| Nintendo | May 1999 |
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Next Generation says that 64 out of 120 people represents a "high level of interest" and is overall pretty damn good with respect to previous console announcements. Since they are much more familiar with anticipation surrounding game consoles than I am, I will leave such judgments up to them. It's no surprise that Square is highly desired by gamers, and Enix's inclusion in the top three list further affirms Japan's love of RPGs. While Square development on Dolphin is still unlikely (despite
comments made in an
interview with Shinji Hashimoto), Enix could very well make a Dragon Quest game for Dolphin (they made one or two N64 games, but didn't bring DQVII over, presumably because of the cartridge format). With Square closely tied to Sony, getting Enix on board is probably the best Nintendo can do. Luckily, that's not bad at all. By the way, the uncertainty surrounding third parties' intentions towards Dolphin are similar to those of Playstation 2 when it was first announced. Considering that Nintendo's announcement lacked the visual punch that Sony's unveiling had, there is little to be worried about.
I was hoping that Shigeru Miyamoto would be further along in game development than just storyboards, but with any luck, Nintendo's experience in 3D with Nintendo 64 will enable them to bring out a high quality game within a shorter time frame. With IBM's Gekko CPU and ArtX's graphics chip still being developed, it's encouraging to hear that Nintendo is taking steps to make sure third parties can develop games without hardware development kits, which don't look like they'll be available any time soon. Still, I'd caution against looking forward to Nintendo's planned fall 2000 release. One delay will lead to another, and with N64 sales beginning to pick up (yes, even in Japan), Nintendo won't feel too bad about pushing back Dolphin's release.
This is hardly a major revelation since internet access for the new console was assumed from the beginning. Given that, there's not much to say on this topic. Note that Nintendo still hasn't given firm details on the network aspect of Dolphin's games. They say it's a very high priority, and it will be interesting to see what route they take regarding online gaming.
NEC also manufactures the PowerVR graphics chip for Dreamcast and supplied the "Reality Co-processor" for Nintendo 64. They're not strangers to graphics chip manufacturing. Still, IGN64 says NEC is "working feverishly" on the manufacturing process to meet Nintendo's deadlines. Since Nintendo's deadlines must be very demanding (to ensure the holiday 2000 release), I must again raise my doubts as to whether Dolphin will actually makes its planned 2000 launch. With ArtX and IBM still working on their respective chips, there seems to be a lot of "cutting it close" and little room for possible difficulties.
Just as I predicted, Next Generation took back their story. Of course, some damage has already been done, since those who did not get a chance to read this clarification will still be cursing Nintendo for their stupidity. Hopefully Next Generation will use greater discretion in the future before running a story or misinterpreting other sources. Anyway, this news is good news, and we should expect to see plenty of third-party support for Dolphin.
Nobody believed this story anyway (except Next Generation), so Nintendo's clarification doesn't come as a surprise. Still, one has to wonder what Nintendo of Japan is thinking by keeping development internal "for the time being." Perhaps they're only referring to the lack of available development kits, which George Harrison said (in CNN's chat) should be available in 4 to 5 months. Let's hope so, because this "unique approach" probably won't go well with consumers.
I can say with almost complete certainty that Next Generation's interpretation of this story is utterly wrong. The idea of only having three third-party developers is so ridiculous, it should not even be considered. It's safe to say that Nintendo chose to go with DVD for Dolphin because third parties wanted it. Also, IGN64 had said not too long ago that Nintendo was courting third parties for their new console. AsiaBizTech's article is vague, and I hope Nintendo will come out and explain what they meant. I'm not going to speculate on it because I honestly don't have a clue. I expect Next Generation to take back this story sometime soon. If for whatever reason this story is true, Nintendo is finished. Since it's not true, don't worry about it.
It appears that this survey was conducted either before or immediately following Nintendo's official announcement of their new console. Famitsu doesn't use the name "Dolphin" anywhere, and I suspect that they didn't have an opportunity to run a story on this news when the survey was conducted (Famitsu is a weekly publication). It would have been a major news story, and Nintendo fans or not, it seems unlikely that more than half of those surveyed would have somehow missed hearing about it. In any case, the survey probably is not that far off. Japan loves Playstation, and Nintendo will have a difficult time convincing consumers, retailers, and developers alike that their new machine is worth looking at. The more threatened Nintendo feels, the harder they'll work towards reclaiming market share (and pleasing investors), so low survey numbers have a silver lining too.
