| Datum | Länk | Egen kommentar |
| 1999-04-29 |
Rapporteringen kring y2k: "It's bullshit!" |
Om man får tro Gartner Group rankas Kanada, tillsammans med USA, Storbritannien och Sverige, bland de främsta i fråga om förberedelser inför millenniumskiftet. Den länkade artikeln i Computing Canada refererar till en rapport från ett oberoende analysföretag som i starka ordalag anklagar de kanadensiska företagen att ligga på gränsen till lögner om hur väl förberedda de är.
Honesty may be the best policy, but experts say it's being stretched by organizations in the latest Statistics Canada report on the nation's Year 2000 readiness. "It's bullshit," Jennifer McNeill, president of Calgary-based Cipher Systems Inc. and chair of the Western Canada Y2K User Group, said of predictions by large organizations that they'll be done all mission critical Y2K work by the end of the year. The report, released Tuesday, surveyed more than 10,000 business, health and municipal organizations. A final analysis of the figures will be released soon. "I still have people calling me that haven't started," said McNeill She and others are enraged at the astonishing completion performance being forecast by what StatsCan calls large organizations (those with more than 250 employees.) The survey states only 18 per cent thought their mission critical systems would be ready by the end of last month, but 52 per cent think they'll be ready by July, 67 per cent by the end of August and 92 per cent by the end of October. Virtually all large businesses say their systems will be ready to face the millennium bug by December. "Companies are being unrealistic about their completion dates" in the survey, declared McNeill. "Every project I go into their schedules and milestones are off, some by as much as six to eight months. These are large companies that have missed their milestone dates over and over again. What makes them think they're going to hit them this year?" |
| 1999-04-29 | Y2K kan liknas vid en världsomfattande epidemi | För ett par månader sedan skrev Mitch Radcliffe vid ZD Net en artikel som hånfullt såg ner på de som oroade sig för y2k-problemet. Alla på ZD Net-redaktionen verkar tydligen inte lika naiva och blinda som Mr. Radcliffe. Jesse Berst jämför spridningen av Pesten under medeltiden med det hot som världssamfundet ställs inför genom y2k. |
| 1999-04-29 | "Stocking just one week's supplies. Balderdash! A story from the perspective of experience. (Long)" | För Er som tar y2k på lite mer allvar än de flesta... |
| 1999-04-28 | Japaner ifrågasätter rapportering i Japan | Japan saknar i runda slängar 150 000 programmerare för y2k-arbetet. Färre än 1/3 av de som arbetar med y2k i Japan kan COBOL. Företagen i Japan genomför inga fullständiga tester. All rapportering är frivillig. Det här är från Yahoo News. |
| 1999-04-27 | Singapore oroat över flygsäkerheten i Sydostasien vid årsskiftet |
CNN rapporterar:
SINGAPORE (AP) -- While Singapore is admittedly well prepared to fly into the new millennium, its officials are increasingly worried that little is known about steps other countries in the region are taking to ensure safe flying on Jan. 1. "The lack of information about other countries' readiness ... is one of the main problems facing us," Wong Yew Khai, assistant director of information systems at the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore, said Monday. |
| 1999-04-27 | ComputerWorld ifrågasätter rapporteringen kring y2k | Utomstående och oberoende rapporter säger att de olika branscherna ligger efter i arbetet mot 2000-säkring. Branscherna och företagen själva rapporterar att de följer sin tidplan och att de hinner klart. Vem ska man tro?, frågar sig ComputerWorld. |
| 1999-04-26 | Två av Storbritanniens största finanshus i farozonen, enligt officiell rapport |
Finansmarknadens reaktion på att två av de största finanshusen stängs av FSA (brittiska motsvarigheten till Finansinspektionen)? Inte blir det trevligt i alla fall... Av legala skäl avslöjas inte företagen.
MILLIONS of people with bank accounts, investments and insurance policies risk losing their life savings after a City watchdog warned that two of the biggest firms were not on track to beat the millennium computer bug. Last week the Financial Services Authority (FSA) said the two companies posed a serious risk. Experts fear that if the computer systems are not fixed before December 31, billions of pounds of customers' money could disappear. An FSA spokesman said: "People should not panic but it might make sense not to conduct a big financial transaction just a few days before the millennium. You should keep a complete record of all insurance policies, investments and bank statements." While the FSA said most companies were on track to solve their millennium problems, not a single one has been given the all-clear. The FSA has refused to name the firms involved for legal reasons. But it said they would be shut down if they did not make good progress soon. |
| 1999-04-26 |
År 2000 och världshandeln
Lästips! |
Den här rapporten från U.S. Department of Commerce (April 1999) illustrerar hur komplex den globala handeln är. 2000-problemet kommer tveklöst att ställa till mycket oreda på många sätt. Man behöver inte vara professor för att från rapporten dra slutsatsen att otaliga människor på ett mycket otrevligt sätt kommer att få uppleva hur otroligt beroende vi har blivit av att distributionskedjorna fungerar felfritt. Tydligt framgår att energiförsörjning, internationella telekommunikationer och internationella finansiella transaktioner är allvarligt hotade. Och kanske allra viktigast: Sjöfarten och hamnanläggningar är mycket allvaligt hotade. De ekonomiska konsekvenserna kommer att bli avsevärda, för att uttrycka det milt. Ju mer man gräver, desto mer bekymrad blir man över vad vi alla kommer att få uppleva år 2000.
The international trading system, with its complex web of suppliers, distributors, customers, and transportation links, is supported by a critical infrastructure of products and services. The most important components of the infrastructure are energy production and distribution facilities, transportation modes, communications channels, and financial networks. These sectors are highly computerized and interdependent and are particularly sensitive to dates for the smooth exchange of goods and services. These characteristics render them especially susceptible to Y2K-related problems. Breakdowns in any part of the trade support structure could slow or halt shipments of key imports needed to keep factories working, hospitals functioning, food in continuous supply, and people employed... Shipboard systems can have as many as 100 to 200 embedded microchips that control everything from navigation to refrigeration. In 1998, the U.S. Coast Guard surveyed marine manufacturers and discovered that over 20 percent of the embedded chips tested were not Y2K compliant. Computer programs for engine automation systems that monitor the time between required engine maintenance are a good example of the Y2K problem. If these programs misread "00" as the year 1900 instead of 2000, they may conclude that 100 years have elapsed since the last engine maintenance was performed and respond by shutting down systems to avert engine damage. Port facilities and marine terminals could be vulnerable because of the many systems that are time dependent: fire detection systems, cargo tracking software, process flow controls for oil and chemicals, temperature controls, and alarms. Date sensitive sensors could cause an automatic shutdown response, which could trigger other fail-safe responses downstream. In addition, there is currently no established convention for setting time in microchips when they are manufactured. Chips manufactured in Asia may be running at Universal Coordinated Time (UCT) plus eight hours, whereas microchips manufactured in the United States may be running at UCT minus five hours. For safety reasons, some ports and offshore operators have announced that they may suspend operations for several hours around midnight on December 31, 1999. Key seaports, canals, and waterways with large shipping volumes represent potential transportation bottlenecks, and the effects of Y2K breakdowns in these commercial hubs could be amplified. |
| 1999-04-25 | CNNfn: Större risk än väntat i inbäddade system |
LONDON, ENGLAND (NB) -- By Steve Gold, Newsbytes. The green light on Year 2000 issues relating to embedded systems may have been given too early by many experts, according to a report just published by BSC Consulting. The London-based IT consultancy firm says that it carried out its survey as part of its ongoing business continuity and risk management service. The survey revealed that the problem of embedded chips could have a serious impact on vital services and buildings, says Patrick Moore, the director of the firm. BSC says that its survey was in-depth, and covered a total of 38,361 systems involving telecommunications, medical equipment, air conditioning, lifts, heating, lighting and other utilities. |
| 1999-04-25 | Stora problem väntar för olje- och läkemedelsbolag |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil and drug companies could face major problems from potential year 2000 failures outside the United States, the U.S. government said Friday. Developing nations are most at risk from Y2K problems and U.S. firms that trade with them could feel the affect of possible failures by the first weeks of 2000, White House Year 2000 coordinator John Koskinen said. "We import significant raw materials in the pharmaceutical industry, we obviously import a lot of oil," Koskinen said in a telephone interview from Washington. "If we have any significant interruption in that flow, either because the production facilities are challenged, don't work or the port facilities or the tankers, over time that will create a major problem for us," he said. Y2K failures outside the United States would not hurt the U.S. economy overall [Hur kommer man till den slutsatsen? egen anm.], but they would affect firms reliant on specific countries, the chairman of President Clinton's Council on year 2000 Conversion said. In a report released on Wednesday, Koskinen said the greatest potential for year 2000 computer problems lies outside the United States. He said the U.S. government would start to identify problem states and countries by name as the year progressed. |
| 1999-04-25 | "Det är domedagsprofeternas fel!" | Läs och förundras. "Shoot the messenger..." När ska journalisterna göra sin hemläxa? Var tog deras yrkesstolthet vägen? Var är ifrågasättandena? Undersökande journalistik? Pyttsan. |
| 1999-04-25 | Allt är som vanligt: "Vi jobbar på det" |
Den 13 april förhördes Donna Tanoue, ordförande i Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), av Representanthusets finansutskott med anledning av 2000-problemen. I en lång harang av de floskler som vi nu vant oss vid i rapporteringen kring 2000-framstegen framkommer egentligen ingenting, förutom att bank- och försäkringssektorn i USA ännu inte är klar med 2000-säkringen och de vet inte när de blir det heller (OM de blir det...).
