Datum	Länk	Egen kommentar
1999-05-31	Vart tionde svenskt småföretag får problem	Enligt en SIFO-undersökning får vart tionde svenskt småföretag problem med 2000-omställningen. Anmärkningsvärt i undersökningen är att många småförtagare fortfarande anser att 2000-problemet bara är ett försäljningsargument för konsultföretagen. Det här är från IDG: Småföretagens 2000-arbete sackar efter övriga Sveriges. Det bekräftas nu i en Sifo-undersökning. Småföretagens 2000-arbete sackar efter övriga Sveriges, både vad gäller kartläggning av 2000-problem och åtgärd av dessa. Det konstateras i en Sifo-undersökning som beställts av Överstyrelsen för civil beredskap, ÖCB, 2000-delegationen och Företagarnas Riksorganisation, FR. I undersökningen framgår att, av alla små och medelstora företag i Sverige, kan vart tionde få problem i samband med övergången till år 2000. Dessutom saknar 60 procent av de små och medelstora företagen tillräckligt bra underlag för att kunna bedöma hur de eventuellt skulle kunna påverkas vid övergången. Skillnaderna mellan olika branscher är dock stora, företag som verkar inom kemi-, gummi-, plast- och elektronikindustrin ligger generellt sätt bättre till med sitt 2000-arbete än små och medelstora företag inom andra branscher. Samtidigt framgår av undersökningen att många av de intervjuade anser att 2000-problemet är överdrivet och att IT-konsulter använder det som ett försäljningsargument för att ge sina egna konsulter jobb. 700 företagare med mellan 5-19 anställda har intervjuats om företagets 2000-anpassning.
1999-05-28	"Venezuela har knappt börjat"	En av världens största oljeexportörer, Venezuela, har knappt påbörjat arbetet med år 2000-problemen. Det behövs snabbt minst 1.5 miljarder USD för att landet inte ska totalförlamas år 2000. "We are very behind and it is very, very serious. We need $1.5 billion for this, which was not approved by the previous government," Pena told journalists at the Miraflores presidential palace. The government of President Hugo Chavez already is struggling to deal with a $5 billion fiscal deficit, equivalent to about 5 percent of gross domestic product.
1999-05-28	Intel varnar: Risk för allvarliga störningar i den amerikanska ekonomin och Japans kraftförsörjning hotad	The world's key supplier of microprocessor chips to the PC industry warns that apparently lagging efforts by Japan's public utilities to correct Year 2000 computer bugs could grow into serious disruptions of global personal computer shipments and, in turn, damage the U.S. economy next year. That is because a shutdown of the Japanese power grid next January could jeopardize supply lines to the personal computer industry around the world, Donald K. Rose, general manager of Y2K projects for Intel Corp., said in an interview here.
1999-05-28	Hälften av Intels 500 KRITISKA leverantörer ej säkrade	Någon som tror att New York-börsen ligger kvar på nuvarande fantasinivåer om Intel får ett långvarigt avbrott i sin produktion?
1999-05-28	Har Koskinen verkligen sagt det här?	In speaking with the CIO of Georgian state systems, the CIO mentioned that Koskinen had told them to ensure their contingency plans addressed 3 weeks without electric power."
1999-05-27	Ej säkert att "2000-säkrade" produkter är säkrade	I.T. managers take note: Just because a product is declared "Y2K compliant" today doesn't guarantee that it will be tomorrow.
1999-05-26	Också Ed Yourdon fick vittna inför Senaten - kritiserar Alan Greenspan	Jag kan rekommendera Dig att följa länken och läsa vad Ed Yourdon säger. Det här är ett kärnbudskap: Y2K preparedness, whether at the personal level or the community level, is based on two fundamental issues: the "stakes," and the "risks." All of us need to examine our own lives, the lives of our family members, and the day-to-day activities of our community, and then ask, "What's at stake here? What have we got to lose? What's the worst that can happen if a Y2K problem occurs?" And then, as a related but nevertheless distinct question, we need to ask, "What's the risk of such a Y2K problem occurring?" It's important to differentiate stakes from risks, for otherwise, we're likely to make poor decisions about appropriate preparations. For example, I sometimes get e-mail questions from people asking how they can determine the risk of a Y2K-related malfunction in their automatic coffee-maker. It's an interesting question, but my response is usually, "Who cares?" Much as we all like a good cup of coffee in the morning, the malfunctioning of such a machine is unlikely to be a serious tragedy. En bit in i talet kritiserar han också Alan Greenspan: As another example of unfortunate rhetoric, consider the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on May 6th of this year, at a Chicago Fed conference, after delivering a speech about the economy: "I'm increasingly less concerned about whether there will be true systemic problems. What I am concerned about are peoples' reactions to the fear that something momentous is going to happen on January 1st 2000.'' He went on to say, "I'm sure that people will get very wise soon and recognize that the last thing you want to do is to draw inordinate amounts of currency out of the banks." It's comforting to know that Mr. Greenspan is "increasingly less concerned" than he presumably was at some point in the past, though it would be nice to know what he means by "true systemic problems" and why he's less concerned. But if I'm a typical middle-class citizen, I'm probably less concerned about such cosmic issues as "systemic problems" than I am about the question of whether I should take some of my money out of the bank. And it's the last sentence of the excerpt quoted above that addresses that question. Most of us understand that Mr. Greenspan is advising us not to do anything extreme or rash. But how are we supposed to translate that into specific action? In particular, how are we supposed to interpret the word "inordinate" in the context of Mr. Greenspan's sentence? Is $100 inordinate? A thousand dollars? A week's income? A month's income? Does "inordinate" mean the same thing for all of us, or does it mean something different for married people with children than it does for single people? Take a look at Mr. Greenspan's sentence again - "I'm sure that people will get very wise soon and recognize that the last thing you want to do is to draw inordinate amounts of currency out of the banks" - and you'll see that it raises a number of other questions, such as: 1.Does Mr. Greenspan mean that "people" are not very wise today? All of the people? Some of the people? Am I one of those people? Is he one of those people? How would we know one of those unwise people if we bump into them? 2.Just how "unwise" are we? How long have we been unwise? What made us unwise? Is our unwiseness dangerous to our health? To someone else's health? What credentials are required to declare that someone is wise or unwise? 3.Just how "soon" we all become "very wise"? