| Stock Investment |
The Investment Process Investing money is putting that money into some form of "security" - a
fancy word for anything that is "secured" by some assets. Stocks, bonds,
mutual funds, certificates of deposit - all of these are types of
securities. As with anything else, there are many different approaches to
investing. Some of these you've probably seen on late-night TV. A
well-dressed, wildly positive (though somewhat whiny) young man sits
lazily waving palm fronds and shakes his head over how incredibly easy it
is to amass vast wealth - in no time at all! Well, hey! That sounds fine!
However, discerning minds will wonder: If it were so easy, wouldn't
everyone who saw the same pitch be rich? Then, too, you always have to
send some money to learn the secrets. So we suggest you take the $25 you'd
spend on the hardcover EZ Secrets to Untold Billions book and the
$500 you would shell out for the EZ Seminar, and invest it yourself -
after you've learned the basics here.
Time Value of Money But let's think about this. How can it be? The value of a dollar
changes dramatically depending on when you can take control of the dollar
and invest it. The critical variable in the exact value of a dollar is
time.
If someone owes you a dollar, do you want him to pay you today or next
year? (Yes! Another trick question! The answer is, "Today.") With
inflation consistently destroying the purchasing power of a dollar, a year
from now a dollar will be worth slightly less than it is today.
"Inflation" is an economic term used to describe the gradual tendency of
prices to rise over time. If inflation is 2% per year, that means that
prices, on average, will rise 2% over the next year, which in turn means
that your dollar can purchase 2 cents less in a year than it can today.
That's right, all you mathematicians out there - with 2% inflation, a
dollar today is worth only 98 cents in a year.
However, if you got the dollar back today, you could invest it. If you
invested it (along with a few of its cousins, we hope) in the stock
market, and your investment returned 10% over the course of the year
(which is somewhat less than the market average has historically
returned), then you'd have $1.10 at the end of the year. So your money
would be growing instead of shrinking, and you'd be staving off the
negative effects of inflation.
The Miracle of Compounding The more money you save and invest today, the more you'll have in the
future. Real wealth, the stuff of dreams, is in fact created almost
magically through the most mundane and commonplace principles: patience,
time, and the power of compounding. To heck with your lousy odds in the
lottery or with someone's "Wealth in Nanoseconds!" pitch.
Look at it another way -- if you were to take a mere $20 a week and put
it into an index
fund, then at the end of 40 years, assuming a modest 12% return, you
would have just over a million bucks. In short, you would basically have
won the lottery -- for $20 a week, or a total of $40,800 out-of-pocket
along the way.
We like those odds.
Real Returns Now, let's say your investments earned 10% last year. How much did you
really make? Well, the last time we checked the taxman wants to grab a
piece of what you earn. One of the most significant factors investors tend
to leave out when assessing their investment returns is the tax
consequence. Even if you have a long-term capital gain that is only taxed
at 20%, a 10% return quickly becomes 8%. And for short-term gains, the tax
bite is even greater. At any rate, the question of importance for you is:
"How much do I end up with at the end of the day?"
Another factor that affects returns, as we mentioned above, is
inflation. So if your investments made 10% after taxes last year and
inflation reduced your principal's buying power by 2%, then you actually
only made a real return of 8%. All you need to do is to take your
annualized after-tax return and subtract the annual rate of inflation. How
can you find out what inflation was? Every quarter the government reports
the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is what most investors use as a
proxy for general inflation at the consumer level. You can find it in your
local newspaper's business section or at the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
Investing Versus Speculating Granted, there is nothing exhilarating about predictability. Sure,
tales of your fifth year beating the performance of the Standard and Poor's 500
Index won't make you the life of the party. However, neither will the
far more common tales about how you lost your savings on some
speculation, and your subsequent adventures in bankruptcy court.
(Actually, that might make for some entertaining party chatter, especially
given our penchant for reveling in the misery of others. But let's try for
the moment to ignore sad musings about human nature.)
What are the odds of winning the lottery jackpot? Well, it depends on
the lottery - they may be 1 in 7 million, or 1 in 18 million, or somewhere
in between. You have a far greater chance of dying from flesh-eating
bacteria - 1 in a million - than you do of winning that jackpot!
You don't need a card dealer, dour strangers, or Wayne Newton
background muzak to gamble. There are plenty of stock market gamblers who
do an admirable job of losing their money on seemingly legitimate
pursuits. At the Motley Fool we think that commodities and options are
just as risky as a Vegas craps game. In fact, we believe investors
"gamble" every time they commit money to something they don't understand.
This, of course, may be true of stocks as well as of commodities and
options. Say you overhear your best friend's dentist's nanny talking about
a company called Huge Fruit at a cocktail party. "This thing is gonna go
through the roof in the next few months," she says in a stage whisper. If
you call your broker the first thing the next morning to place an order
for 100 shares, you've just gambled. Do you know what Huge Fruit does? Are
you familiar with its competition (Heavy Melon)? What were its earnings
last quarter? There are a lot of questions you should ask about a company
before you throw your hard-earned cash at a "hot" stock. There's nothing
too hot about losing your money because you didn't take the time to
understand what you were investing in.
Remember: Every dollar that you speculate with and lose is a dollar
that is not working for you over the long-term to create wealth.
Speculation promises to give you everything you want right now but rarely
delivers; patience almost guarantees those goals down the road.
Planning and Setting Goals Running out of gas, stopping frequently to visit restrooms, and driving
without sleep (this is the last of the travel analogy, we promise) can
ruin your trip. So can saving too
little money, investing erratically, or, as we said in Step One, doing
nothing at all.