It is unrealistic, however, to expect that there will not be any problems as a result of the century date change. There are too many unknowns for anyone to reach such a conclusion. For example, factors outside the banking industry, both domestic and international, could pose problems to individual financial institutions. However, media reports predicting a worst-case scenario are not borne out by the results of our on-site examinations, which indicate that the overwhelming majority of institutions remain on-track for being prepared for the century date change... Räcker det verkligen med en "overwhelming majority"? Måste inte ALLA vara klara? |
| 1999-04-21 | Japan och Y2K |
Despite an official's claim that the
country will be Y2K-compliant by
October 1999, all is not well with Japan.
U.S. companies doing business with
Japan have cause to worry; although
some progress has been made, the
country has a long way to go before it's
ready for the Y2K Bug.
Följande påstående håller nog inte Bruce Beach med om: While many fear for the country's power supply, Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies is unconcerned. The agency claims that "systems which directly control electricity supply such as those which control output at power plants do not use date information and problems like blackouts and power shortage will not occur." |
| 1999-04-21 | Försäkringbolag vill friskriva sig från ansvar gentemot flygbolag i Y2K-frågan |
Undrar hur många flygbolag som skickar upp sina flygplan i luften utan en fullständig försäkring?
In a notice to the airlines, DOT warned companies that some aviation insurers wish to write into insurance policies a clause that would exclude liability for all damages related to Y2K problems, and that some carriers already may have had similar exclusions written into their policies. Airlines must carry liability insurance covering all claims resulting from an accident except for exclusions from coverage that DOT has permitted. The department has not approved any Y2K insurance exclusion, the notice said. |
| 1999-04-21 | Vattenförsörjningen allvarligt hotad |
Sunday Times:
WATER companies are failing to prepare adequately for the millennium bug and this could lead to millions of customers across the country facing water shortages over the new year period. |
| 1999-04-21 | FN varnar för matbrist! |
Ett utdrag ur rapporten:
FAO has warned that the whole of the food chain - from seed supplies through to distribution networks and market information systems - is vulnerable to the Y2K problem: "Even small farmers who till their fields with ox-drawn ploughs probably rely on supplies produced in high-tech factories and transported thousands of kilometres over computer-controlled transportation networks." On the production side, this means that basic inputs like seeds and fertilizers could be threatened - as well as supplies of irrigation water and electricity. Transportation is the weakest link in the food chain Computer malfunctions are also likely to cause severe problems once crops are harvested in the processing, marketing and distribution systems that are crucial to food security at national and household levels. Most experts pinpoint transportation as the weakest link in the food chain. |
| 1999-04-21 | Dyster prognos för Venezuela - en av världens största oljeproducenter |
Its oil-based economy suffering from decline in petroleum prices, this country of 23 million expects serious Y2K-related failures. Government planners have given up on trying to fix many computer systems and intend to have 15,000 engineers at the ready on Jan. 1, 2000 - along with National Guard and army - to resolve problems as they arise and keep order, says Alejandro Bermudez, deputy national Y2K coordinator. Most private companies also way behind schedule, having completed about 10 percent-20 percent of work on Year 2000 problems, Bermudez says. |
| 1999-04-21 | AT & T varnar: Världens telekommunikationer hotade!!! |
AT&T är ett av världens ledande telekomföretag. Bolaget menar att många länder ligger så långt efter i sitt arbete mot 2000-säkring att de inte kommer att hinna klart till 1 januari 2000. Därmed är telekommunikationerna hotade "worldwide". Jag bara frågar: Vad händer med finansbranschen OM telekommunikationerna inte fungerar som de ska eller till och med slutar att fungera?!
AT&T officials said that while most large U.S. phone companies are well prepared, there is growing evidence that many smaller phone companies and a number of regions around the world run a “high risk” for problems. “Internationally, it appears that the readiness has worsened,” said A. John Pasqua, an AT&T vice president in charge of the company’s year-2000 program. “There has been a shift of some of these countries from medium to high risk.” How other countries are prepared could directly affect the U.S. because the global telecommunications system relies on the interconnection of the networks of many countries. Calls are handed off from one company to another, often without callers realizing it. Any disruption in any of those links could cause problems, say officials... |
| 1999-04-21 | Bruce Beach svarar | Läsvärt! |
| 1999-04-20 | Rädsla för Y2K ett av skälen till att Nasdaq-börsen sjönk mer än 5% igår |
CNNfn:
We are seeing the after-effect of a very enthusiastic market at the outset of the year. Some might call it irrationally bullish and what we're seeing now is the effects of moving closer to the Y2K issue -- when we get to see the reality vs. speculation -- and the fact that there had been a series of disappointments throughout the tech sector. |
| 1999-04-20 | Ryssland och Y2K | "Russia…January, 2000. It's 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit in Moscow, and some parts of the country no longer have electricity or heat. In some areas, people have abandoned their homes. Some have started fires in the streets to keep warm. Business is paralyzed by massive computer billing and payroll problems. Most banks are closed, and will not say why. As expected, Russia's early warning network against nuclear attack went black on New Years Day. No missiles fired accidentally as some had feared, but the security systems at several missile sites have failed. And in Vladivostok, there are unconfirmed reports that the cooling system aboard a deactivated nuclear submarine has malfunctioned, creating the threat of a reactor meltdown. Even though the Kremlin was expecting problems, it's hard pressed to contain the chaos." |
| 1999-04-19 |
Latinamerika sent ute Gartner Group utesluter inte bankpanik |
Den som tror att bankpanik i Syd- och/eller Mellanamerika INTE kommer att sprida sig till omvärlden misstar sig å det grövsta. Hotet är verkligt. Tyvärr.
With a handful of exceptions led by Mexico and Chile, Latin American governments were late in grasping the severity of the "millennium bug." They now realize they lack the time, money, and programmers to forestall potentially crippling public-sector failures when 2000 arrives. "Basically everybody's in the same boat. They're only focusing on critical systems and contingency plans," said Rafael Hernandez, an information specialist with the World Bank. Last year, when many say the Latin governments should have been investing heavily in Y2K fixes, the Asian financial crisis hit their economies hard. Now they are short of cash. Media coverage of the Y2K bug has been scarce in the region, and many presidents, including Colombia's Andres Pastrana and Argentina's Carlos Menem, haven't even mentioned it publicly. "I don't want to be an alarmist, but we do want to prepare the people for reasonable precautions. There could be a run on banks," said Jim Cassell, research director for the information technology analysts GartnerGroup who has worked extensively in the region. Gartner analysts predict half of all Latin American companies and state agencies will see at least one critical failure - from power outages to air transport interruptions - in Argentina, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Jamaica, Panama, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. Even worse off are Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Uruguay, they say. Social unrest and paralyzed commerce are tangible fears. In this part of the world, "the public doesn't protest with phone calls and letters - it riots and destabilizes the government," said Ian Hugo, deputy director of Britain's industry-backed Taskforce2000. |
| 1999-04-19 | Försäkringsbolagen drar sig undan |
Toronto -- Some of Canada's insurance companies have begun altering policies to limit
coverage for damage caused by the millennium bug, industry experts warn.