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month? How will we know when it has happened? By what miraculous means will this occur? How much wiser will we be when we have become very wise? Twice as wise? 4.What is the basis - i.e., "I am sure" - for Mr. Greenspan's confidence that this sudden increase of wisdom will occur soon? Is there some pronouncement we should be waiting for, e.g., where the GAO and the President hold a joint conference in which they provide both scientific proof that there won't be any major breakdowns? 5.Why is drawing "inordinate amounts" (whatever that means) the "last thing you want to do"? What are all the things that would precede this last thing - i.e., is there a subtle implication that there might be other "socially acceptable" forms of Y2K preparation that would okay, just so long as the "last thing" we contemplate is drawing out inordinate amounts of currency? 6.If the drawing out of "currency" is being described as a not-very- wise act of not-very-wise people, is there some other form in which it could be withdrawn that would meet the approval of the very-wise-ones? What about T-bills? What about gold? What about writing a check that empties your bank account, for the purchase of a zillion cases of Spam? With all due respect to Mr. Greenspan, I don't think that speeches like this one contribute to the kind of thoughtful discourse that we need to have if we hope to make an informed decision about what we plan to do with our money that currently resides in the nation's banks. On the contrary, the speech consists of a number of ambiguous, undefined terms strung together in such a way as to provide an emotional appeal against panicking.
1999-05-26	Äntligen en rakryggad journalist!	Jag appåderar Kerry Brock, en journalist som vittnat i Senaten. Äntligen någon som officiellt ställer de svåra frågorna! Ja, hur kommer det sig att regeringen hävdar en sak, men antalet incidenter och vittnesmål pekar i rakt motsatt riktning? I Sverige är det knappt någon som bryr sig om vilket. "År 2000? Äh, det fixar dom... Dom? Ja, Dom, du vet..." Det är fortfarande långt kvar innan svenskarna fattar att det rör dem PERSONLIGEN, som INDIVIDER. Det här är ganska långt, men jag lägger ut hela rasket ändå. Det behövs. Y2K is a unique tale playing itself out on the landscape of American journalism as part concern and part cartoon. And as you said, Senator Bennett, "How do we strike a balance between Paul Revere and Chicken Little?" In recent months my organization, the Media Studies Center, has heard from hundreds of journalists who are looking for the proper voice in which to tell this story. In the words of a reporter from the San Jose Mercury News, right now journalists on this beat are forced into guessing. Many news organizations are not digging into the technical vulnerabilities of their towns, cities, and states. In part, because of a lack of leadership from the federal government. Not only a lack of leadership, but also a lack of consensus within government entities charged with gathering these facts. The governments' own Y2K Czar, John Koskinen, advises journalists to continually drive toward the facts . Though it seems obvious to journalists in the know, Mr. Koskinen seems to avoid facts. Always in a calm and low key presentation, he tells us the power industry nationally has done well but he's concerned about local power companies. He thinks the national telephone systems will work but he is concerned about the 1400 small telephone companies. He indicates we should not worry but we should worry. These are not facts, but public valium, and the news media as a whole is not picking up on it. As Jeff Gralnick of CNN told us "journalists are drowning in a sea of conflicting information." In the absence of consistent facts, government proclamations that are not stories become stories. Consider these headlines; "FAA head books flight for New Year's," "Y2K Czar Sees Serene January 1," "Don't Panic Over Y2K, Senators Say." Then, journalists find conflicting information in the government's own Y2K websites. For starters, this Senate committee's web site offers a clear link to Mr. Koskinen's Y2K. gov website but Mr Koskinen's buries its link back to the Senate's. Why? Is there a difference of opinion between the two? Senator Dodd, you state: "The world oil supply faces a series of Y2K risks from the well in the ground to the gas station in your neighborhood." Mr. Koskinen says, " Although there may be some minor disruptions .... the industries are confident ... that the supply of natural gas and petroleum...products (will be) uninterrupted." This committee cites a GAO survey that raises major concern over the readiness of America's water utilities. On the other hand, Mr Koskinen reports cautious optimism that water utility services will continue uninterrupted by Y2K issues. Journalists are not getting a clear and consistent message . Marsha Stepanek of Business Week magazine says "this story takes commitment and manpower" and Senators, you need to explain why news organization should give it both. A few journalists have been assigned the Y2K beat and they get it; they understand this issue is not black and white - it cannot be polarized. Long ago they abandoned the plane-falling-out-of-the sky-analogies in their reporting. These are the reporters looking every day for hard information. Journalists want you to admit what you don't know and admit why that worries you. Then they can explain to the public how the lack of information might signal problems. And they can report how the government suggests we prepare to cope with potential problems. Unfortunately, journalists on this beat tell us they now find information that looks suspiciously like a cover up. ABC correspondent, James Walker, found the following instructions on an electric utilities website regarding a Y2K drill. "Do not make the drill too complex. We want to have a successful and meaningful story for publication." Then there is the rest of the news media, reporters doing stories every day on health, finance, religion, politics, media, the arts, entertainment, news, weather and sports. There is a potential Y2K issue in each of these areas and more. Help journalists understand that it is not just a technology story and help them explain that to the rest of America. It is important to recognize that there are individual examples of fine Y2K coverage every day and local news organizations taking it upon themselves to make preparedness suggestions. News reports in Miami tell residents to prepare as if for a hurricane, in San Francisco as if an earthquake, in Oklahoma as if a tornado. But it remains a patchwork of reporting that has not formed a nationwide mosaic of understanding. Big companies are admitting in increasing numbers that they won't be ready in time. Perhaps the government could convene a summit that brings captains of industry together to explain to journalists how system breakdowns in the private sector might affect the public. Through the news media you could instantly attach honesty, leadership, public understanding and perhaps calm, supplanting the current environment of ignorance, confusion and in some cases, panic. Y2K is not a hurricane earthquake or tornado: this is an expected event. If Y2K failures are a fraction of what the government believes they might be, in the post- millennium blame game, journalists will haunt the people responsible for duplicity.
