the lead in their respective Saturn League divisions.  Five of the six (all except the Pirates) remained in tight races until the final weekend of the season.  Under the old alignment, all six would have out of contention long before September. Standings on Sept. 3, 2002 Planetary Realignment Old Alignment Phillies Leading SL East 9½ back for NL Wild Card Marlins 2 back in SL East 19 back in NL East Expos 3½ back in SL East 20½ back in NL East Reds Tied for SLC lead 10 back in NL Central White Sox Tied for SLC lead 13 back in AL Central Pirates 6½ back in SLC 16½ back in NL Central The Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, and Montreal Expos found themselves in a three-way stretch drive in the Saturn League East.  It wasn't decided until the Expos swept a thrilling three-game weekend series at Olympic Stadium September 27th-29th.  Those Expo wins eliminated the Marlins from the race on Friday and the Phillies on Saturday. The Cincinnati Reds of the Saturn League Central weren't eliminated until they lost in 11 innings on that final Friday in Montreal, thereby giving the Central Division championship to the Chicago White Sox.  Chicago had been in second place most of the season and had been six games back on August 20th.  From that point on, however, the Sox finished the season 23-13. Under the old American/National League alignment, these five teams would have finished 21½, 23, 19, 19, and 13½ games back in their respective divisions.  And they would have finished 15, 16½, 12½, 17½, and 18 games back in the wild card race.  They would have entirely missed out on a stirring September. The sixth profiter, the Pittsburgh Pirates, started the season 12-5 and led the Saturn League Central as late as April 23rd.  But then the tide turned.  The Pirates finished with 72 wins, 36 against each league:  36-34 versus their fellow Saturn League teams, but only 36-55 versus the Jupiter League.  They finished in third place, 8½ games out.   PENALIZED Four of these five teams are from larger markets.  All would have been in a better position in their old leagues.  Nevertheless, under realignment they still had a chance.  On Labor Day, they were all within 7½ games of a wild card spot. Standings on Sept. 3, 2002 Planetary Realignment Old Alignment Twins 3 back for SL Wild Card Leading AL Central Dodgers 5½ back for JL Wild Card Leading for NL Wild Card Giants 7½ back for JL Wild Card 2 back for NL Wild Card Mariners 5 back for JL Wild Card 2½ back for AL Wild Card Red Sox 7½ back for JL Wild Card 5 back for AL Wild Card The Minnesota Twins had a scheduling advantage:  62% of their games were against their colleagues in the weaker Saturn League.  On Labor Day, they had capitalized on their easy schedule to post a 52-23 record against the SL, and that .693 winning percentage was better than any other team.  But Minnesota went only 14-11 against the SL the rest of the way, while division rival Oakland was going 22-6 against the SL. In the Twins' old division, the American League Central, their competition would have been only the White Sox and the Indians.  Their record would have been good enough to clinch the championship of the AL Central early, on September 15th. However, this season the Twins were in the same Saturn League division as the A's and the Angels.  The Twins, third best in the league, had to settle for third place in the division and were out of the playoffs. The other four teams in this "penalized" group were Jupiter League teams hoping for the wild card spot.  Under the old alignment, one of the four, the San Francisco Giants, would have actually gotten a wild card bid as a National League team.  But under realignment, they and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, and Boston Red Sox all finished at least 6½ games back of Atlanta in the wild card race. One highlight of the season came when the Giants' Barry Bonds hit his 33rd home run, the 600th home run of his career.  The milestone happened to come against the Pirates of the Saturn League. Of Bonds' 33 homers to that point, 18 of them had come against the SL (in only 52 games) and 15 against the JL (in 65 games).  That means that Bonds had one HR for every 2.9 games against SL pitching, and only one every 4.3 games against bigger-ticket JL hurlers.   PATHETIC Half a dozen teams from each league were out of contention on Labor Day and would have been out of contention under any alignment. Jupiter League Saturn League New York Mets Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians Tampa Bay Devil Rays Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers   LEAGUE VS LEAGUE As expected, the Jupiter League dominated interleague play, posting a 698-555 record (.557) against the Saturn League.  For some reason, the JL did better before the All-Star break (.576) than after it (.535). Comparing various teams, with interleague records in green: > Against Jupiter League Against Saturn League Best JL team Braves 44-27 .620 Yankees 57-26 .687 2nd best JL Cardinals 46-30 .605 D'Backs 42-20 .677 2nd worst JL Rockies 37-63 .370 Cubs 36-47 .434 Worst JL Orioles 25-46 .352 Rangers 44-54 .449 Best SL team Angels 44-35 .557 A's 58-23 .716 2nd best SL A's 45-36 .556 Angels 55-28 .663 2nd worst SL Royals 25-40 .385 Brewers 22-52 .297 Worst SL Devil Rays 29-60 .326 Tigers 28-68 .292   THE EFFECTS OF THE SCHEDULE Because realignment was announced only hours before the opening game, the teams were locked into their old American League and National League schedules for 2002.  Realignment's full effect won't be felt until next season, when the schedules are rearranged so that each team plays only 45 interleague games. During 2002, a formula was used to estimate Adjusted Wins, the number of games a team would have won if its winning percentages against the JL and SL were applied to the number of JL and SL games it will play under next year's revised schedule.  See the final standings for the details. Taking Adjusted Wins into account, how would this year's pennant races have been affected by a more equitable schedule?  Only two divisions would have had a different outcome.  The Braves, with a stronger record against the JL, would have won the JL East by a game and a half over the Yankees instead of the other way around.  And the Reds, who were .567 against their own league, would have notched seven more wins to capture the SL Central championship over the White Sox, who were .500 against each league. The Padres would have had just one more win.  In April, they complained about still having to play 19 games this season against each of their four old National League West opponents, because all those opponents were now Jupiter League teams and the Padres were left in the Saturn League.  But an easier schedule would not have helped the Padres much.  They were .403 in 119 games against the JL but managed only a little better against the SL, with .419 in 43 games.    SUMMING UP The statistics from the first season of planetary realignment show that money does matter. As a group, the better-financed Jupiter League teams had a .529 winning percentage; Saturn League teams, only .471. Nine JL teams had winning records.  Only four SL teams did. In interleague play, the numbers were even more lopsided.  Eleven JL teams had winning records against the Saturn League.  Only two SL teams (Oakland and Anaheim) had winning records against Jupiter League opponents. Fortunately for baseball, a new labor agreement was reached on August 30.  The revenue sharing and luxury tax provisions of the new contract should help to narrow the gap between the rich teams and the poor — at least a little. The result, we hope, will be even greater parity and more exciting competition in the future.