 |
|
| |
|
|
. | ||
 |
| |
|
............................................... |
............................................... .............................................................. |
Problems and prospects for NWFP*Published by the daily Sindh Express, Karachi on June 9, 1990 The National Economic Council's 63 billion Annual Development Programmed for the year 1990-91, as disclosed after May 27 meeting, has once again given rise to the unfolding of the Pandora box of laborious figure work by the fiscal experts of the smaller provinces. Since the entire federal planning is being conducted under the so-called Seventh five-year Plan that was engineered by Gen. Zia's economists with his own vision of the economy. Surprisingly, most of the present day rulers and the followers of progressive school of thought were then visibly unhappy over the dictated aims and objectives of the said long-term plan. Presently as the country is entering the third year of the five-year program, the recent NEC developmental program has seemingly come out of tune to the basic scheme of long term planning. The practical factors like population growth, inflation, mass migration within the country and from the neighboring countries and purchasing power of the average citizen are the instances that are not properly projected in the indices that age given by the NEC deliberations. In fact such a situation was mentioned by the rulers of today when the Junejo's five-point program was put into gear under the same five-year Plan. Later, it was the same Dr. Mahboob ul Haq himself who observed that the five-point program did not achieve what was targeted in the long-term blueprints. Within the same guidelines and economic forecasts, presently the NWFP Chief Minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao sounded reasonable when he mentioned of the census dilemma with respect to the distribution of federal budget allocations to his province. Since the expert opinion about the recovery on the part of NWFP of the losses that the province sustained during the ten years old Afghan issue has validly asked for a 20 percent rise in the federal development grants for the province. The presently agreed figure of 13 percent rise in the Annual Development Plan as compared to the previous year, seems to be another puzzling fiscal cum statistical statement. Mr. A. G. N. Qazi, himself has agreed to the fact of its being lowered to the original figure of 15 per cent rise outlined in the original five-year plan. The difference of 2% less funds availability to the NWFP could clearly mean that at the third year of the long term economic planning under a political government the province will still be staggering behind the progress line. The uncontrolled factors like population increase and the influx of immigrants into the province ipso facto reflect upon the consequences of such an approach, creating retarded activity for the province. Still on the fronts of real gross national product and income distribution, the increasing inflationary market situation with poor purchasing power by the lay man and soaring unemployment will be producing a further negative effect upon the poor masses of the province. The very program envisaged to maintain most of the indices as being its key objectives, ignoring the facts of real growth in the economy, has virtually brought the entire planning to a strategy of nilpotent value. Sustaining a real GDP growth of 5.5%, reducing inflation by .6% in 1990-91, keeping the monetary expansion attached to the growth rate of nominal GDP and raising investment level by 0.8% amid the competitiveness in the external field could be an interesting instance of intermingling Macro economics with that of Micro approach for the NWFP. Such a strategy may be deemed practicable by the federal bureaucrats for the very reasons to tune their vices along side the Govt. in respect of the process of de-nationalization. However, consequences of such a strategy that would be constantly leaving the province with a vacuum in her economy, the prediction that has never been felt. To the provincial government such vacuum could be overcome by asking for the payment of her share in the revenue generated by the hydro stations etc. However, with such a request the Federal; Government has opted for wait and see tactics that would clearly mean that the province will be having a tougher financial year. Further, since the rate of inflation in the province could be calculated as higher than the rest of the country for the very reasons of the available hot cash with the Afghans in our open market. And, hence the approach of the NEC towards containing inflation to a level that is too down, the Frontier province market graph might create another hazard in the coming financial year. In such a situation it could be said that we are heading towards the post-1971 like economic situations. Then the government had opted for a strategy of short term planning. Thus in the interests of the survival of the NWFP economy and the pace of uplift in the province it would suit the federal government to introduce short term measures on priority basis to help boost the economy. In Peshawar, various circles have opined about the deliberations of the recent meeting of NEC where the NWFP request for her share in the federal funds and the demand by Balochistan Chief Minister Akbar Bugti for advanced loans sustained no grounds for the very reasons that the federation was short of funds. This situation of blockade and stalemate has made many a circles to wonder if the federal government will allow the smaller provinces to proceed ahead for foreign loans on its own. And this question is but of constitutional in nature and will be giving way to various observations by different segments of our political spectrum. In fact the provincial government of NWFP under the charismatic leadership of Aftab Khan Sherpao is severely pressed to the fiscal and financial depressions. His every day visitors regularly press him to extend financial gains to them. The trade unionists, those coming from the government services, including the doctors and lecturers, are constantly pressing him for a proper service structure which if allowed would means further budget deficits to the province. During the last week of May when the provincial bureaucrats were moving towards the finalization of the blueprints of the budget for 1990-91 Aftab Khan earned another point of praises that comes to his career record from the always ignored Police services personnel. In a message delivered to the Police passing out he declared to be raising the pay scales of the entire police force and has just with the budgetary measure brought about a revolutionary change for the provincial police. Constables are raised to grade 5 from the traditional grade 2 while inspectors would be having grade 11 and 16. Such a step has brought him in line with his brother, the late Hayat Mohammad Khan Sherpao who was the first ever-provincial chief executive who in 1972 raised the policemen salaries up to a respectable level. This times after more than 20 years police has been given a raise. This was in deed felt by the citizens and all circles of intelligence in the province that amid the increased scenario of lawlessness our police is to be provided with valid securities. Presently another social group that would need the attention of the government is that of the retired government servants who pension be raised.
|
|
.......................................................... ..................................................................................................... ...... |
.
