The relationship of event to event is not defined by correlation as found in classical statistics or the value of one line corresponding to the value of another line.
If every morning you take a shower, you would have a series of "showering events". The value of each shower may be different, the temperature of the water is too hot or too cold, the water runs too fast or too slow.
Each "showering event" is congruent to each other, however. They are all defined as being a "showering event".
In terms of forecasting mathematics, if you want to forecast the value of a future event, it helps to have a similar event happening during the most recent interval of time.
In terms of macro economics, if you want to forecast the future value of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for next year, it helps to have the GDP for this year.
In terms of the investment markets, if your want to forecast the value of a future Closing Price, it helps to have a Closing Price for today or this week.
In a series of stock prices, Closing Prices are congruent to each other. The Closing Price of yesterday and the Closing Price of today are both defined as the final price of a stock for an interval of time.
According to conclusions conjectured by this writer, if it weren't for the Law of Congruent Events, forecasting of any sort would not be possible.
Update: Mon, Mar 23, '98
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