"They're sending out letters with renewals that say there's no intention to cover year-2000 issues," said Art Despard, senior vice-president at Aon Reed Stenhouse, Canada's largest insurance broker. "They're taking off things that I really don't think should be taken off." As a result, hundreds of Canadian companies have already switched insurers because of a growing list of so-called date-recognition exclusions on property and liability coverage, he added. |
| 1999-04-19 | Pinsamt! |
Den brittiska regeringen startade upp ett y2k-center förra året som framhöll 15 företag som var/är(?) 2000-medvetna.
Men nu framkommer det att dessa företag är så långt ifrån 2000-säkrade att de mycket lätt skulle kunna bli
stämda för deras brist på framsteg. Det här är från Sunday Times.
Action 2000 is now warning the Bug Park companies that it is one thing to know and recognise there is a problem, quite another to act on it. Indeed! |
| 1999-04-18 | Debatten om Bruce Beach uppsats om den sekundära klockan i inbäddade system är i full gång! |
För några dagar sedan länkade jag en uppsats skriven av programmeraren Bruce Beach där denne hävdar att risken i de inbäddade systemen är betydligt större än vad som tidigare officiellt hävdats. Här är ett debattforum, vars två första inlägg tillhör programmerarna Paul Davies och Ed Yourdon. Intressant dialog!
En reflektion efter att ha läst igenom de flesta inläggen: De som argumenterar är uppenbarligen mycket kompetenta och vet bra mycket mer om hur ett inbäddat mikrochip fungerar än 99.9% av befolkningen. Bara det faktum att de är oense är kanske en varningssignal. Det här är personer som BORDE VETA hur de inbäddade systemen är uppbyggda och hur de fungerar. Varför är de i så fall oense? |
| 1999-04-18 | "2000-problemen varar 30 månader" |
Gartner Group tydliggör sin prognos för 2000-effekterna:
The script for Y2K is all wrong. Instead of Y2K failures occurring at midnight on Dec. 31, they will be spread over a 30-month period that will begin in July. So says the Gartner Group, a leading computer industry consulting firm based in Connecticut. This is revisionist stuff, since practically all Y2K scenarios to date have focused on the potential for serious computer failures at midnight on Dec. 31. But Gartner maintains that only 10 percent of Y2K failures will occur within two weeks of Jan. 1. In an interview, Dale Vecchio, a research director in Gartner Group's Y2K practice in Stamford, Conn., said his firm has been eyeing a multi-month Y2K impact since the middle of last year. But Gartner analysts have been frustrated that the public debate about Y2K has continued to focus on the Jan. 1 millennium date change, he said. "People haven't quite gotten it," Vecchio said. "They have been too focused on the single time boundary and not enough on what they may have to deal with before the time boundary occurs." Why should Y2K start in 1999 and stretch into 2001? In a recent speech in San Diego, Lou Marcoccio, another research director of Gartner's Y2K practice, said the causes will be forecasting software that looks six months into the future, the beginning of new fiscal years for many corporations and some "date-related anomalies in software code." The number of Y2K failures will increase further in October as forecasting software that looks three months ahead runs up against the Jan. 1, 2000, date and still more companies begin new fiscal years, Marcoccio said. In Gartner's view, 25 percent of Y2K computer failures will occur in 1999, 55 percent will occur in 2000 and 15 percent will occur in 2001. The other 5 percent occurred before 1999. While computer system failures will be spread throughout the 30-month period, the failures of devices containing embedded computer chips -- such as factory process control units or building temperature control systems -- will peak at midnight on Dec. 31, Gartner said. The research firm also predicted that 10 percent of all failures will last three days or longer. While Gartner's extended Y2K impact scenario is at odds with most discussions of Y2K impact, the company's leadership role in raising awareness of Y2K practically guarantees that its findings will not be ignored. |
| 1999-04-17 | Dags att få slut på skitsnacket! |
När man dagligen går igenom nyhetsskörden av y2k-relaterade nyheter (och den är inte liten!) stöter man ofta på vissa standardfraser, missuppfattningar, myter eller klichéer om 2000-problemet som för bort diskussionen från det som den borde handla om. Mycket av detta är rent skitsnack! Det är hög tid att ta ner denna okunniga journalism på marken.
"Planes will not fall from the sky". Självfallet kommer de inte det. De flesta "feature stories" om y2k i USA inleder ofta med frågan: "Will planes fall from the sky?" Och den ofta välrenommérade programmeraren/projektledaren på det stora företaget får möjlighet att lugnande stirra in i kameran och säga: "Nej, flygplanen kommer inte att störta." Har någon någonsin på allvar hävdat att flygplanen kommer att störta? Jag tvivlar. Däremot kan man verkligen undra om särskilt många flygbolag vågar ta risken att skicka upp sina plan i luften med den osäkerhet och det kaos som lär råda på marken i flygplatsernas flygledningscentraler. "Ditt kylskåp, din frys, din mikrovågsugn och din videobandspelare kommer sluta att fungera". Även om denna fråga kan tyckas vara viktig för enskilda individer är frågan helt ovidkommande när man ser till helheten. Om man tror att 2000-problemet huvudsakligen handlar om detta har man, rent ut sagt, inte fattat ett skit! Att ens diskutera detta i sammanhanget lilla problem är ett hån mot de programmerare och konsulter som sliter dygnet runt med att försöka undvika att samhällets viktigaste funktioner kollapsar 1 januari 2000. När risken för total samhällskollaps är undanröjd kan man börja diskutera hushållsredskap. Inte förr! Det finns fler sådana exempel. Läs krönikan och nicka igenkännande... Det här är en mycket bra krönika!!! |
| 1999-04-17 | Bob Bennett varnar igen |
Senatorn Bob Bennett, som leder Senatens Y2K-kommitté, varnar återigen för underskattning av 2000-problemen. Kostnaderna rinner iväg. Nu uppskattas ENBART REPARATIONERNA inför årsskiftet nå ofattbara 1,5 BILJONER DOLLAR globalt. Sedan tillkommer kostnader för panikåtgärder, nödlösningar och andra motåtgärder vid faktiska problem. För att inte tala om alla rättegångskostnader och skadestånd...
Dealing with the glitch will cost an estimated $1.5 trillion worldwide. The commentary said the healthcare industry "is one of the worst prepared for Y2K and carries the greatest potential for harm" if heart defibrillators, respirators and other critical devices fail. Also lagging are the oil industry, education, agriculture, food processing, construction and, in general, small and medium businesses, Bennett said. The nation's telecommunications system "is one of the most Y2K-vulnerable systems," the article said. While 95 percent of phone systems will be fixed in time, "there is no industrywide effort to test data networks, cellular and satellite communications systems or the nation's 1,400 regional telecom carriers." |
| 1999-04-17 | Det går inte att lita på rapporter om framsteg |
Ni som följer denna nyhetssida känner säkert igen namnet David Eddy. Han är krönikör på Westergaards site. I höstas var han mycket skeptisk till hela 2000-problematiken och argumenterade då för att det mest var hype och överdrivna farhågor. Strax före årsskiftet, tror jag det var, ändrade han uppfattning. Nu är han mycket kritisk till rapporteringen i 2000-frågan och uppriktigt orolig inför millenniumskiftet. Hans senaste krönika behandlar rapporteringen från företag och myndigheter. Det går inte att verifiera företagens och myndigheternas rapporterade framsteg.