You must answer the following questions before you can successfully set
about your savings/investing journey:
Don't worry ... you don't have to do all the math yourself. There are
online interactive
calculators available that can help you figure your future money
needs. The more specific you can be, the more likely you are to set and
achieve reasonable goals.
After you have a rough idea of how much money you'll need and how much
time you have to get there, you can start to think about what investment
vehicles might be right for you and what kind of returns you can
reasonably expect.
Time Is on Your Side Putting your money into cash reserves - U.S. Treasury bills, or more
recently, money market funds - has yielded roughly 4.2% per year during
this century, according to Global Financial Data.
While this may not seem like a lot today, it is important to remember that
for most of this century, inflation was nonexistent, making a 4.2% average
annual return attractive until the 1960s. Though it is interesting that
cash reserves have outperformed bonds this century, if one expands the
time frame back to 1802, cash returns trail the return of bonds, and
during the 1980s and 1990s, cash reserves have consistently trailed bond
returns.
Long-term government bonds have returned around 4.0% per year since
1900; surprisingly, they're not that superior to short-term bonds. The
best decade for bonds in the past century was the 1980s, when bonds
returned 13.81% annually. The worst was the 1950s, when bonds lost -3.75%.
Had you invested $1 in long-term bonds in 1900, you would have about $50
today.
Stocks have also been very good to investors. Overall, stocks have
returned an average of 9.8% per year since 1900 - quite a bit higher than
bonds. Surprisingly, the range of the returns for stocks is not that much
larger than the range for bonds over the same period. According to Global
Financial Data, the worst return in one decade was the 1930s, when stocks
declined 0.17% per year, including dividends. The best decades have been
the 1950s, when stocks increased by 18.23% annually; the 1980s, when
stocks increased by 16.64% annually; and the 1990s, during which stocks
have increased by 17.3% annually. Had you put $1 into stocks in 1900, you
would have over $10,000 today.
Determining Your Investment Style Before you start investing, you should determine your investment style.
There are two major variables in figuring out your investment style - your
risk tolerance and the amount of time you can dedicate to investing.
You need to consider how comfortable you will be seeing your
investment decrease in the near term while you wait for it to increase
over the long term. Although stocks have historically increased in price
over the past two centuries, there have been some pretty bad periods.
Without counting dividends, your equity investments could have lost
almost 80% of their value had you bought stocks at the high in 1929
before the crash. You could have lost 40% had you bought at the high in
1972. Heck, in October of 1987 the Dow decreased 25% - in just one day!
The important thing to remember about stocks, though, is that you don't
lose anything until you sell them. For example, if you didn't panic and
sell your stocks in October of 1987, you did quite nicely as the market
rebounded in subsequent years. That's why, when you're investing in the
stock market, you need to think long-term. Don't invest any money in
stocks that you'll need in the short
term.
Government bonds provide guaranteed returns, and bank savings
accounts are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC). For stock investing, there is no similar guarantee or insurance
that the ride will be smooth or that every investment will make you
money, but if you buy good businesses and hold for the long term, the
odds are in your favor. Just remember that the safest road isn't always
the best one. At the Motley Fool we believe that the biggest risk is not
taking enough risk, meaning not investing enough in stocks.
It should also be said that you can learn to increase your risk
tolerance for investing in stocks. Once you see the kind of returns you
can generate over time, you'll come to realize that it really doesn't
matter if your stock drops or rises over the course of a few hours or
days or weeks or even months. It may be fun to check your stock prices
(and it's so easy on the Internet!) but it doesn't mean much over the
long term.
Time. Another time factor is: When do you need the money? As we will
discuss in Step 8.
Keys to Success, whether you need the money next week or in a
hundred years will dramatically affect what investment vehicle you
decide to use. Although stocks have great long-term returns, the returns
over periods of three years or less can be downright scary. Luckily for
you, as you have now determined your goals and how much money you will
need to get there, you also know how soon you will need the money and
will be able to make the appropriate choices when you are ready to
invest. Active investing is what most people mean when they talk about stock
investing. Whether they do it, their broker does it, or a mutual fund
manager does it, the money is managed "actively." The hardest part about
making the case for passive investing is convincing people that active
investing may not always be all that it is cracked up to be. According to
Lipper Analytical Services, over
the five years ended in June 1998, 90% of "general equity" mutual funds,
meaning garden variety stock funds, underperformed the Standard and Poor's
500 Index - the major benchmark for stock mutual funds.
With 9 out of 10 equity mutual funds failing to beat the market average
over five years, you can understand why some people want an alternative to
"active" management. Many people who just want a return equal to that of a
major stock index use passive investing as a way to do this. The most
famous passive investment strategy is investing in the Standard and Poor's
500 Index, also known as the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000, the
Wilshire 5000, and various international indexes are also used for passive
investment options.
Summary and Next Steps
Don't let yourself get away with fuzzy answers, either. In
the end, investing is a lot of numbers. You need to get used to that, and
quickly. As a matter of fact, it can be quite liberating. You can see
exactly what you need to get to your destination, and can be accountable
to yourself along the way. Ask yourself some more pointed questions:
Risk. How comfortable will you be if you invest in
something in which the price changes every day - sometimes not the way
you want it to change? There are various degrees of risk across the
investment spectrum, from government bonds, which are considered
risk-free as they are guaranteed by the government, to commodities and
options, where you can and often do lose all of your money.
Active and Passive Strategies
The two main methods of investing in stocks are called active and
passive management. No, active investors aren't the ones who exercise and
eat leafy greens while passive investors watch too much TV and eat junk
food. Instead, the distinction between active and passive investing is
whether you (or whoever manages your money) actively choose the companies
in which you invest or whether your investments are determined by some
index created by a third party.
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