Although analyzing a business might seem like a straightforward
activity, there are many flavors of fundamental analysis. Investors often
create oppositions and subcategories in order to better understand their
specific investing philosophy. In the end, most investors come up with an
approach that is a blend of a number of different approaches. Many of the
distinctions are more academic inventions than actual practical
differences. For instance, value and growth have been codified by
economists who study the stock market even though market practitioners do
not find these labels to be quite as useful. In the following
descriptions, we will focus on what most investors mean when they use
these labels, although you always have to be careful to double-check what
someone using them really means.
The person viewed as providing the foundation for modern value
investing is Benjamin Graham, whose 1934 book Security Analysis
(co-written with David Dodd) is still widely used today. Other investors
viewed as serious practitioners of the value approach include Sir John
Templeton and Michael Price. These value investors tend to have very
strict, absolute rules governing how they purchase a company's stock.
These rules are usually based on relationships between the current market
price of the company and certain business fundamentals. Some examples
include:
Total sales at a certain level relative to the company's market
capitalization, or market value
Growth. Growth investing is the idea that you should buy stock
in companies whose potential for growth in sales and earnings is
excellent. Growth investors tend to focus more on the company's value as
an ongoing concern. Many plan to hold these stocks for long periods of
time, although this is not always the case. At a certain point, "growth"
as a label is as dysfunctional as "value," given that very few people want
to buy companies that are not growing. The concept of growth investing
crystallized in the 1940s and the 1950s with the work of T. Rowe Price,
who founded the mutual fund company of the same name, and Phil Fisher, who
wrote one of the most significant investment books ever written, Common
Stocks and Uncommon Profits.
Growth investors look at the underlying quality of the business and the
rate at which it is growing in order to analyze whether to buy it. Excited
by new companies, new industries, and new markets, growth investors
normally buy companies that they believe are capable of increasing sales,
earnings, and other important business metrics by a minimum amount each
year. Growth is often discussed in opposition to value, but sometimes the
lines between the two approaches become quite fuzzy in practice.
Income. Although today common stocks are widely purchased by
people who expect the shares to increase in value, there are still many
people who buy stocks primarily because of the stream of dividends
they generate. Called income investors, these individuals often entirely
forego companies whose shares have the possibility of capital
appreciation for high-yielding dividend-paying companies in
slow-growth industries. These investors focus on companies that pay high
dividends like utilities
and real
estate investment trusts (REITs), although many times they may invest
in companies undergoing significant business problems whose share prices
have sunk so low that the dividend
yield is consequently very high.
GARP. GARP, aside from being the name of the title character to
John Irving's The World According to Garp, is an acronym for growth
at a reasonable price. The world according to GARP investors combines the
value and growth approaches and adds a numerical slant. Practitioners look
for companies with solid growth prospects and current share prices that do
not reflect the intrinsic value of the business, getting a "double play"
as earnings increase and the price/earnings (P/E) ratios at which those
earnings are valued increase as well. Peter Lynch, who may be familiar to
you through his starring role in Fidelity Investments commercials with
Lily Tomlin and Don Rickles, is GARP's most famous practitioner.
One of the most common GARP approaches is to buy stocks when the P/E
ratio is lower than the rate at which earnings per share can grow in the
future. As the company's earnings per share grow, the P/E of the company
will fall if the share price remains constant. Since fast-growing
companies normally can sustain high P/Es, the GARP investor is buying a
company that will be cheap tomorrow if the growth occurs as expected. If
the growth does not come, however, the GARP investor's perceived bargain
can disappear very quickly.
Because GARP presents so many opportunities to focus just on numbers
instead of looking at the business, many GARP approaches, like the nearly
ubiquitous PEG
ratio and Jim O'Shaughnessy's work in What Works on Wall Street
are really hybrids of fundamental analysis and another type of analysis --
quantitative analysis.