I'm getting increasingly distressed to see more and more reports from companies and governments alike stating that their Y2K efforts are making good progress, based on their claim -- and it's only a claim -- that 65 percent of their mission-critical systems are done and 90 percent or more will be done by July 1999. They also seem to have forgotten their penchant for missing deadlines. For the life of me, I cannot determine if these reports are conscious lies, intentional positive propaganda to hide reality, or just plain bureaucratic stupidity. Take your pick. Personally, I vote for bureaucratic stupidity. I find fault with such seemingly rosy reports on multiple fronts. First, nowhere is there provided ANY background or supporting evidence as to what they really mean. What is the meaning of "done"? Done with remediation? Completely tested and successfully back in production? Nowhere is there any discussion of "mission critical." I've seen statements saying a state's lottery system is ok while work on the welfare systems remains to be done. The mere fact that a state would publicly, and proudly, announce that they've allowed such a misprioritization of effort and resources to happen is appalling. Claims of progress by percentage completed is just nonsense. This is the classic game of learning how to lie publicly. When you need to tell a lie, tell a BIG one. By doing so you then trap your audience into participating. Who's the bigger fool? Me for telling the lie or you for believing it? In either case, face is saved and we both walk away comfortable in the success of our mutual charade. Unfortunately, this all too human habit is going to hurt us big time with Y2K efforts. The cold, hard facts about measuring Y2K progress by percentages is that you can't add systems up like boxes of candy in the local 7-11 store. One system may be 10 million lines of code (LoC), while another system may be 50,000 LoC, or worse yet a series of spreadsheets, which simply cannot be counted in LoC at all. Although it's somewhat logical to conclude that the 10 million LoC will be more expensive to repair than the 50,000 LoC, this is not necessarily so. Perhaps the 10 million LoC can be replaced with a standard package. Perhaps the 50,000 LoC system is in a particularly opaque language like APL (A Programming Language), which is virtually impossible for anyone other than the original author to decipher, but is crucial for some mysterious financial portfolio risk-analysis calculations. And we haven't even gotten into the very real probability that the data these two systems produce can be codependent. In the real world, it's very common for System A to feed System B and B to feed back into A. What happens with tracking Y2K progress by percentages is that the various functional lines of business in the organization claim they have X number of systems. These systems -- regardless of size, complexity, cost to repair, or true significance to the viability of the organization as a whole -- are then simply summed up. Marketing has 10 systems; R&D has 5 systems; manufacturing has 15 systems, and so on. These numbers are then kept in spreadsheets and the all-important percentages are reported and monitored. It enables managers to delude themselves that they're monitoring the situation to three decimal points. That may work fine for tracking market-share numbers on potato chips, but it doesn't work at all for software systems. |
| 1999-04-17 | GAO: "Fortfarande betydande risker med energiförsörjningen inför årsskiftet" |
GAO kan i dessa sammanhang nästan jämställas med Statskontoret. Det är det organ som övervakar de amerikanska myndigheternas framsteg mot 2000-säkring. Den senaste rapporten är starkt kritisk mot att det går för långsamt på många håll. Från början skulle alla vara klara med kodreparationer och uppgradering av system till 31 december 1998. Denna deadline flyttades sedan fram till 31 mars eftersom INGEN av de amerikanska myndigheterna då lyckats hålla den ursprungliga deadlinen. Nu visade det sig att inte heller 31 mars höll. Nästa deadline sätts nu till 30 juni. Man undrar om NÅGON hinner klart till 31 december 1999? CNN rapporterar:
The nation's electric power utilities have completed only 44 percent of Year 2000-related preparedness and testing, giving rise to concerns about the possibility of widespread power failures as the new year approaches, according to a government report. The General Accounting Office (GAO) also reported that 46 of the participating organizations said they don't expect to be Y2K ready by the industry's June target date. Furthermore, 16 percent of those organizations said they don't expect to be Y2K-compliant until the fourth quarter of 1999... "While the electric power industry has reported that it has made substantial progress in making its equipment and systems ready to continue operations in the year 2000, significant risks remain," the report said. Because power utilities are dependent on embedded computer control systems -- that is, chips that are built into a computer's architecture and can't be replaced with different chips - the industry is particularly susceptible to Y2K-related failures. "All phases of operations in the electric power industry, from generation to distribution, use control systems and equipment that are subject to Year 2000 failures," the GAO report said. "The industry's analysis of its embedded systems has shown that the Year 2000 problem places the nation's electric power systems at risk."... Vad är det för undermedicin som den svenska energisektorn använt sig av eftersom de tycks ligga bättre till än den amerikanska. Generellt sett började de amerikanska kraftbolagen åtgärda sina system tidigare än de svenska och de har också spenderat mer pengar på 2000-omställningen än de svenska. Varför är situationen värre i USA än i Sverige när det borde vara tvärtom? Eller är det så att situationen i Sverige inte är så ljus som hittills hävdats AV DE SVENSKA FÖRETAGEN SJÄLVA? |
| 1999-04-16 | 81% av återförsäljarnas mjukvara är inte år 2000-kompatibel! |
Det här är från Computerworld. Enligt Gartner Group är 81% av all mjukvara som levereras från återförsäljare inte år 2000-kompatibel. "Bump in the road"? Skulle inte tro det...
With 263 days to go until the year 2000 ball drops in Times Square, an astounding 81% of vendor software applications still aren't millennium-ready, according to a Gartner Group Inc. report released late last month. Furthermore, testing shows that 6% of vendor software that shipped following year 2000 patches isn't completely compliant. The 81% noncompliance rate for commercial software packages is better than the 88% figure tallied six months ago, but progress is "not happening fast enough," said Lou Marcoccio, year 2000 research director at the Stamford, Conn.-based research firm. . . . Of the so-called year 2000-ready packaged applications examined by Cap Gemini America's application renovation center in Tarrytown, N.Y., 10% to 15% still contain an average of four to five millennium bugs per program, said Noah Ross, who runs the center. Cap Gemini reviews the year 2000-readiness of homegrown and packaged software for corporate clients... |
| 1999-04-13 | Y2K och marknaden II |
Här är en krönika från The Philadelphia Inquirer. Skribenten heter Miriam Hill.
Harold Evensky, a financial planner in Coral Gables, Fla., and author of Y2K and Your Money, suggests that people assess their risk tolerance. People who have weathered previous downturns with little fear have no reason to do anything differently now. But people who think a decline in stock prices of 20 percent or more would trigger them to sell in a panic should temporarily reduce exposure to stocks, he said. Worriers may want to shift 20 percent of their stock portfolio into Treasury securities. They should pick a date to return to stocks to avoid staying out of the market unnecessarily long. By making a relatively small shift, fearful investors can maintain calm at relatively small cost, Evensky said. "I am not suggesting that you bet the market will go down because of Y2K," he said. "What I am strongly recommending is that you consider now how you would react to the increased negative publicity and increased volatility that are likely to occur. It is far better to make changes in your portfolio now than to make changes in panic later." Jag har personligen svårt att se att nedgången stannar på "bara" 20 procent... |
| 1999-04-13 | Y2K och marknaden I | Här är en krönika från Westergaards site. En anställd på en investmentbank i New York skriver anonymt om varför det är läge att börja gå kort i marknaden och om olika strategier. |
| 1999-04-13 |
Det här dokumentet visar allvaret i situationen
Läs! |
Det här är ett av de viktigaste dokumenten som har författats om år 2000-problemet. Det rör inbäddade system. Det är sannolikt inte felaktig programkod som i slutändan kommer att sänka företagen (och därmed världens börser...), utan inbäddade system. Det här är skrämmande läsning.
Problemet är den SEKUNDÄRA klockan inne i chipet. I en TV-intervju med ingenjörer i en kemisk fabrik fick författaren till dokumentet höra att så många som 25 PROCENT av alla mikrochips kommer att falera när de SEKUNDÄRA klockorna går över från 99 till 00 den 1 januari 2000. Det här betyder, om han inte har helt fel, att de typiska tester som media så glatt rapporterar om då stora samhällsviktiga funktioner ställt fram den EXTERNA klockan till 1 januari 2000, är helt intetsägande. Det spelar nämligen ingen roll om man ställer fram den EXTERNA klockan. Detta har ingen effekt på den SEKUNDÄRA klockan. Det är av stor vikt att denna fråga reds ut ordentligt. Skulle det visa sig att författaren har rätt försämrar det utsikterna väsentligt inför år 2000. I så fall kan vi titta i stjärnorna efter att el- och vattenförsörjning kommer att fungera år 2000. Och det kommer inte vara lätt att få igång dessa funktioner igen när de väl har slutat att fungera. ALLA mikrochips MÅSTE TESTAS, enligt författaren. Det är en helt omöjlig uppgift med den ynkligt begränsade tid som finns kvar fram till år 2000. En annan intressant uppgift som framkommer i dokumentet är att de ledande företrädare för myndigheter och företag i andra länder som envist hävdat att just deras system inte kommer att påverkas därför att deras system 1) inte visar ett datum, 2) inte hanterar tid, eller 3) inte har ett tidsproblem, har FEL, FEL, FEL! Det finns till exempel de som hävdar att Ryssland och Japan inte påverkas av y2k-problemen eftersom de inte använder samma kalender som de flesta andra länder gör. Men detta är ett utslag av att de inte förstår vad problemet med inbäddade mikrochips handlar om. De förstår nämligen inte att det som de refererar till rör den EXTERNA klockan. Men det är den SEKUNDÄRA klockan i chipen som är den viktiga. Och den går inte att testa enbart genom att ställa fram datumet. Om Du som läser detta är 2000-expert och kan verifiera eller förkasta det som framkommer i det länkade dokumentet vore jag mycket tacksam om Du hörde av dig till mig. |
| 1999-04-12 | "Världen börjar äntligen inse att den har problem" |
USA ligger långt före alla andra. USA kommer ändå få problem. Y2K-problemet är globalt. Många länder har bara helt nyligen börjat inse att 2000-problemet kan orsaka enorm skada.