1999-05-25	Varför säljrekommendationer är ovanliga	The Street gör en story av CS First Bostons utspel om säljrekommendationen av bankaktier. And for all the talk (mostly from people who got hurt by the downgrade) over how Mayo's just a publicity hound, you have to respect the risk he's taken. One of the reasons that analysts don't give sell ratings is that it can damage their relationships with companies -- and without a good relationship, it's hard to get needed information. For analysts like Mayo who cover financial companies, there's an extra reason: Financial companies employ securities analysts. Piss people off, and you jeopardize your future. Was Mayo showboating a bit with his call? Probably. But it showed conviction, too, and that's a welcome thing to see on Wall Street.
1999-05-25	Bankaktierna sjönk på Wall Street - Y2K orsak	En analytiker på Wall Street varnade för bankaktier med anledning av millenniumskiftet. Bankaktierna ledde nedgången på Wall Street under gårdagen. Det här är första gången y2k-problem har angetts som huvudanledning till en nedgång på Wall Street. Men definitivt inte sista. Alla sektorer i ekonomin står inför liknande problem. Den genomsnittlige investeraren har ännu ingen aning om vad implikationerna av varningen från analytikern blir. Men det kommer snart. Allmänheten är ännu inte medveten om omfattningen av hotet. Man kommer att förneka och förtränga det i det längsta. The financial services sector was particularly hit hard after a top Wall Street analyst made the unusual move of recommending that investors sell multinational bank stocks because of year 2000 computer concerns and other issues. Chase Manhattan Corp. was off 3-1/8 at 75-7/8, J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc. fell 1-15/16 at 136-3/4 and Bank One Corp. lost 1-2/16 at 58-11/16 after Credit Suisse First Boston banking analyst Michael Mayo warned that the millennium computer bug could cut banks' earnings. Mayo also said that their revenues from capital markets are "unsustainably high." The sell-off in the wake of the rare "sell" recommendation was not limited to the money-center banks, but spread to some larger regional banks and major brokerages as well. "A Y2K problem with a bank in an emerging market country has the potential to cause glitches for banks in the United States," Mayo wrote in a special report.
1999-05-25	Företagen säger en sak - verkligheten är en annan	Situationen är INTE så ljus som så många vill göra gällande. Y2K Newswire sammanfattar de senaste veckornas mörka rapporter: As reported in the New York Times, new research results from Cap Gemini show some frightening facts: only about half of the companies that expected to have 50% or more of their code renovated by January 1 of 1999 actually met that goal. The percentage of firms expecting to have more than 3/4ths of their code "completely tested and compliant by December 31, 1999" has actually dropped from 88% to 78%. Nearly 10% of the systems submitted to Cap Gemini for review -- claimed to be fully compliant -- were found to be non-compliant. Twenty-two percent of companies don't expect to make the 1/1/2000 deadline at all, 92% are behind schedule and 88% said that would have to -- yet again -- increase spending estimates. An analysis of Fortune 100 firms by Weiss Ratings showed that eight had only spent from 25% - 30% of their total Y2K budgets by the end of 1998, and thirty-one more of the Fortune 100 were rated as "below average" on Y2K compliance status. The public found out how the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) allowed power companies to claim Y2K-compliance simply by listing non-compliant systems on an "exceptions list." This sham was immediately recognized as yet another compliance gimmick designed to hide the truth from the people. A new report from Triaxsys Research, another independent research firm, shows that nearly 20% of Fortune 1000 firms have spent only around 40% of their total Y2K budgets. Another 30% have only spent from 40% to 60%. The study shows that budgets continue to grow, and the vice president of Triaxsys indicates she's only confident 231 companies will actually make it. A Canadian study of large companies reveals that while 15% stated they were Y2K-compliant last year, only 18% said they were this year: an improvement of only 3%. Furthermore, while most companies said last year they would be compliant by December 31, 1998, the story changes this year: most say they'll be compliant by the Summer of 1999. A statement by Italy's equivalent of John Koskinen shocked the world. In this Times report, he's quoted as saying, "Italy is going to crash, and we are going to be crucified. We are supposed to make things go so smoothly that nobody would realise there was ever a problem. Instead we will be the scapegoats." Another Fortune 1000 research project, conducted by Weiss Ratings, revealed yet more startling figures: 34% of Fortune 1000 firms continue refusing to release data, utilities and telecommunications industries show a surprisingly-poor status (no telecommunications firms received a "high" rating, for example), companies have still only spent half their Y2K budgets, and America's two largest corporations -- General Motors and Ford -- received a "below average" rating. The game of musical deadline chairs continues: companies that were screaming, "December 31, 1998!" are now whispering, "June, 1999." But even that doesn't give them enough time: June deadlines are already slipping into September, October and even December. No deadline is real, it seems, and the public is no longer buying it. The stunning lack of compliance announcements has spooked everyone. Only a handful of companies have actually achieved anything near compliance, and when they do, they shout it loudly and clearly. For example, look at the compliance statement from Compass Bank. Even then, it's a qualified compliance, covering only "mission-critical" systems.