Quality. Most investors today use a hybrid of value, growth, and
GARP approaches. These investors are looking for high-quality businesses
selling for "reasonable" prices. Although they do not have any shorthand
rules for what kind of numerical relationships there should be between the
share price and business fundamentals, they do share a similar philosophy
of looking at the company's valuation and at the inherent quality of the
company as measured both quantitatively by concepts like Return
on Equity (ROE) and qualitatively by the competence of management.
Many of them describe themselves as value investors, although they
concentrate much more on the value of the company as an ongoing concern
rather than on liquidation value.
Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway is probably the most famous
practitioner of this approach. He studied under Benjamin Graham at
Columbia Business School but was eventually swayed by his partner, Charlie
Munger, to also pay attention to Phil Fisher's message of growth and
quality.
Arguments Against Fundamental Analysis. Those who do not use
fundamental analysis have two major arguments against it. The first is
that they believe that this type of investing is based on exactly the kind
of information that all major participants in publicly traded markets
already know, so therefore it can provide no real advantage. If you cannot
get a leg up by doing all of this fundamental work understanding the
business, why bother? The second is that much of the fundamental
information is "fuzzy" or "squishy," meaning that it is often up to the
person looking at it to interpret its significance. Although gifted
individuals can succeed, this group reasons, the average person would be
better served by not paying attention to this kind of information.
Quantitative Analysis - Buying the Numbers
Pure quantitative analysts look only at numbers with almost no regard
for the underlying business. The more you find yourself talking about
numbers, the more likely you are to be using a purely quantitative
approach. Although even fundamental analysis requires some numerical
inputs, the primary concern is always the underlying business, focusing on
things like management's expertise, the competitive environment, the
market potential for new products, and the like. Quantitative analysts
view these things as subjective judgments, and instead focus on the
incontrovertible objective data that can be analyzed.
One of the principal minds behind fundamental analysis, Benjamin
Graham, was also one of the original proponents of this trend. While
running the Graham-Newman partnership, Graham exhorted his analysts to
never talk to management when analyzing a company and focus completely on
the numbers, as management could always lead one astray.
In recent years as computers have been used to do a lot of number
crunching, many "quants," as they like to call themselves, have gone
completely native and will only buy and sell companies on a purely
quantitative basis, without regard for the actual business or the current
valuation - a radical departure from fundamental analysis. "Quants" will
often mix in ideas like a stock's relative
strength, a measure of how well the stock has performed relative to
the market as a whole. Many investors believe that if they just find the
right kinds of numbers, they can always find winning investments. D. E.
Shaw is widely viewed as the current King of the Quants, using
sophisticated mathematical algorithms to find minute price discrepancies
in the markets. His partnership sometimes accounts for as much as 50% of
the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day.
Company Size. Some investors purposefully narrow their range of
investments to only companies of a certain size, measured either by market
capitalization or by revenues.
The most common way to do this is to break up companies by market
capitalization and call them micro-caps, small-caps, mid-caps, and
large-caps, with "cap" being short for "capitalization." Different-size
companies have shown different returns over time, with the returns being
higher the smaller the company. Others believe that because a company's
market capitalization is as much a factor of the market's excitement about
the company as it is the size, revenues are a much better way to break up
the company universe. Although there is no set breakdown used by all
investors, most distinctions look something like this:
MICRO - $100 million or less
SMALL - $100 million to
$500 million
MID - $500 million to $5 billion
LARGE -
$5 billion or more
The majority of publicly traded companies fall in the micro or small
categories. Some statisticians believe that the perceived outperformance
of these smaller companies may have more to do with "survivor" bias than
actual superiority, as many of the databases used to do this performance
testing routinely expunged bankrupt companies until pretty recently. Since
smaller companies have higher rates of bankruptcy, excluding this factor
helps "juice" up their historical returns as a result. However, this
factor is still being debated.
Screen-Based Investing. Many quantitative analysts use "screens"
to select their investments, meaning that they use a number of
quantitative criteria and examine only the companies that meet these
criteria. As the use of computers has become widespread, this approach has
increased in popularity because it is easy to do. Screens can look at any
number of factors about a company's business or its stock over many time
periods.