In short, the world is waking up to the frightening realization that many of its electronic technologies could, and probably will, fail in just eight months. Although it has dominated the news in the United States for nearly a year, the so-called Y2K bug is only now being realized in many developing nations. "The Y2K problem requires much more attention than it has, so far, received. The good news is that over the last 12 months . . . a lot of good efforts have taken shape," concluded Carlos Braga of the World Bank. "The bad news is that time is running out, and in many cases countries have just started to address the problem." The United States is well ahead of the rest of the world in correcting the computer problem. The federal government alone is spending at least $6 billion to repair and check its critical systems, nearly 20 percent of its entire budget for information technology. But other nations are just beginning to address the issue and only recently have appointed committees and individuals to work on Y2K remediation. "Some countries have gotten started later than others. But I think there is still time to address these problems," said Bruce W. McConnell, director of the Washington-based International Y2K Cooperation Center. Professional computer programmers are less optimistic. "If you aren't already working on this problem, it's too late," said computer systems expert Ed Yourdon, author of the best-selling book "Year 2000 Time Bomb." "Y2K is a global issue," said Ahmad Kamal, Pakistan ambassador to the UN and chairman of the United Nations Working Group on Informatics. "Only if we sustain a vision that goes beyond national and regional issues to a recognition of our global interdependence will we succeed." |
| 1999-04-12 | Dagens Industri: Varannan svensk spår 2000-problem |
Enligt en undersökning genomförd av Demoskop framkommer att hälften av svenskarna tror att myndigheter och kommuner kommer att få stora problem vid årsskiftet. Och ändå tror bara 7% att de som privatpersoner kommer att drabbas! Var är logiken i det resonemanget?
Svenska folket räknar med att myndigheterna kommer att få problem vid tusenårsskiftet. Däremot tror få att problemen kommer att drabba dem själva. Enligt en färsk Demoskopundersökning tror 48 procent att myndigheterna får stora eller ganska stora problem i samband med millennieskiftet. När siffrorna bryts ned framgår att oron är lika stor bland de offentliganställda, som borde känna till förberedelsearbetet hos myndigheterna bäst, som hos resten av befolkningen. Datorproblem
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| 1999-04-12 | NERC genomförde "riggat" test i helgen |
Den amerikanska energimyndigheten genomförde ett landsomfattande y2k-test i helgen. Jag är inte den som är emot tester, tvärtom. Men när testerna riggats så att de knappast kan gå fel, vad är det då för mening med att hålla tester? NERC har stora problem med trovärdigheten, enligt min mening.
The nation's power companies have Y2K problems and they admit they are purposely keeping the facts from the public and from the government. A Y2K drill will be conducted by the nation's power suppliers tomorrow, which some claim is an attempt to portray that all is well when it is not. Electric power officials say that is not true, and they deny the claim that they are purposefully refusing to report Y2K problems. A recent memo from NERC to the nation's power suppliers was provided to WorldNetDaily by a concerned source. A call to an electric company worker confirmed that the document was real and that there may be reason for concern. "It seems clear to me that there is a direct effort to cover up the problems in this industry. The public is not being told the truth, and there is an official plan to deceive them even more," he stated on condition of anonymity. "They are cooking the books to look much better than they are. This test on April 9 is nothing more than a public relations stunt," he charged. The memo was also verified as genuine by Gene Gorzelnik of NERC public affairs. That memo tells power companies to withhold information about Y2K problems from the public and from the Department of Energy. "All identified exceptions will be held in strict confidence and will not be reported to DOE or the public. The exceptions will be reviewed by NERC Y2K project staff for reasonableness and reliability impact on operations into the Year 2000," the memo said in part. |
| 1999-04-09 | Washington Post: "We may have a real apocalypse on our hands - The Year 2000 Problem" |
Washington Post noterar att det finns en rad amerikanska siter som behandlar 2000-frågan seriöst. Problemet är just att de behandlar frågan som om USA inte har några grannländer eller handelspartners. Y2K-problemet är globalt. Även om USA lyckas lösa sina problem inom landets gränser, kommer ändå landet att drabbas hårt av störningar utomlands.
The Y2K obstacle doesn't seem as insurmountable as it did a year ago. But there is one nagging concern: Many of these sites are focused on America's readiness, not on potential global pandemonium, which could include world finances and energy resources. |
| 1999-04-09 | Sydkoreas handelsflotta obrukbar år 2000? |
Världshandeln är beroende av sjöfarten. Sydkorea, som är extremt beroende av export, har en sjöfartsindustri som ligger långt efter i 2000-arbetet. Korea Herald rapporterar:
Marine transportation and traffic signal systems are the two least prepared industrial sectors for the year 2000 computer glitch, the Ministry of Information and Communication said yesterday. According to a recent ministry report, the passenger ship safety area showed a progress rate of 23.3 percent, much lower than the 76.3-percent average for the 12 core sectors as of the end of February. |
| 1999-04-09 | En stor anledning till varför global recession eller depression är oundviklig: Piratkopierad mjukvara i Asien |
WASHINGTON - Fixing computer programs infected with the Year 2000 computer bug is a vexing problem. Fixing computer programs illegally copied by pirates is like trying to read hieroglyphics without the Rosetta stone. Now pirated software is exacerbating Y2K problems in much of the world, where many governments got a late start and are now running out of time. Software includes thousands, even millions, of lines of coded information. To save space, programmers for most of the last 40 years used just two digits for the year. That leaves date-sensitive software to assume "00" is the year 1900. The source code is necessary to track down those double-ought dates for repairs. "China will solve some, but not many, of its problems. Power failures and other disruptions are likely," said Lawrence Gershwin, a CIA information technology specialist with the National Intelligence Office. "Over 90 percent of the software used in China is pirated. That could make it very difficult to approach Y2K vendors for repairs." Eller som Edward Yardeni säger: "Asia is toast." |
| 1999-04-09 | Stor brist på IT-folk |
Hit hard by an acute shortage of skilled technical personnel in the United States, major IT companies and consulting and service firms are turning overseas for technical talent. In fact, the use of offshore resources has increased substantially as IT managers struggle to complete and test year 2000 software renovations. This involves relying on overseas programming talent from countries such as India, Israel, the Philippines, Singapore and, more recently, Mexico. Software factories in these countries offer a large pool of technical workers and in a lot of cases can provide services that are much less expensive than U.S. alternatives, said some integrators and consulting firms. "There is a tremendous shortage of system development people, and we just cannot grow organically in that area," said Gabriel Rozman, director of strategic ventures and acquisitions for professional service and consulting company Ernst & Young LLP, New York. "We don't have enough people to do systems development right now in the United States." |
| 1999-04-09 | Vad testning är och vad det inte är | IBM borde veta. Testning är INTE lika med att ställa fram datum i olika applikationer och se vad som händer. Testning är INTE att få skriftlig "försäkran" från underleverantörer att de är 2000-säkrade. Testning måste inte bara innefatta reparerad mjuk- och hårdvara, utan också innefatta samkörning med HELA distributionskedjan. |
| 1999-04-08 | Gurun Karl Feilder: "Attityden förändras när den hemska sanningen uppdagas" |
Mer Computer Weekly:
The interview rumbled on with the normal questions, mostly focused on how mainland Europe was doing in their Y2K preparations. "Not well on the whole, and very late" is my stock answer, "with the Germans still struggling to believe that this is really happening." It's fascinating to see how journalists from the non-IT media change their questioning during the course of an interview. I must admit that CNN's young journalist got so panicked that she asked the first question I have ever failed to answer from an interviewer. "You know that Greenwich Mean Time is the centre of time (which, coming from a French lady, was quite a surprising inaccuracy), well the digital satellites are controlled by time, and, well, will they work?" Interviewers normally start out with a cocky attitude: "This story is a waste of time but someone has to cover it," they think. However, as we progress they seem to emulate that 747 leaving Singapore. The sun sets on their rosy misconception of how it is all a huge hype, and then awareness dawns on them from a fresh angle. They see the light, and most improve the accuracy of their reports accordingly. |
| 1999-04-08 | Inget nyårsfirande för Australiens premiärminister | Australiens premiärminster har tydligen insett allvaret med 2000-frågan och meddelar att han kommer att befinna sig på kontoret under nyårsnatten mot år 2000 ifall han skulle behövas. När ska medvetenheten nå det svenska Regeringskansliet? |
| 1999-04-08 | Tony Blair: "Time has very nearly run out for the firms that are behind" |
Oavsett vilket land man undersöker har 35-50% av de små och medelstora företagen inte gjort ett dyft eller alldeles för lite åt 2000-problemen. Dessa företag står för huvuddelen av ett lands sysselsättning. De levererar produkter och tjänster åt större företag. Förnekelse att y2k-problemen drabbar just deras företag är utbredd. Alla dessa företag och dess underleverantörer ligger i riskzonen för mycket allvarliga störningar år 2000. Här är ytterligare en artikel från Computer Weekly.