1999-05-24	The Basic Problem	Bundesbank, den tyska centralbanken, beskriver här riskerna som banksektorn ställs inför med anledning av övergången till år 2000. Y2K enbart konsulthype??? Skulle inte tro det... With the transition from the year 1999 to 2000, major problems may occur in computer systems which represent the year using only two digits - as has largely been the case up to now. The cause of the problem is that a very large number of computer programs running in many mainframe systems and PCs were developed at a time when memory and calculating time were very expensive. In order to save memory, computer programmers often used only the last two digits to designate the year in data processing applications, on the assumption that the first two digits of the year would always be 19. This practice was frequently retained in later, advanced versions, since many programmers assumed that their work would no longer be in use by the year 2000. Such problems are not limited to in-house computing applications: they may just as easily occur in system software and external software. The reliability of data processing may also be jeopardized if defective data are imported through data links with other counterparties (external interfaces). It is not only computers that have to contend with this date conversion, however. Computer-controlled processes (embedded systems) which access date information, such as safes, cash machines, air-conditioning systems and telecommunications installations, must be made ready for the new millennium in order to prevent a disruption of operations. This concerns both in-house systems and services performed by general service providers such as telecommunications providers, energy providers, etc. From a banking supervisory perspective, this problem poses a considerable challenge on account of the many different computing and information technology applications employed in the financial sector. Even if problems of this kind occur only at individual credit institutions, they may have repercussions on the entire banking sector because of the high degree of networking, especially in payments. The main risks to the banks arising from the transition to the new millennium may be categorized as follows: * Impairment or breakdown of operations due to the defectiveness of the bank’s own computer systems. * Impairment or breakdown of operations caused by the importation of defective data via external interfaces with service providers, banks, corporate or private customers. * Inability of credit customers to make payments and/or withdrawal of deposits by depositors because their systems have broken down on account of the transition to the new millennium (credit and liquidity risk). * Legal risk in the form of customers’ recourse claims if data has been processed defectively. Overcoming this problem is time-critical. The year 2000 cannot be postponed by fiat. Every credit institution is affected, irrespective of whether computer-controlled services are produced in-house or bought in.
1999-05-24	Intel varnar: Brist på mikrochips 2000	Världens förbrukare av mikrochips är rädda att Japans sena start med 2000-omställningen ska skapa brist på mikrochips. Men den globala recessionen år 2000 kommer sannolikt att minska efterfrågan. Så det kanske inte blir så allvarligt ändå... Tokyo - Could fab lines around the globe grind to a halt in six months when the calendar flips over to 2000? That was the fear expressed by representatives of Intel Corp., who were here last week to work on what they see as the weakest link for Y2K compliance in the semiconductor industry: Japan's materials and equipment companies. Executives from the world's largest chip maker warned of a grave lack of hard data from government bodies here to back up Y2K compliance claims. Intel is worried that if the claims go unchecked, undetected bugs could shut down the materials pipeline needed to produce semiconductors, a scenario that would cause a ripple effect throughout the electronic-component and systems industries, Intel executives warned. "I would say the biggest risk we face is in Japan," said Donald Rose, general manager of year-2000 projects for Intel (Santa Clara, Calif.). If the company's worst fears come true, "it would cause a serious disruption to the making of chips around the world, and I don't think we will be the only semiconductor maker that will be in that situation." Rose admitted he has no hard evidence to predict disaster in the supply chain for critical parts and materials coming from Japan. Indeed, Intel has seen Japanese companies make great strides in addressing the millennium bug in recent weeks, he said. What's more, Intel believes there is still ample time to address any lingering problems. However, the company has observed significant cases of foot-dragging in Japan on the Y2K issue from its own suppliers, leading it to suspect a more widespread problem involving the country's utilities and transportation infrastructure.
1999-05-24	Lite uppmuntrande läsning...	Författaren till den här uppsaten är om möjligt ännu mer pessimistisk än Gary North om framtidsutsikterna. Läs på egen risk.
1999-05-24	Inget lätt arbete för rederierna	Om Du undrar varför så lite kommer ut från sjöfartsindustrin kan det här vara en bra förklaring. Här är en lista på de system som måste åtgärdas ombord på fartygen. Listan är så lång att Du sannolikt behöver byta toner på skrivaren om du ska skriva ut den...
1999-05-24	Europeiska flygplatser kommer inte att hinna klart	Sunday Times rapporterar att många europeiska flygplatser, inklusive de tre största i Paris, samt Roms och Madrids internationella flygplatser, löper stor risk att inte hinna klart med förberedelserna inför det nya millenniet.
