Getting to Know The Numbers |
The Valuation Ratios table helps you decide whether a stock is
inexpensive or costly relative to alternative investment
opportunities.
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is the single most widely
used measure of a stock's value. That's because the key to stock
ownership is the shareholder's stake in a portion of the company's
profit stream. The next line, beta, measures stock price volatility relative
to the overall stock market. We use the S&P 500 as a proxy for
the market and we automatically define it's Beta as being 1.00. A
higher beta indicates that a stock is more volatile while a lower
beta indicates more stability. A stock with a Beta of 0.90
would, on average, be expected to rise or fall only 90% as much as
the market. So if the market dropped 1.0%, such a stock might rise
or fall .90% On the other hand, a stock with a Beta of 1.10 would,
on average, rise or fall 10% more than the market (i.e., a 1.0%
market move, either way, should spur a 1.1% move for the stock. Price-to-Sales is generally used to evaluate companies that
don't have earnings and don't pay dividends. For these
companies, you may consider that high multiples of sales and high
growth rates suggest optimistic future earnings expectations on the
part of investors. Also, earnings can vary widely from one year to
the next due to temporary issues, such as reserves or gains and
losses on asset divestitures. Sales trends tend to be less volatile.
Hence the Price-to-Sales ratio can be useful in situations where
the P/E is distorted by unusual swings in earnings over the most
recent 12-month period. Price to Book is a theoretical comparison of the vale of the
company's stock to the value of the assets it owns (free and
clear of debt). Classical financial theory suggests that book value
is a proxy for the proceeds that would be realized if the company
was to be liquidated by selling all its assets and paying all its
debt. For some companies, that may, indeed, be valid. But nowadays,
you need to take it with a grain of salt. Assets are valued on the
books at the actual prices the company paid to acquire them, minus
cumulative depreciation/amortization charges. The idea behind these
costs is to gradually reduce the value of the assets to zero over a
period of use in which they presumably approach obsolescence. But
note: the writeoffs are based on specific accounting formulas that
may or may not resemble "real world" progress toward obsolescence.
Also, it's not clear that book value is effective in measuring the
value of service-oriented companies that are less dependent on
traditional brick-and-mortar factories and machinery. Price to tangible book is similar to price to book, except
that we have subtracted the value of intangibles such as goodwill
from book value. It is tempting to assume that intangible assets
are less valuable than tangible assets. We suggest that you avoid
jumping to such a conclusion. Consider a fast food chain such as
McDonald's (MCD). Its tangible book value would include the
collective amounts it spent to construct and equip company-owned
properties. But what about the value of the agreements it holds with
its huge and powerful network of franchisees, the true engine of
MCD's growth? What about the value of the brand name? These are not
the sort of assets that are included in a calculation of tangible
book value. But if you were going to attempt to purchase the entire
company, you would understand that you would have to pay a price
that truly reflects the considerable value of these intangibles.
Indeed, some of the most valuable intangibles a company owns may
not show up, in any sense, on its books. The sort of intangible
assets we described for MCD may never be associated with any number,
absent some accounting event. One example of that would be if you
were to acquire the company. The difference between what you pay,
and the book value of MCD's assets, would appear on your
books as your intangible asset. Given these issues, we
suggest that Price to Book and Price to Tangible Book are best used
in comparison to the Industry. When measuring a company's operating performance, Cash Flow is
an alternative to Net Income. To calculate Net Income, we
subtract all expenses from revenues. That sounds simple, but in
truth, measuring expenses can raise interesting questions. Suppose a
manufacturing firm spends $100 million to build a factory that will
help it create salable products for a period of ten years. Looking
strictly at cash outlays, we would recognize factory construction
expenses of $100 million in Year 1, and zero in each of years 2-10.
This would suggest one unusually poor year for profits, followed by
nine very good ones. Accountants recognize that this isn't
realistic. The preferred practice is to match revenues as closely as
possible to the expenses incurred to generate the Revenues. In our
example, we assume that the $100 million factory generates 10 years
worth of Revenues. So we recognize one-tenth of the $100 million
outlay in each of those 10 years. This one-tenth charge is known as
depreciation. (Amortization is a similar annual charge for a
different sort of one-time expenditure that is matched against more
than one year's worth of sales.) How should an investor assess all of this? The revenue/expense
matching practices of the accountants is a reasonable way to measure
a company's economic success or failure. So you should pay heed to
the traditional Net Income (or Earnings) and Earnings Per share
figures as reported by the companies. But this number does not tell
you how much cash the company generates year in and year out. If
you want to know how much the company can afford to pay in dividends
or use for other investments, you would look to a figure known as
Cash Flow, which is calculated by adding non-cash depreciation and
amortization charges back to Net Income. But Cash Flow alone doesn't necessarily give you the full story.
Even if you'd rather study cash flows than economic performance, you
still need to somehow account for the $100 million our hypothetical
company spent to build the factory. Free cash flow looks at the
cash the company's operations actually generated in a given year,
and subtracts important "non-operating" cash outlays; capital
spending and dividend payments. Accordingly, Free Cash Flow is
the purest measure of a company's capacity to generate cash. When analyzing stocks, you need to examine cash flow and free
cash flow. Cash Flow is a less pure number, but it is less
susceptible to wide year-to-year swings as capital programs
periodically build up and wind down. Examining the Price to Cash
Flow and Price to Free Cash Flow ratios presented here, we confirm
our impression that MCD is more richly valued than the Restaurant
group, but that the industry as a whole may be undervalued. The final line on this table is an especially important one to
check. This item, which shows the percent of shares owned by
institutions, helps you see whether demand on the part of this
influential investor group is more likely to be pent-up or
satiated. Institutions are important segment of the investment
community because of their expertise and size. The Institutional
Ownership table on the Market Guide Performance
Report shows you whether these investors have been buying or
selling the stock.
RATIO COMPARISON
Valuation Ratios
Company
Industry
Sector
S&P
500
P/E Ratio (TTM)
39.55*
34.27
34.88
37.65
P/E High - Last 5
Yrs.
34.48
35.19
41.95
42.70
P/E Low - Last 5
Yrs.
17.54
16.64
16.17
14.50
Beta
0.97
0.95
0.89
1.00
Price to Sales
(TTM)
4.93*
3.48
4.29
5.76
Price to Book
(MRQ)
6.60
5.50
6.88
8.67
Price to Tangible Book
(MRQ)
6.60
5.73
9.64
12.34
Price to Cash Flow
(TTM)
24.61
21.93
23.35
28.13
Price to Free Cash Flow
(TTM)
133.00
31.16
54.59
49.89
% Owned
Institutions
69.77
56.48
52.58
63.94
^ back to top ^