It is official: the UK's small- and medium-sized firms are in trouble. Unless they take some radical action quickly, nearly half will not solve their year 2000 problems before the end of the year. They risk interruption of production, the loss of sales, lawsuits from dissatisfied customers, and perhaps, the loss of their businesses. More importantly, these companies, small though they are, are at the heart of a nationwide supply chain. They produce goods and services that are critical to the UK's largest businesses. If they fail, supplies to big businesses will inevitably be interrupted and the reverberations will be felt throughout the economy. Action 2000's latest "state of the nation" survey paints a bleak picture. For the first time, largely as a result of campaigning by Computer Weekly, Action 2000 has released detailed figures which show just exactly how far small- and medium-sized companies have progressed. They show there is little room for complacency. "Let's be clear," said Gwynneth Flower, head of the date bug watchdog, speaking last week. "We are talking about the risk of severe disruption or worse." Warning Tony Blair took the unusual step of adding his own warning: "Time has very nearly run out for the firms that are behind. With under 10 months to go, they have two clear choices: use the time to beat the bug or risk being beaten by it." Lack of awareness is not the issue. Regular stories in the national newspapers, combined with Action 2000's £10m advertising campaign and the publicity surrounding the Government's Bug Buster programme, have ensured that eight out of 10 firms see the bug as a serious problem. But, the research reveals, few companies seem to understand the Y2K bug and its business implications. Alarmingly, two out of five smaller firms that think they have cracked the problem have, on closer questioning, not even got past the first stages of tackling the bug... The very first step in any year 2000 programme is completing an inventory of computer equipment. Yet Action 2000's survey shows that among firms employing fewer than 250 people, two out of every five have yet to complete one. Testing Fewer than half have finished testing their IT systems. And only a fraction of companies have thought about the legal and insurance issues of the millennium bug... Companies are clearly aware of the importance of their own supply chains. Two out of three believe their firm would be seriously affected if essential supplies are disrupted. And a third recognise it would be difficult to find alternative suppliers quickly if the supply chain is disrupted. Yet, only a quarter have contingency plans to deal with this eventuality. One in three companies have yet to assess what action their suppliers are taking on the millennium bug. And only a third are asking about their suppliers' suppliers. A similar picture emerges when it comes to embedded systems. Three-quarters of companies are assessing embedded systems as part of their year 2000 plans and two-fifths have fixed potential problems in their equipment. But 40% of companies have not analysed whether they need to look at their embedded systems... |
| 1999-04-08 | Det kan räcka att 0.6% av alla inbäddade mikrochips är defekta för att 40% av alla produktionsprocesser stängs ner |
Det finns många uppskattningar gjorda på hur stor andel av alla inbäddade mikrochips som ej är 2000-säkra. De varierar mellan 0.01% till 6%. Computer Weekly redogör för vad som kan hända om 0.6% av alla mikroprocessorer som finns inbäddade i olika maskiner och apparater inte fungerar som de ska år 2000.
It is becoming clear that the main risk of chaos on 1 January 2000 is going to come from embedded chips rather than mainframe or desktop hardware or applications. Because they are extremely cheap and very useful, chips have been included in most appliances and technologies over the past two decades. They are in most electronic machines and are part of almost all industrial processes, from videos and fax machines to missiles, air traffic control and security systems... The failure to spot and correct systems with embedded chips could be disastrous. It could also be trivial. It might lead to data loss, initiate an incorrect action, or start a function at the wrong time. At its worst, a system might be disabled yet appear to be working fine... A chip's date reliance can be detected in several ways, says Dave Walton, director of AMI Consultancy. "There may be a display of the current date, or the system may generate dated printouts. It may carry out functions on specific times or dates, or it may store information for averaging purposes," he says. Walton was recently involved with checking a manufacturing plant that had 2,700 devices spread over 30 production lines. "We found 17 non-compliant devices affecting 12 production lines. So only 0.6% of the overall number of devices could have affected 40% of the production lines. We didn't think that they would all fail catastrophically but some could easily shut part of the line down, or even cause damage where, say, a robot arm could lose co-ordination with a hydraulic press." ... A common problem is that the systems have no documentation and/or the suppliers are no longer in business. There is also a danger that you cannot believe what the supplier tells you, even if it is said in good faith. Walton says, "Up to a point you can rely on the manufacturer's information, but sometimes you should supplement the information from the equipment suppliers by doing some testing and validation, and conducting audits on equipment that is claimed to be compliant." But he adds that it is far too time-consuming and costly to test every piece of equipment... Even if you scrupulously list and check all your equipment, consult all suppliers and manufacturers, check and test all systems and replace any necessary chips or components, you cannot ever be 100% certain that your system is not going to throw up an unexpected problem, or that one of the firms you do business with is not going to encounter problems that will impact on you... |
| 1999-04-08 | Småföretagare får svårt | Enligt The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), vilket väl ungefär motsvarar Företagarnas Riksorganisation i Sverige, finns det 4,75 miljoner småföretag i USA. NFIB säger att 750 000 av dessa småföretag (företag med mindre än 200 anställda) riskerar att stängas ner eller åtminstone allvarligt skadas av år 2000-problem. I Sverige sysselsätter det privata näringslivet 2,3 miljoner människor (enligt FR). 1,5 miljoner av dessa människor arbetar i företag som sysselsätter mindre än 200 anställda. Om man använder motsvarade relationer för USA:s situation på Sverige betyder det att drygt 225 000 svenskar som arbetar i småföretag direkt riskerar arbetslöshet. Och fortfarande finns det ekonomer som hävdar att y2k inte påverkar ekonomin... |
| 1999-04-07 | Ny lag i USA underlättar för småföretagen i 2000-arbetet | Bill Clinton undertecknade i förrgår en lag som gör det lättare för småföretag att beviljas lån i samband med 2000-arbetet. När får vi en sådan lag i Sverige? Agera Persson!!! |
| 1999-04-07 | Öststater illa ute | Det är inte alls säkert att Öststaternas kärnkraftverk klarar omställningen till år 2000. Frågan är om det ens är möjligt. Dessa länders regeringar kämpar i uppförsbacke med brist på medvetenhet och brist på resurser. |
| 1999-04-07 | 2000-generaler besvikna på statsministerns svar |
Jag tror inte att Göran Persson har förstått allvaret. Man löser inte 2000-problemen genom att säkra enbart sina egna system, dvs Sveriges i detta fall. Det krävs omfattande samarbete på internationell nivå. Det här är från Computer Sweden:
En besvikelse. Så säger 2000-generalerna som skrev till Göran Persson om statsministerns svar. Men brevet har ändå öppnat för en dialog med regeringskansliet.