1999-05-23	Swiss America: Investera klokt inför det nya millenniet	Tradingfirman Swiss America tar Y2K på fullaste allvar. I en krönika reflekterar VD Craig Smith över hur bisarrt det är att marknaden inte diskonterar y2k-problemen. Can anything stop the Dow? Is the economy really that good in the U.S. to justify the market's climb to its present heights? Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the best minds on Wall Street are now scared. If you have followed my newsletter throughout the years, you know that I became very bullish at about 6,000 on the Dow. I realized, like many, that the Dow had a life of its own, and that the momentum was just too strong to go against it. I started to get a little less bullish at 8,500. When 9,000 came, once again, I became a little more concerned, figuring the air had to be let out a bit sooner or later. Then 9,500, I said, "This is probably about all she has." Now comes 11,000. To put it simply- I'm scared for my clients and for the country as a whole, yet I cringe at telling you what follows, for concern that it will keep going. But I must. ...For well over a year now, the concern of Y2K has been lingering in the marketplace. The whole thought of corporations not being able to produce a product, or to produce it with less efficiency, should be of concern to investors. Let's face some facts, unless all the systems are fixed and fully functioning, you could see a huge hit to corporate America's productivity. All the talk for the last year has been about the money being spent remediating "mission critical" systems. However, little or no money at all has been spent on fixing the "non-mission critical" systems, many of which are critical to the production and delivery of everything from faucets to light bulbs. If that flow is interrupted for any period of time, you can assure yourself that profits will be affected. If profits are affected, you know what will happen to the price of shares. The U.S. government assessed that of its 66,000 computer functions, 6399 were in fact "mission critical." Most obvious, social services, tax collection and military defense. Americans depend on getting Social Security, welfare and food stamp checks on time, yet have taken for granted living in a country that has a strong military defense. Moving Beyond Mission Critical The government has spent billions of dollars getting the most politically sensitive area fixed first: Social Security. The task only took 10 years and hundreds of thousands of man-hours to complete. The federal government now tells us that they will be 90% "compliant" by Dec 31, 1999. Assuming they are being truthful, we can safely assume that come Jan 1, 2000, they will begin to focus the attention on "non-mission critical" systems. My question: If it took billions of dollars and millions of man hours to fix mission critical systems that only represented approximately 10% of all systems needing repair, what will be the time and cost of fixing the remaining 59,601 systems ? Now let's apply the government experience to the corporate world, which started much later than the government did in addressing their problems. Let's assume that corporate America is much more efficient than government and they will have 25% (not 10% like the government) of their entire "mission critical" systems fixed by year 2000. Let's say that when the New Year arrives, they only have 75% to go. This means that the costly and time-consuming process will remain while the bills for fixing continue to come in, thus, adversely affecting the bottom line. Meanwhile, the bill for last year's fixes which were made just to stay in business will begin to show up on balance sheets. Companies will now have a double-whammy, forcing the price of shares to drop and drop hard. That is a best case scenario. Worst case, the systems that were thought to be "non mission critical" are found out to be non-mission critical to operation, but very critical to profitable operation. Imagine: Customer service is down while orders are lost and deliveries late. One won't be able to call their broker fast enough to beat the stampede of scared investors to the exit doors. Yet, this is just one aspect of Y2K that could affect value in the market. If I were to discuss the potential of what happens should the power grid go down for any more than a couple of hours, I could paint a very bleak picture. Frankly, it gets rather depressing when I do, so I opt not to. Many aspects of Y2K present a clear and present danger to your money and the stock market. However, to suggest we should take some defensive postures in this market environment is considered blaspheme to the almighty market, or worse, one may find themselves labeled a fear monger or doomsayer.
1999-05-22	Andelen säkrade system hos amerikanska försvaret har MINSKAT!	Vid årsskiftet uppgav amerikanska försvarsdepartementet att man 2000-säkrat 81% av sina system. För en vecka sedan var samma siffra 72%. Alltså EN MINSKNING! ...The Pentagon has also come under fire from Rep. Stephen Horn, R-Calif. According to Horn, the DoD reported 81 percent compliance of mission-critical systems last December, but reported only 72 percent compliance just weeks ago. "This discrepancy shows that either the department has taken a huge step backward in its Year 2000 readiness, or the department is inconsistent in what systems are critical to its mission," said Horn, who chaired the Government Reform subcommittee hearing. "Either way, I am concerned by this inconsistency."
1999-05-22	"Två tredjedelar av ryska och baltiska företag kan ha upphört inom ett år"	När ska folk vakna? De ser idag sina kontoutdrag från sina fondkommissionärsfirmor och banker som talar om att deras aktie- och fondtillgångar har ökat ytterligare några procentenheter sedan årsskiftet. Om inte marknaden oroar sig så finns det väl ingenting att oroa sig för som individ? Eller? Europa kommer att falla tungt. Minns bara hur mycket de europeiska börserna drabbades av Asienkrisen för knappt ett år sedan. Y2K-krisen blir värre och drabbar både oss själva och våra grannländer i Europa. Tänk på det. Look at the Big Picture? It's not Pretty. Whether Latvian ports, utilities, and businesses have done enough to fix their own equipment, computers, and software might turn out to be a moot point, if Russian rail and energy failures leave Latvia without even the remnants of a wealthy eastern neighbor. If Russian cargo cannot be shipped to Latvia, it will matter little whether Ventspils and Riga ports have checked their systems for non-compliant chips. Germany to Suffer In the same research report which forecasted the mission-critical system failures in two-thirds of Baltic and Russian businesses, 50% of German firms and 15% of Swedish firms are also predicted to experience mission critical Y2K failures. This should be of significant concern to everyone in Latvia, as Germany and Sweden are among Latvia's most significant trade and political partners. If, as testing has lead many experts to anticipate, Germany's lackadaisical response to the Y2K crisis leads to failures in every major industry and organization, Germany's already high unemployment numbers (10%+) will rise dramatically, forcing Germany to abandon its expensive "hobbies" of foreign aid, European integration, and perhaps even its war in Serbia. Latvia, whose existence most Germans even now are unaware of, will be even more insignificant to the German people and government if Audi, VW, and Mercedes can no longer keep their factories working. As sad as all of this is, the sadder fact is that most of Europe (with the exception of the UK, Ireland, and Scandinavia) is equally unprepared for the millenium. This cannot be good for Latvia. Misconceptions Abound The logical person, when exposed to these forecasts, wonders why little has been said or done about this issue in Latvia, Russia, and Europe. A slew of misconceptions has kept all but the diligent from learning the shocking facts of the Y2K crisis. It is called a computer problem, but it affects every country, business, and individual on the planet. It's called "a" problem, but is actually millions of problems in millions of embedded systems, processors, and applications. It's called an American marketing scam, but few countries stand to lose as much from this crisis as America does. Putting Out Fire with Gasoline Managers think they're solving the problem when they assign an IT tech to address it, and in doing so they display their ignorance of the most important fact about the Y2K crisis -- it is a business problem, not a computer problem. The manager, bureaucrat, or politician who directs technicians to deal with the problem is like the pilot who orders a stewardess to fly his plane through a tornado and land it on a rooftop. Y2K will radically change the total business climate and affect every area of strategy, so the manager who does not make surviving Y2K his own personal passion might as well find a source of semitchkas and look for a place outside the Centralstacija to start selling them. The bureaucrat will be able to plead ignorance, the politician can start a war as a distraction, but the business manager will either prepare for the worst or find it coming to him as a nasty New Year's present. This problem cannot be delegated away by top managers.