While some investors use screens to generate ideas and then apply
fundamental analysis to assess those specific ideas, others view screens
as "mechanical models" and buy and sell purely based on what comes up on
the screen. These investors claim that using the screen removes emotions
from the investing process. (Those who do not use screens would counter
that using a screen mechanically also removes most of the intelligence
from the process.) One of the proponents of using screens as a starting
point is Eric Ryback, and one of the most famous advocates of screens as a
mechanical system is James O'Shaughnessy.
Momentum. Momentum investors look for companies that are not
just doing well, but that are flying high enough to get nose bleeds.
"Well" is defined as either relative to what investors were expecting or
relative to all public companies as a whole. Momentum companies often
routinely beat analyst estimates for earnings per share or revenues or
have high quarterly and annual earnings and sales growth relative to all
other companies, particularly when the rate of this growth is increasing
every quarter. This kind of growth is viewed as a sign that things are
really, really good for the company. High relative
strength is often a category in momentum screens, as these investors
want to buy stocks that have outperformed all other stocks over the past
few months.
CANSLIM. CANSLIM is a system pioneered by William J. O'Neil that
is a hybrid of quantitative analysis and technical analysis, detailed in
his book How to Make Money in Stocks. According to Investor's
Business Daily, O'Neil's newspaper, the "C'' and ''A'' of the CANSLIM
formula tell investors to look for companies with accelerating Current and
Annual earnings. The ''N'' stands for New, as in new products, new
markets, or new management. ''S'' stands for Small capitalization and big
volume demand. ''L'' tells investors to figure out whether the company is
a Leader or Laggard. ''I'' has them look for Institutional sponsorship,
and ''M'' concentrates on the direction of the Market. O'Neil originally
created Investor's Business Daily to be a tool that investors could
use to practice CANSLIM, although it has become a very widely read
business publication by all types of investors. CANSLIM also includes
components of the next type of analysis - technical analysis.
Arguments Against Quantitative Analysis. Because quantitative
analysis hinges on screens that anyone can use, as computing horsepower
becomes cheaper and cheaper many of the pricing inefficiencies
quantitative analysis finds are wiped out soon after they are discovered.
If a particular screen has generated 40% returns per year and becomes
widely known, and if lots of money flows into the companies that the
screen identifies, the returns will start to suffer.
As "fuzzy" as fundamental analysis might be, there are often times that
knowing even a little about the company you are buying can help a lot. For
instance, if you are using a high-relative-strength screen, you should
always check and see if the companies you find have risen in price because
of a merger or an acquisition. If this is the case, then the price will
probably stay right where it is, even if the "screen" you used to pick
this company has generated high annual returns in the past.
Technical Analysis - Buying the Chart
What would
you do if you truly believed that all information about publicly traded
companies was efficiently distributed and that nobody could get an edge on
anyone else by either understanding the business or analyzing the numbers?
You might consider simply giving up on beating the market's returns by
buying an index fund. Some investors have taken an alternate route,
attempting to create a set of tools that might tell them what other
investors thought about a stock at any given time, particularly looking
for the footprints of large institutional investors that tend to cause the
most extreme price changes. Investors who focus on this kind of
psychological information call themselves technical analysts and believe
that charts can sometimes provide insight into the psychology surrounding
a stock. Although there are plenty of pure chartists, some investors just
use charts to time investments after looking at them from a fundamental or
quantitative perspective.
There is no set of clearly defined approaches to technical analysis,
but there are a number of different tools. The most important indicators
seem to be specific chart formations that show certain price movements at
times when trading volume
is at a certain level. The most common kinds of charts include point and
figure charts, logarithmic charts, and Japanese candlesticks, to name a
few.
Arguments Against Technical Analysis. Technical analysis assumes
that certain chart formations can indicate market psychology about either
an individual stock or the market as a whole at key points. However, most
of the statistical work done by academics to determine whether the chart
patterns are actually predictive has been inconclusive at best, as
detailed in Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Much
of the faith in technical analysis hinges on anecdotal experience, not any
kind of long-term statistical evidence, unlike certain quantitative and
fundamental methodologies that have been shown in many instances to be
pretty predictive. Critics of technical analysis feel that it is basically
as useful as reading tea leaves.