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| 1999-04-07 | De svenska myndigheterna sena |
Den 1 juni skulle alla myndigheter vara klara med sin 2000-omställning. Testade och klara. But, guess what!?! Surprise! Surprise! Det kommer de inte att vara. Enligt Statskontoret kommer minst 15 myndigheter inte hinna klart till detta datum. Tveksamt alltså om alla myndigheter klarar omställningen. Om det är så svårt och tar sådan tid i "ordentliga Sverige"... Föreställ er hur det ser ut i tyska, franska, spanska och italienska myndigheter... För att inte tala om jättebyråkratin EU i Bryssel. Europa kommer att vara ett enda stort kaos år 2000.
Statskontorets senaste lägesrapport över 54 myndigheters år 2000-anpassningar visar att 15 myndigheter inte hinner bli klara till den 1 juni. Det är nästan dubbelt så många sedan i december. Arbetet med år 2000-anpassningen i de 54 viktiga myndigheter går långsammare än beräknat. Bara 52 procent av systemen är 2000-säkrade när det är nio månader kvar till millennieskiftet. Det konstaterar Statskontoret i sin lägesrapport. Antalet myndigheter som inte blir klara med år 2000-arbetet till Statskontorets fastställda tidpunkt den 1 juni 1999 ökar. Sedan december har antalet fördubblats och Statskontoret bedömer risken som stor att fler myndigheter kommer att bli försenade. - Jag är inte nöjd med utvecklingen och jag förväntar mig kraftfulla åtgärder från de myndigheter som halkat efter i arbetet. Läget kräver intensifierade åtgärder från departement och myndigheter för att hamna på rätt spår igen. Myndigheterna måste ta det här problemen på fullaste allvar, säger demokrati- och förvaltningsminister Britta Lejon i en kommentar till rapporten. Tester tar tid En tredjedel av de 54 myndigheterna uppger att arbetet med åtgärder och test har försenats. Av 18 myndigheter beräknar 11 att ändå blir klara med arbetet till den 1 juni. Sex myndigheter har inte genomfört riskanalyser varken för verksamheten eller anpassningsarbetet och 21 myndigheter har inte påbörjat arbetet med särskild verksamhetsplanering inför millennieskiftet. Leverantörer sinkar Det som försenar arbetet för myndigheterna är bland annat att leveranserna av 2000-säkra produkter drar ut på tiden. 14 myndigheter är inte nöjda med leverantörernas svar om produkters år 2000-status. 40 myndigheter uppger att 2000-säkringen förutsätter att de byter utrustning för sammanlagt 312 miljoner kronor. Resursuppskattningarna har ökat från 1,3 miljarder kronor (37 myndigheter i december) till 1,6 miljarder kronor för 44 myndigheter i mars. De myndigheter som inte blir klara till den 1 juni ska rapportera detta till regeringen. Rapporterna ska ligga till grund för att bedöma konsekvenserna av eventuella störningar i verksamheterna, och för om särskilda åtgärder, som till exempel hårdare omprioriteringar behövs. |
| 1999-04-07 | Y2K svårt för journalister |
Journalister har svårt att rapportera om 2000-framstegen. Och jag förstår dem. Det är svårt att objektivt mäta eller verifiera vad företag och myndigheter själva hävdar om sina 2000-projekt. I artikeln håller John Koskinen, Clintons "y2k-tsar" med om detta, men han har ingen direkt lösning på detta problem.
``We are drowning in a sea of conflicting information," Jeff Gralnick, executive vice president of CNN Financial News and one of the panelists, said. ``It's an incredibly difficult story to cover. And everything is in conflict." He lamented the lack of a unified government stance, saying, ``We need a common reporting language and a common reporting document, a common understandable 'report card' that we can measure you against." Koskinen acknowledged that in many areas there was a lack of information, especially on the preparedness of businesses and governments in other countries. ``The problem with a lack of information is the less you know the more you naturally assume the worst," he said. |
| 1999-04-04 | Shutdown or Meltdown: Nuclear Power Plants and the Year 2000 Problem |
Här är en uppsats av Michael P. Harden, VD i Century
Technology
Services, Inc. Han har bl a vittnat inför kongressen om kärnkraftsäkerheten och övergången till år 2000. Så här säger han om Y2K:
"The Y2K problem is far more severe than most people realize. Things we have come to expect as routine will likely fail due to Y2K disruptions, yet government and business leaders assure us not to worry. Each of us will be impacted by this problem, so believing what the government and media tells us is not a wise move." |
| 1999-04-04 | Brasilianskt kraftverk klarade inte 2000-test | När ingenjörerna på vattenkraftverket Xingo i Brasilien förra året satte fram klockan till 1 januari 2000 började 12000 varningslampor på kontrollpanelen att blinka. Kraftverket försörjer 30% av nordöstra Brasilien med elektricitet. |
| 1999-04-04 | Qantas Airlines: Inga problem med flygsäkerheten, bara flygplatserna fungerar... | Det stora flygbolaget Qantas hävdar i princip att det kommer att vara säkert att flyga, men inte att starta och landa. En inställd avgång... och en till... och en till... |
| 1999-04-04 | Ingen kedja är starkare än dess svagaste länk - det finns många svaga länkar år 2000 |
Den här artikeln kräver egentligen ingen ytterligare kommentar. Den sammanfattar problemet tydligt. Synd bara att det ska ta så förbaskat lång tid för folk att förstå omfattningen på 2000-problemet.
LONDON (Reuters) - Chief executives of the world's biggest manufacturing companies are probably sharing the same recurring nightmare. It starts in the boardroom with congratulations, back-slapping and talk of perception and dynamic action. The problem with the millennium computer bug was spotted early. Millions of dollars were spent fixing it. All the company's computer systems are now ``millennium compliant," to use the jargon, so it will be business as usual after clocks strike midnight on Dec. 31, 1999. Don't bank on it, because this is where the chief executives' dreams turn into nightmares. It makes no difference if your computer systems work perfectly as 2000 dawns because, as the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. A company is immune to the bug only if its weakest supplier is clean too. A big car manufacturer can have more than 4,000 suppliers, with a huge pyramid of ever-smaller organizations producing down the supply chain. But if the company that makes the five cent metal holder to display the manufacturer's badge on the front fails to deliver, the whole process may be torpedoed. ``You can test in-house till the cows come home," Jonathan Crab, analyst with technology consultancy Spikes Cavell, said. ``Anything external is by its nature uncontrollable. This is potentially a nightmare especially where you are dealing with suppliers that are way outside the sophistication of your company," Crab said. The danger has been made worse by the introduction in recent years of the so-called Just-In-Time system of supply. Its Japanese inventors thought a neat way of cutting costs would be to end the costly practice of building up huge stocks of parts at assembly plants making products like cars, refrigerators, computers, or pharmaceuticals. This was not only costly in terms of money tied up. It also took up huge amounts of space in expensive warehouses and cost fortunes in wages. Why not save large amounts of money and bolster the bottom line at the expense of suppliers? They would deliver, hourly or daily, just the amount of product the organization required, only at the time when the production process needed it. This meant that all stocks were effectively moved out of warehouses and on to suppliers' trucks. Warehouses were sold and staff fired. The bottom line swelled. ``JUST-IN-TIME" IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT COMPUTERS The crucial enabler for all of this is the computer. This provides a sophisticated electronic ordering system for parts and management of a Byzantine supply organization. But the whole process is now threatened by the millennium bug. The so-called Y2K problem stems from a once common practice of computer programmers using only two digits for the year in dates, like ``97" for ``1997". This has the potential, when dates change in 2000, to confuse computers and microchips embedded in machines, causing them to produce flawed data or even crash. If a small company in an elaborate supply chain is crippled by the computer bug, the whole process will shudder to a halt. The chain is even more vulnerable if it is run from top to bottom by computers that automatically decide how many components should be delivered at a precise time and location. ``The Achilles heel for big manufacturers is their heavy reliance on small-to-medium-sized businesses," analyst Ann Coffou of the Giga Information Group in Norwell, Mass., said. Coffou said companies would find it hard to dump Just-In-Time because warehouse space will have been sold, so manufacturers will have to make quick decisions about alternate supplies for items deemed crucial. ``In pharmaceuticals this can be impossible. Often there's only one supplier," she said. Tom Oleson, research director at IDC technology consultancy in Framingham, Mass., said where possible manufacturers should make sure they always have alternative sources. ``If you have to use a single source supplier you should seek an absolute assurance that they can cope." Oleson said the automotive industry had gigantic supply chains. General Motors, for example, has about 4,500 suppliers for its pickup trucks and commercial vehicles. FAX, PHONE, PAPER MIGHT BE CORPORATE LIFEBOAT He said companies should also have disaster recovery plans and might have to reinstate obsolescent working methods. ``You need to have alternative means of getting the job done. Faxes, paper, and things like that." Tom Gormley of Forrester Research agrees. ``They will have to build up stocks again and get ready to start using paper and faxing rather than electronic communications. You can't be running production based on IT (the Just-In-Time system) if there's a chance of suppliers not being Y2K compliant." Chris Webster, head of Year 2000 services at Cap Gemini, reckons that up to 40 percent of U.S. manufacturers and 20 percent of Europeans will plan some kind of stockpiling. But because of the difficulty deciding which components to stockpile, he said, this promises to clog up the system with vast amounts of inventory. Coffou believes some companies might decide discretion is the better part of valor and shut down for the millennium holiday. ``Large machinery manufacturers in the U.S. and chemical makers typically close for the last two weeks of the year. They might usually do some retooling and maintenance but they all might be in better shape if they shut down anyway," she said. |
| 1999-04-04 | Microsoft misslyckas igen |
Microsoft har STORA problem att finna lösningar till 2000-problemen med NT-plattformen.