1999-05-22	CBS 60 Minutes tar upp y2k igen - allvarligare den här gången	'60 MINS' PLANNING NEW Y2K SCARE STORY; WATER, ELECTRICITY MAY BE CUT, SAYS MAG Y2chaos on CBS-TV this weekend! Despite the billions being spent to deal with the Y2K computer bug, many cities in America are uncertain they'll be able to continue to provide basic services like water and electricity on Jan. 1, 2000, reports 60 MINUTES in a new shock story being readied for Sunday. CBS' Steve Kroft is putting the finishing touches on his controversial report, according to network sources. Mary Ellen Hanley, a computer systems specialist hired by the District of Columbia, tells wide-eyed Kroft that she believes Washington will continue to function on Jan. 1, 2000, but it must be prepared for what many cities could face. "We think there will be some disruptions... localized in many cases if the supply chain works," Hanley tells the cameras. "If power works, if gas works, if Bell Atlantic works... all of those are big ifs." Hanley explains to Kroft that contingency programs, such as centers where city workers would manually verify taxes or write welfare checks, are being planned by her office. And even though she believes the city's water system can run without computers, rationing could be necessary if a power outage for as long as a week or two -- slows down water distribution. Sen. Robert Bennet, R-Utah, who chairs a special Y2K Technology, scares the stopwatch and explains: "If, for example, there is a municipality that is unable to distribute welfare checks, there could be some civil unrest that could come out of that. If, if there was a disruption in the food supply, and food didn't get in, in a distributive kind of way. That it was concentrated in one part of the city but not in another, that could be a situation that could create some civil unrest." Tick, Tick, T. . .
1999-05-22	Stora frågetecken kring oljeindustrin, säger GAO	Utan olja stannar bokstavligen världen. Rapporten som amerikanska GAO (motsvaras ungefär av Statskontoret i Sverige) levererade i veckan kring oljebranschen lämnar mycket övrigt att önska. En potentiell katastrof hotar världen. Allmänheten har ingen aning. Politikerna rycker på axlarna. Få bryr sig. Det är bisarrt: Insaterna är extrema, oddsen okända och knappt någon är bekymrad. Det här är taget från GAO:s rapport: The oil and gas industries are dependent on computer control systems and embedded systems that are susceptible to Year 2000 failures. The industries’ analysis has shown that Year 2000 failures can occur at many links in the chain of oil and gas operations. The oil and gas industries rely on computer monitoring and control systems, including supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) and embedded devices. SCADA systems monitor and control remote terminal units and equipment that may also have date-sensitive embedded systems. Virtually all of the SCADA systems and many of the devices use embedded microprocessors and systems that may have, or are known to have, Year 2000 problems. All phases of the petroleum production cycle--oil and gas extraction, refining, transportation, and delivery--use control systems and equipment that are subject to Year 2000 failures (p. 2)... While the domestic oil and gas industries are addressing the Year 2000 problem, little is known about the Year 2000 readiness of foreign oil suppliers. The Oil and Gas Working Group has a subgroup collecting Year 2000 information on foreign oil suppliers, but the group has no plans to issue a country-by-country assessment (p. 3)... Of the companies responding to the Working Group’s survey, Year 2000 readiness for embedded systems was not expected to be achieved until the last half of 1999 for • 26 percent of oil industry • 31 percent of the interstate gas pipelines • 25 percent of the investor-owned gas distribution companies • 43 percent of the publicly owned gas distribution companies (p. 27)...
1999-05-20	Ed Yardeni förutspår fortfarande recession	Det är snart juni 1999. Utifrån de fakta som går att få fram angående företagens framsteg kommer dessas ansträngningar inte att räcka ända fram. Yardeni har undersökt amerikanska storföretag. Situationen är värre utanför USA, säger han. Too Close To Call. It is widely believed that the United States is ahead of other countries in preparing our computer systems to recognize that 01/01/00 is the first day of 2000, not 1900. It is widely assumed that American companies, especially the bigger ones, are most likely to get this job done in time. This might be a bad assumption. Despite assurances by most large US-based companies that they will be ready for the century date change, very few were actually ready at the end of last year. According to the disclosure reports they filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during the fourth quarter of 1998, most large companies expect to be done with their Y2K projects sometime during the second half of 1999. The data provided by the largest companies suggest that they were just half way through their projected Y2K budgets at the start of this year. Even more disturbing is that a March 1999 survey of 1,600 large Canadian companies found that only 18% expected to be ready at the end of April. Last May, this same survey found that 15% reported that they were ready at that time for Y2K. Is it possible that the proportion of large companies that are prepared for the century date change increased by only three percentage points in the past year in Canada? If so, are the Canadian results a good proxy for the situation in the United States? I suspect so, especially since Canadian company managers have been at least as aware and alarmed about Y2K as their American counterparts. Even if the data understate the actual progress of American and Canadian companies— even if they sprint to the finish line just in time—Y2K is not a race we want to win alone in North America. If our biggest companies are still struggling to finish the job, there are bound to be lots of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), especially overseas, that simply fail to complete their projects. The consequences for global supply chains are likely to be very disruptive, and likely to cause a global recession... More specifically, at the end of 1998, the S&P 500 companies had spent 53% of their projected Y2K budgets, up from 42% during the third quarter (Exhibit 1 on page 2). It’s possible that a company might be reasonably ready after having spent less than 100% of the projected budget. However, I doubt that 53% is equivalent to all set and ready to go into the new millennium. Of the 372 S&P 500 companies that reported the data, I found only 44 companies, or 12%, that claimed to have spent 75% or more of their budgets at the end of last year. I continue to assume that there is a good correlation between the percent of budget spent and remediation progress. There are arguments both for and against this assumption. Some conservatively managed companies may be overestimating their total budgets. However, I found that the total of all projected budgets had actually increased by a rather significant 26% between the fourth quarter of 1997 and the third quarter of 1998...