Trading - Doing What Works
As trading commissions
have fallen and more and more people have gained access to instantaneous
data about stock prices, trading has become more and more popular, and
very likely much too popular, somewhat like Madonna or Beanie Babies.
Traders normally use a hodgepodge of fundamental, quantitative, and
technical techniques with a short-term orientation. Trading tends to be a
highly charged experience where one looks to make a few%age points from
each trade. Although widespread, trading is far from a systematized,
philosophical body of knowledge that is easily explained in a few
paragraphs.
Many novice investors, lulled by the apparently easy casino-like gains
possible in trading, tend to lose a lot of money before they realize that
when there are thousands of other traders out there looking for the same
things, it is often those who are fastest, have the most experience, and
own the best equipment that make money - normally not the people just
starting out. All traders emphasize that successful trading requires
careful attention, discipline, and a lot of work, so anyone who thinks
that he can use a Quotrek in between meetings to make a fortune might want
to reconsider.
Arguments Against Trading. Trading is clearly a time-consuming
adventure. Although there are a number of very famous and successful
traders, many individuals ignore the fact that these traders are well
equipped to trade and have all day to do so. Given the time and effort
most successful traders put into their trading, the potential for amateurs
to reap the same rewards with less effort and fewer resources is very low.
With so much money competing in the one-day to one-year investment
time-frame, an individual with a minimal amount of time will probably be
more successful finding businesses to own for the long term and not trying
to engage in high-octane, almost gambling-like behavior.
Summary and Next Steps
At this point you can
probably recite backwards and forwards each element of such alphabet-soup
investing approaches as GARP and CANSLIM. You've gained a general sense of
investing philosophies without fancy acronyms, too. We've run down the
basics on fundamental, quantitative, and technical approaches to picking
stocks. Chances are, like most investors, you'll find elements of several
that suit your investing style. As your education continues, you'll
develop your own investing philosophy that targets your needs and goals
with bull's-eye precision. If you're itching to start putting your
newfound philosophy to practice, then join us in Step 7.
Picking a Broker where we cover the nuts and bolts of finding the best
broker to execute your investing ideas. See you there.
The current value of an
asset on a company's balance sheet according to its accounting
conventions. The shareholders' equity on a company's balance sheet is
the book value for that entire company. Many times when investors refer
to book value, they actually mean book value per share, which is the
shareholder's equity (or book value) divided by the number of shares
outstanding. As the book value is theoretically what a company could be
sold for (liquidation value), this book value number is sometimes used
as a rough guide as to whether or not the shares are undervalued.
Capital Appreciation. One of the two
components of total return, capital appreciation is how much the
underlying value of a security has increased. If you bought a stock at
$10 and it has risen to $13, you have enjoyed a 30% return from the
appreciation of the original capital you invested. Dividend yield is the
other component of total return.
Dividend Yield. A ratio of a company's
annual cash dividends divided by its current stock price expressed in
the form of a%age. To get the expected annual cash dividend payment,
take the next expected quarterly dividend payment and multiply that by
four. For instance, if a $10 stock is expected to pay a 25 cent
quarterly dividend next quarter, you just multiple 25 cents by 4 to get
$1 and then divide this by $10 to get a dividend yield of 10%.
| Dividend Yield = |
| Ann. Div.
Price |
= |
| $0.25 * 4
$10 |
= 0.10 = 10% |
Many newspapers and online quote services will include dividend yield
as one of the variables. If you are uncertain whether the current quoted
dividend yield reflects a recent increase in the dividend a company may
have made, you can call the company and ask them what the dividend per
share they expect to pay next quarter will be.
Earnings Per Share (EPS). Earnings, also known
as net income or net profit, is the money that is left over after a
company pays all of its bills. For many investors, earnings are the most
important factor in analyzing a company. To allow for apples-to-apples
comparisons, those who look at earnings use earnings per share (EPS).