It looks as if Dolphin's hardware is not further along than anyone thought. Next Generation maintains the possibility that the demos still may have taken place with hardware that emulated Dolphin's abilities, but I doubt they occurred (I also hear that IGN64 editor-in-chief Matt Casamassina called the demo story a hoax as well). Not being all that knowledgeable about hardware production and a developer's ability to create games without an actual development kit, I'm not sure how bad it is that the hardware has yet to be finished. As far as I'm concerned, that news doesn't sound good for their planned worldwide Dolphin launch in 2000. People tell me, however, that it shouldn't be a problem, that developers can still competently produce a game without finalized hardware. Even so, I hope Nintendo has enough time to mass produce all of these products in sufficient numbers to satiate the gaming public. Right now I foresee large shortages. I only wish Nintendo had put together a more impressive Dolphin unveiling, rather than betraying fear of Sony's Playstation 2 with a hasty announcement and few hardware details.
Apparently, Nintendo's next-generation console is further along in development than anybody thought. This bodes well for their proposed launch in holiday season 2000, though it still requires Nintendo to complete a sizable line-up of software titles in time for the release. Hopefully software development has been going on for longer than anyone thought as well, because with Nintendo's incredibly high standards of quality (particularly with flagship titles like Mario and Zelda), delays are the rule rather than the exception. If "movies running with software" means 1) Nintendo showed some DVD movies on Dolphin and 2) they also showed demos of some kind, then we can be confident that Nintendo's claims of graphical superiority are true (since there were apparently witnesses). Now if they'd only show some stuff to the public...
Quick and cheap development... That is exactly what Nintendo needs to attract third party developers. Linking with Game Boy (or more likely, Game Boy Color) is practically guaranteed. Nintendo will not ignore the possibilities of connecting with the most successful video game system in history. So far so good, but it's this support of Nintendo 64 that has me worried. Every effort expended on creating a Nintendo 64 game detracts from Nintendo's ability to make Dolphin a success. Unless Nintendo wants a shortage of games comparable to the one Nintendo 64 suffered, they would do well to throw all of their support behind the next generation Nintendo. Let's face it: the main appeal of Nintendo systems are Nintendo games. The more Nintendo games, the greater appeal. I hope Nintendo 64 support is very lackluster.
One of the key facets of Nintendo's strategy against Playstation 2 will be IBM's ability to mass-produce 0.18 micron copper chips. While Sony and Toshiba will be stepping into unknown territory when they roll out their new production facility, IBM has been doing it for over a year, and they have consistently been a leader in computer technology (their copper technology is a very good example). I firmly believe that Nintendo has the upper hand in this matter. Assuming Dolphin really does launch in holiday season 2000, I can foresee the potential coup: Sony can't manufacture enough Emotion Engines to satiate potential Playstation 2 consumers who, eager to try out the next generation in video gaming, pick up a Dreamcast or (hopefully) Nintendo 2000 instead. Also extremely significant is Nintendo's decision to allow DVD playback. Nintendo has no consumer electronics division to worry about, so they can safely give Dolphin this ability in a sub $300 gaming machine without fear of putting another branch of the company out of business. Matsushita must not be too concerned either, as they plan to incorporate Dolphin technology into some of their DVD players. I only hope that anything they're planning will not dilute Nintendo's market. Set-top boxes, having a history of disastrous failures, are not the way to go just yet. Even given this announcement, it is still not clear whether or not Playstation 2 will play back DVDs. It's extremely likely, but there's also a chance that Sony executives won't allow it. Videophiles with a keen eye for video quality aside, many won't buy a $200 Sony DVD player if they can buy a $300 (or possibly less) machine that can also play games. Still, considering Playstation's increasingly important role in Sony's profit margin (40% of Sony's profits were attributed to Playstation last year), DVD playback in PS2 can almost be expected.
Utilizing IBM's most advanced technology, "Gekko" should be a sight to behold. Interestingly, the bittage of the new processor is not mentioned. Standard PowerPC processors are 64-bit, I believe, and while a 64-bit processor can match the Emotion Engine's power, 128 bits can be better used as a selling point. Nintendo doesn't need unknowledgable kids comparing their favorite systems' bittage. As for the holiday season 2000 release, I'm extremely dubious. Like I've said before, Nintendo has a history of delays. I'm sure this won't be an exception. Don't expect Dolphin to arrive in the United States until holiday season 2001 (I cannot begin to tell you how much I hope I'm wrong...).