1999-05-19	Cap Gemini: Storföretagen halkar efter	The largest companies in the nation continue to fall behind their schedules for Year 2000 repairs, and most suspect that their budget estimates for the remaining work are too low, according to a survey in April that was the latest in a closely watched series that began in 1994. About 22 percent say they do not expect to have all of their critical systems tested and ready to adjust when the clock ticks over to Jan. 1, 2000. That is up from 16 percent in November and 12 percent last August. The number of companies that have actually encountered a computer failure stemming from Year 2000 date miscalculations jumped to 72 percent in April from 55 percent in the previous survey, which was completed in November. Eight percent of the 152 Fortune 500 companies and 14 government agencies responding said they had severed relations with a supplier, customer or partner because of Year 2000 problems. This is the first time that such moves have been reported. The surveys, which are sponsored by CAP Gemini America, a New York consulting firm, are carried out by Howard A. Rubin, an information technology researcher based in Pound Ridge, N.Y. The respondents are typically chief information officers or project managers. . . . About 85 percent of those polled said that spending would have to rise beyond current estimates, mostly to support more testing and the creation of emergency command centers and other contingency plans aimed at keeping business running despite any Year 2000 glitches. Projects are slipping past their expected deadlines at 92 percent of the companies. "It's typical information technology," said Prof. Leon A. Kappelman, a software management expert at the University of North Texas. "You don't get any recognition until the last 30 days that your project is going to be late." . . . .
1999-05-19	IEA: Oljeraffinaderier starkt riskutsatta	...Refineries are by design highly complex relying heavily on computers for smooth operation. An extensive survey of a refinery in the UK identified 94 systems requiring investigation for Y2K compliance. Of the systems assessed it was found that three would fail and that two of these three failures would cause a shutdown. Attempting to trace even a small number of potential Y2K problems at a refinery is undeniably a major undertaking. Refining is but a part of the general problem facing oil companies trying to address Y2K issues. It is a technologically intensive industry and companies are likely to operate myriad date sensitive integrated systems. Embedded processors are the main source of this sensitivity and are found in devices such as flow meters, transmitters and smart valves. They are found throughout the oil industry and in all sectors, including drilling platforms, production platforms, pipelines and process plants. In the case of process plants, the devices containing embedded chips are interconnected, making the problem even more complex and increasing the possibility of Y2K failure. A pilot inventory and assessment of a catalytic cracker and co-generation plant in the US revealed 1,035 systems of which 21% were not Y2K compliant and 6% that would lead to serious plant shutdowns or reduced production capabilities. The catalytic cracker would fail, rendering the refinery incapable of making gasoline. Given the widespread use of catalytic crackers in modern refineries, questions must inevitably be raised about their reliability in other refineries. For the co-generation plant 19% of the hardware, 36% of the software and 24% of the custom code was found to be non-compliant. In late 1997 one oil company’s engineers testing valve control equipment in their refineries discovered thousands of terminals controlling the dispensation of oil to have microchips with Y2K problems. All of the chips required replacement, however it was discovered that the replacement chips would not fit on the existing motherboards. It was therefore necessary to order both new chips and motherboards. Worse still, the replacement motherboards were found not to fit the old valves so the valves themselves had to be replaced. This example demonstrates how a Y2K problem can escalate beyond the original fault to include systems that may actually be compliant. An item’s Y2K compliancy is therefore no guarantee that its replacement will not be necessitated by problems arising in other equipment.
1999-05-19	IEA presenterar mörk rapport om energi	Preliminary Findings One of the difficulties encountered in the preparation of this report was the lack of publicly available information on the level of Y2K compliance in the oil industry... Understandably, no company wants to admit to having potential Y2K problems. Consequently much of the material in the public domain is very bland and refers to what a company is doing in very general terms (e.g. inventory, testing, correcting and re-testing), without giving much information on the potential effect on individual business units. Oil companies have little incentive to hang out their dirty laundry. In addition large shares of global oil production and refining are controlled by national oil companies who may feel under little pressure to make any findings public. . . . Given this uncertain background regarding the effect of the Y2K problem on the industry, any conclusions on this subject must inevitably be treated with caution. With this caveat some preliminary findings are laid out below... There is considerable regional variation in the state of Y2K preparedness generally. The poor economic climate of some regions, such as Asia, may lead to corner cutting and fewer resources being devoted to the Y2K problem. Given the complex oil supply chain, better prepared countries could suffer as a result of problems occurring in other regions... Support Infrastructure Could Cause Problems Like any other part of the economy, the oil industry is heavily dependent on the electricity, telecommunications and water utilities. Given that these are highly complex, it is not unreasonable to expect that the oil industry will suffer some difficulties as a result of Y2K problems occurring in these sectors. Many oil refineries have their own electricity generating plants and it may therefore be possible to escape some of the worst consequences of electricity utility failures. However, some impact on the oil industry of utility related failures does appear inevitable. Offshore Oil Production Most at Risk Offshore oil platforms and rigs contain complex equipment and finding all systems that may be susceptible to Y2K problems is likely to be prove difficult. Furthermore, since many of these systems are difficult to reach, not least because some of them are submerged, they inevitably present oil companies with awkward testing difficulties. The pipelines from these offshore platforms to onshore processing and collection facilities also add to the difficulties caused by offshore oil production. Onshore oil production facilities and pipelines are somewhat easier to check for Y2K compliance than their offshore counterparts... Given the above findings, it is imperative that the oil industry concentrates on the preparation of contingency plans. The level of interdependence between regions and industries is particularly high and regardless of individual states of Y2K readiness, it is possible that failures could arise at any stage in the oil supply chain from exploration to consumption. At this point with less than a year to go until the millennium, comprehensive contingency planning is the optimal response to unforeseen problems.