According to industry analysts Gartner Group, Microsoft "quietly" posted a set of Year 2000 hot fixes for TSE in January this year, but has now admitted these are inadequate. Neil MacDonald, NT analyst at Gartner Group, commented: "Microsoft has now just as quietly acknowledged that those hot fixes were incomplete, that further Year 2000 related problems have been discovered and that reapplication of a complete set of fixes will be required." He said that as a result, many companies mistakenly believe that their deployments of TSE are compliant. MacDonald also added that since Microsoft has given no estimate on when these complete fixes will be available, it may not be until the second quarter, leaving limited time for users to complete their Y2K projects and testing... |
| 1999-04-04 | Microsoft publicerar Feilders "Five Layers" | PC-problemet är inte trivialt. Det löser inte sig självt. Du kan inte lösa dina 2000-problem genom att köpa en ny dator. |
| 1999-04-04 | CNN: Y2K mycket allvarligt problem för Kina |
Kina startade alldeles för sent med sin 2000-omställning. Kina kommer att drabbas mycket hårt. Därmed också världsekonomin. Och vi svenskar.
Paul Brand, one of a growing number of Western entrepreneurs helping China with Y2K, is discouraged by the country's progress to date. "They approach it with vim and vigor, but it's just that they're starting too late," he says. Another obstacle: cost. Brand offers software to fix the problem, but most Chinese companies and government offices cannot afford the overseas consulting fees. City of 10 million-plus spent under $500,000 In China's capital, a city of more than 10 million people, the Beijing government has invested less than $500,000 in a special office to tackle the problem, a tiny fraction of what major cities in the United States pay. The Beijing Y2K office offers free advice to any who call, but the man in charge is worried. "We need to guarantee our water, electricity, coal, gas, traffic systems, medical services, sanitation, fire and safety. These big public services are a big problem. We've done a lot of work, but I'm still extremely nervous," Chen Xinxiang says. ...hundreds of millions of dollars are needed to complete reprogramming in key industries, reports the Beijing Morning Post. Officials doubt that important government ministries -- as well as many smaller agencies that receive little support -- can meet an October deadline for fixing their systems. |
| 1999-04-04 | Kostnadsuppskattningarna stiger hela tiden - steg 60% på en månad i Australien |
Australian business is now expected to spend $19 billion fixing the year
2000 computer problem, prompting an intense debate over the
implications for economic growth.
The $19 billion estimate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is 60 per cent higher than its estimate released just a month ago and almost double the most recent private-sector projections of $10 billion. But economists are split between those who think Y2K spending will underpin strong economic growth until the end of the year and those who say the impact on GDP will be minimal. "In the US, the effect may be larger because US companies supply the new software and hardware to other countries to deal with Y2K compliance." Dr Ed Yardeni, chief economist and global investment strategist at Deutsche Bank, said most Y2K spending in the US was coming out of existing IT budgets and was not adding to new spending. Software and programming expenses were intermediate services not included in final GDP figures. "In my opinion, the main costs of Y2K are probably ahead of us in the form of lost output caused by Y2K disruptions," he said. Dr Yardeni said that just-in-case inventory building could boost real GDP later this year but that might be offset if consumers became more anxious about Y2K at the same time and reduced their spending on housing and durables. |
| 1999-04-04 | Programmerare i brev till Gary North: "Många tror att de är säkrade, men det är de inte" | Just because data problems don't appear in the data RIGHT AWAY, DOES NOT mean that they aren't hidden somewhere in the data. Although my situation wasn't directly Y2K related, it does prove that data, once thought to be reliable, can change over time with little or no warning. Now, keep in mind, it took a MINIMUM of three things for me to even come close to fixing my broken data: 1) I needed a phone to talk to tech support AND to get onto the Internet. 2) I needed a reliable computer on THEIR end so that they could investigate my data when I sent it to them. 3) I needed POWER to make everything go. Remember, I had been assuming (ASS-U-ME) that everything was OK. I ASS-U-ME'D wrong! When you think of this, think: Japanese banks. Think of Wall Street. Most of all, think of the Power Grid. Think of End of Month Data for April 1999 going into May. Now, think of the end of 1999. If some businesses are still around by then, they could be in for the ride of their lives. Think about it. |
| 1999-04-04 | Jurist om 2000-problemen | Mark Grossman skriver om vikten av att företagen och myndigheterna gör rätt från början. Det är så många saker som kan gå fel och det räcker att en siffra någonstans är felaktig för att konsekvenserna ska bli ödesdigra. |
| 1999-04-04 | Depression i Taiwan år 2000 |
BNP kommer sjunka 15% i Taiwan under år 2000, säger en talesman för tillverkningsindustrin i landet. Han baserar detta uttalande på att uppskattningsvis minst 33% av företagen i landet kommer att uppleva stora svårigheter med övergången till år 2000. 15% nedgång i ekonomin är ingen recession. Det är en regelrätt depression. Och Taiwan är en viktig handelspartner för de stora industriländerna och många av de taiwanesiska företagen är underleverantörer till de stora multinationella elektronikjättarna. Jag bävar.
Taiwan may face serious economic turmoil caused by the Y2K bug, according to a report from the China Economic News Service. Lee Nien-tsu, a partner of Lee and Li Attorneys-at-Law, stated at a Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association seminar that Taiwan should be prepared to face a possible economic loss of US$3billion dollars. This represents a 15 percent decrease in the gross domestic product and shutdowns of more than 10 percent of the island's enterprises. Lee stated that 33 percent of local firms will be effected by the Y2K bug. Lee based his predictions on a Data Systems Consulting Co., Ltd. survey that indicates that presently 32.9 percent of local companies are still evaluating the problem, 29.5 percent recognize the problem but have not carried out any actions to counteract the bug, and ten percent of local firms are unaware of the Y2K bug. |
| 1999-04-04 | Israels militär har problem med Y2K |
"The Israeli army is a very, very high-tech army, so the
problem is there and we have to deal with it," said Lt. Col.
Dror Margalite. "If we weren't so high-tech, I believe the
problem would be a minor problem."
The Israeli defense forces have been wrestling with the Y2K problem since 1994, and they don't underestimate it. Israeli officers say privately that they are not sure wars can be fought today without the high-tech tools the military has come to depend on. Military experts say that some computer systems could crash as early as this summer, when thousands of lines of computer code must be replaced in airplanes, missiles and tanks to prevent a GPS system breakdown. Such a breakdown could occur as early as mid-August. |
| 1999-04-04 | "Jo Anne-effekten" börjar få verkan från 1 april i flera stater | Den 1 april påbörjar bokslutsåret 1999/2000 i förvaltningarna i flera länder och delstater runt om i världen. I många fall kommer detta inte att få någon som helst effekt. I flera fall kommer det inte att upptäckas förrän efter några dagar eller veckor eller månader. Ju längre tid det tar att upptäcka felen i systemen, desto mer kostsamt. |