Another massive deal is planned for announcement, this time involving computer giant International Business Machines Corp. (IBM). The $1 billion agreement specifies that IBM will be supplying a custom 400 MHz PowerPC microprocessor for the new Nintendo. The chip will work in tandem with a high-performance graphics chip being developed by SGI offshoot ArtX. The New York Times says a worldwide release of the new console is scheduled for Fall 2000. Details of both announcements will be announced today at an E3 press conference this afternoon in Los Angeles. (The New York Times) In the meantime, Next Generation Online has revealed some preliminary specifications on the new machine. CPU: Custom IBM PowerPC processor running at 400 MHz (compared with Playstation 2's 300 MHz CPU) and utilizing semiconductor process 0.18 micron copper technology. Graphics: Custom chip designed by ArtX, running at 200 MHz (compared with Playstation 2's 150 MHz Graphics Synthesizer) utilizing the 0.18 micron semiconductor manufacturing process and embedded DRAM. System Memeory: DRAM technology with a 3.2 GB/sec memory bandwith. Storage Medium: DVD using Matsushita's technology and employing "enhanced counterfeit protection". More details should be announced later today. Yes, I was wrong about Nintendo keeping quiet about N200X during E3. While the company risks lessening the impact of Nintendo 64's strong showing this year, it looks like Nintendo wants to remind the world that the next generation console race has a strong third contender. The significance of these announcements cannot be overstated. Nintendo does not have the facilities or expertise to manufacture DVDs and DVD drives, and forging a deal with the other consumer electronics giant in Japan ensures that they can make DVD support feasible and economical. It appears that rewritability will not be incorporated into the main storage system, but it still may be featured in a second internal drive or an add-on drive. The news of collaboration with IBM confirms long-standing rumors that IBM would supply a CPU for the next Nintendo. My speculation regarding IBM's use of its recently-researched copper technology seems to be accurate as well, though Next Generation's information has not yet been fully confirmed. Though N200X's CPU runs at a clock speed 33% faster than Playstation 2's, it remains to be seen if it can match the "Emotion Engine"'s massive floating point power. Next Generation says that IBM's CPU will be manufactured using 0.18 micron technology, which raises concerns over notoriously high failure rates that the 0.18 micron process is known for (worst-case scenarios put only 20-25% of chips manufactured as usable). However, this should not be as big a problem for Nintendo/IBM as it is for Sony/Toshiba, who have little experience in microprocessor production. IBM, on the other hand, already has production plants available and decades of cutting-edge experience behind them. Other disturbing news coming out of these announcements indicates that Nintendo will be making a foray into the set-top box market. While set-top boxes have a greater potential for success in Japan, where PCs are not ubiquitous as they are in the United States, I hope that Matsushita will bear the greater burden of releasing such devices. Game machines that have tried to do everything have traditionally failed miserably, and Nintendo should not (at least initially) try to push the new Nintendo as anything but a game machine. Matsushita, with more experience in consumer electronics, would be better equipped to support a box for internet-surfing and other computer functions. N200X will definitely support internet access and eventually expand into other regions, but Nintendo should follow Sony's example and not begin marketing their console as an appliance until it has been established as a game machine. With these announcements, knowledge that Shigeru Miyamoto is working on N200X's controller (March news), and recent revelations regarding development teams that already have Dolphin development kits, it looks like work on the next Nintendo is proceeding very strongly. Also, while actual benchmarks have yet to be released, it looks as if Nintendo's claims of matching and exceeding Playstation 2 are not without basis. However, while Nintendo may be scheduling a fall 2000 launch of the new Nintendo (and it certainly would be a wise move to counteract the release of Playstation 2 early that year), I find it extremely unlikely that they will meet that goal, even in Japan. IGN64 wrote a while back that sources close to Nintendo didn't find it likely that the fall 2000 date was feasible. Nintendo is also widely known for delaying projects, and they will not be making any effort to rush something as important as the next console. Finally, development on games for the console cannot have been ongoing for very long. Given the increased development time needed for next-generation software (particularly for a brand-new system), Nintendo wouldn't have any launch titles ready for a fall 2000 release. With any luck, the system's worldwide release won't be pushed back any further than 2001. Nintendo can't afford such delays. More information should be available later today.