You calculate the earnings per share by dividing the dollar amount of
the earnings a company reports over the past 12 months by the number of
shares it currently has outstanding. Thus, if XYZ Corp. has 1 million
shares outstanding and has earned $1 million in the past 12 months, it
has an EPS of $1.00.
$1,000,000
1,000,000 shares |
= $1.00 in earnings per share
(EPS) |
Market Capitalization. The current
market value of all of a company's shares outstanding. To calculate
market value, you take the number of shares outstanding and multiply
them by the current price of each share. You can find information about
shares outstanding from the company's last quarterly report or any
online quote service.
For instance, if a company has 10 million shares outstanding and
trades at $13 per share, the market capitalization is $130 million.
| Market Cap. |
=Shares Outstanding * Share
Price =10 million * $13 = $130
million |
Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E). Earnings
per share alone mean absolutely nothing. In order to get a sense of how
expensive or cheap a stock is, you have to look at those earnings
relative to the stock price. To do this, most investors employ the
price/earnings (P/E) ratio. The P/E ratio takes the stock price and
divides it by the last four quarters' worth of earnings. If XYZ Corp. is
currently trading at $15 a share with $1.00 of earnings per share (EPS),
it would have a P/E of 15.
$15 share price
$1.00 in trailing EPS |
= 15 P/E |
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs
are a specialized form of equity that allows investors to own a portion
of a group of real estate properties, although many investors think of
them as an alternative to bonds. REITs have become increasingly popular
over the past decade. Granted special tax status by the Internal Revenue
Service, REITs pay out at least 95% of their earnings in the form of
dividends to shareholders, often offering healthy dividend yields of the
same magnitude as bonds. Even better, as REITs acquire more property and
increase the value of the properties they own, the value of the equity
increases as well, providing a nice total return. For more information
on REITs, check the website for the
National Association of REITS (NAREIT).
Relative Strength. Relative strength,
also known as relative price strength, rates the performance of a stock
versus the performance of the market as a whole over a given time
period. The rating system gives a numerical grade - just like the ones
Mr. Spicer used to scrawl in bright red ink on your algebra quizzes - to
the performance of a stock over a given period, normally the past 12
months. Thus, relative strength is a momentum indicator.
The most popular form of relative strength ratings are those
published in Investor's Business Daily, which go from 1 to 99. A
relative strength of 95, for example, indicates a wonderful stock, one
that has outperformed 95% of all other U.S. stocks over the past year.
However, given that relative strength is only a mathematical
relationship between the stock's performance and an index's performance,
many others have created their own relative strength measures.
Revenues. Also known as sales, revenues
are how much the company has sold over a given period. Annual revenues
would be the sales for a given year, whereas quarterly revenues would be
the sales for a given quarter.
Sales. Also known as revenues, sales are
literally how much the company has sold over a given period. Annual
sales would be the sales for a given year, whereas quarterly sales would
be the sales for a given quarter.
Utilities. A business that provides a
service essential to almost everyone is called a utility. These
businesses are almost always under some form of regulation by the
government and normally have a monopoly position in a certain region.
Electric companies, natural gas providers, and local phone companies are
often referred to as utilities.
Volume. The number of shares traded on a
given day is known as the volume. Many investors look at volume over a
month or a year to come up with average daily volume. Market watchers
will say a company has traded at a certain number of times the average
daily volume, giving the investor a sense of how active the stock was on
a certain day relative to previous days. When major news is announced, a
stock can trade as much as 20 or 30 times its average daily volume,
particularly if the average daily volume is very low.
The average number of shares traded gives an investor an idea of a
company's liquidity - how easy it is to buy and sell a particular stock.
Highly liquid stocks trade easily in large batches with low transaction
costs. Illiquid stocks trade infrequently and large sales often cause
the price to rise or fall dramatically. Illiquid stocks on the Nasdaq
also tend to carry the largest spreads, the difference between the
buying price and the selling price.