Exactly two weeks after writing about the "stunning change" that Nintendo of America has undergone regarding its love of cuteness, I was certainly disheartened to hear about this deal. While publishing a line of Disney titles is in itself not particularly bad (it certainly will appeal to the younger audience, and Disney characters are widely recognized), the fact that Rare will be spending much of their precious time developing some of these games is horrifying. While Rare's "incomparable ability... to create interactive magic" (as put by Howard Lincoln) will ensure that these games will be of the highest quality, I believe it's safe to say that the vast majority of Nintendo gamers would much rather see the talented second party spending the next couple of years working on the N200X successors to Killer Instinct, Perfect Dark, Banjo-Kazooie, et al and building new franchises than making cutesy Disney software. While I have no doubt that Rare will continue to create the projects they're currently known for, the few Disney games that they'll be devoting their time to are a few too many, diverting precious resources away from more "important" games. I only hope that Rare will hire additional staff and assign a less skilled team to these Disney projects, leaving the core of Rare talent to those games that will attract an older audience. On another note regarding this same story, IGN64 states that one of the Mickey-based games "officially marks the first confirmed title for the system." I'd have to disagree with "officially" as Nintendo's press release does not declare it outright (unless IGN64 spoke to an official spokesperson for the company, which by all indications they did not), but the title that is set for release during the holiday season of 2001 is practically guaranteed to be for Dolphin. The press release lists some of the games we can expect to see, including a "'Mickey Adventure' title" for "home console and Game Boy Color" during holiday season 2001. Notice how they don't specify Nintendo 64 (and yes, they did specify the system for the other titles). I suppose that's about as official as it gets with the traditionally tight-lipped Nintendo. It looks like Mickey will be swimming with the Dolphins in 2001.
Those of you who have read David Sheff's Game Over (and if you have not, you are not a Nintendo fan, and you'd better pick up a copy soon; there is a new edition out this month) know that Howard Lincoln was a vital part of Nintendo's successful growth in the 1980s. As a talented lawyer, he guided Nintendo through a lawsuit from media giant Universal regarding Donkey Kong's similarity to King Kong. Declaring "we're not going to buy the god damn Brooklyn Bridge," he won the case for Nintendo, and has been with the company (and been a good friend of NOA president Minoru Arakawa) ever since. Nintendo of America's track record has been largely successful, from revitalizing the video game industry in 1985 to keeping Nintendo 64 afloat in the U.S. while it flounders in Japan, and much of that success is due in no small part to Mr. Lincoln. Having said that, however, I cannot help but note that Nintendo of America will probably benefit from his lessened influence. With a proclivity towards the younger market, Lincoln was probably (actually, pretty assuredly) responsible in part for the Nintendo 64's being regarded as a child's toy. While Nintendo of America has already taken strides in the right direction towards broadening their target audience, hopefully more executives will be willing to break with the company's long-standing tradition of selling to the young.
Some of this information we have heard or assumed already. Like I said, OPN2000 already covered the Dolphin story a while ago, Nintendo has already made a public statement about N200X's specs exceeding Playstation 2, and it was pretty much understood that Rare, EAD, and Retro Studios had already begun work. I had not heard of NST prior to this story, so I can't comment on it, but since EAD is Nintendo, and Rare and Retro are both very close to Nintendo, it wasn't a stretch to assume that they had started development. The existence of development kits is extremely interesting, since it indicates that the hardware must be finalized to some extent. What's really great news, however, is that Dolphin will be easy to program for. Nintendo 64 managed to scare away developers with not only cartridges, but also a dearth of development tools. Sony has dozens of tools lined up for use with Playstation 2, and it looks like Nintendo will try to make it easy to develop on their console as well. Then there is the chipset of the machine. Those who follow video game news know that Sony started a joint venture company with Toshiba for the sole purpose of producing Playstation 2's CPUs. Besides asserting Sony's seriousness regarding the new Playstation, the move also raised questions about Nintendo's ability to not only match PS2's specs, but to also ship out a comparable chip affordably. Hopefully, ArtX has worked technical and economical miracles with Dolphin's innards. Quite frankly, I have faith in them. After all, these are some of the best computer engineers on the planet. And yes, I will indeed use "Dolphin" to refer to the new Nintendo. Not always, but you can expect to see it along with the usual "N200X", "new console", "next Nintendo", etc. |