1999-05-17	Dåliga betyg för amerikanska storföretag	Intel, Compaq, General Motors, Ford och Motorola tillhör en grupp företag som ligger efter i 2000-arbetet, enligt konsultföretaget Weiss Ratings. Inga småföretag direkt.
1999-05-17	Atlanta startade för sent - hinner bara åtgärda de allra mest kritiska systemen	Atlanta computer engineers will be working down to the wire to assure that on New Year's Day, city residents can flush their toilets, call police or firefighters in need and count on traffic lights to work. But to protect public safety and other essential functions, they are writing off technology that oils the routine business of City Hall. City officials have all but abandoned attempts to get many of their 3,000 personal computers ready to handle the rollover from 1999 to 2000--the "Y2K bug" that is threatening computer operations worldwide. Faced with setbacks that have put the city months behind its original deadline for Y2K compliance, computer experts are concentrating on essential systems, including public safety, traffic, payroll and waste water treatment. "We have made conscious choices that there are some things that are more important than other things," said Herb McCall, Atlanta's administrative services commissioner, who is spearheading the city's Y2K compliance effort. Although Chick Vossen, an information services manager, said leaving those PCs until after the first of the year "won't make any difference," some outside experts on Y2K computer problems predict there will be fallout. Failure to bring all of the city's PCs into compliance is likely to have a "cascading" impact throughout the system, said Michael Flores, chief executive of Bretton Woods Inc., a consulting firm that advises public and private organizations on Y2K programs. "You've got to take a holistic approach to this thing," Flores said. Even though the primary functions of the non-compliant systems aren't essential, failure to fix those systems would have some impact on critical processes, Flores said. Ron Dolinsky, executive director of the Atlanta-Southeast Region Y2K Solutions Center, warned that the city's non-compliance could have a "ripple effect" on the business community. "I don't think it's a very good situation in a city with half-a-million people to not be ready," said Dolinsky, whose non-profit organization assists small businesses with Y2K problems. Dolinsky thinks the city's experience with Y2K bugs will be "more like confusion than chaos," though, as long as the critical systems are debugged. "When you decide not to do all your PCs citywide, you have to figure there's nothing in the PCs worth saving," said Norman Singer, an attorney representing Information Systems and Networks Inc., the consultant the city fired March 5 in a dispute over money, personnel and the progress of the city's Y2K project.
1999-05-17	Distributionskedjan	Ett citat från artikeln: "Your ability to comply is only as good as your weakest link".
1999-05-16	Y2K - The Seven Circles of Risk	BrightStar Information Technology Group, Inc., har sammanfattat 2000-problemet ganska lättöverskådligt.
1999-05-16	En del städer ignorerar 2000-problem, varnar granskare	USA ligger i den främsta gruppen av länder ifråga om medvetenhet om år 2000-problemet och 2000-säkring. Ändå finns det tydligen städer i USA som inte riktigt fattat ännu. "It is clear that some governments are facing a significant risk," said Petro, who noted "the year 2000 poses a non-negotiable deadline." His report added: "Survey responses indicated that a significant number of government officials may not fully understand the nature and extent of the problem and actions required to resolve it."
1999-05-16	Bankpanik i England? (...och därmed övriga världen)	En annan artikel i The Guardian konstaterar att de brittiska bankerna räknar med att folk kan komma att ta ut mellan 2000 och 3000 brittiska pund var fram till årsskiftet. Pengar som inte finns fysiskt i systemet. Samtal förs nu med Bank of England om hur likviditeten i systemet skall kunna upprätthållas. 2000-3000 brittiska pund motsvarar ungefär 27000-40000 kr. Hur mycket ska Du själv ta ut? Har Du ens funderat i dessa banor?
1999-05-16	Införandet av Euron gick inte så smärtfritt som vi letts till att tro	Handelssystemen på finansmarknaderna kom farligt nära sammanbrott vid senaste årsskiftet. Tvärt emot vad allmänheten letts till att tro. Denna story från ansedda The Guardian visar att vad som hände vid årsskiftet kan liknas vid en krusning på ytan i jämförelse med den storm som y2k kan skapa på marknaderna.
1999-05-16	Företrädare för italiensk myndighet: "Italien kommer att krascha år 2000"	Peter de Jager kanske inte har så fel ändå... angående Italien och Europa. En företrädare för den italienska år 2000-kommittén uttalar sig i starka ordalag. Italien kommer att drabbas mycket hårt av 2000-krisen. Och därmed också övriga Europa. Och Sverige. En italiensk ekonom förutspår ett kraftigt fall i industriproduktionen i Italien under år 2000, med hänvisning till problem hos biltillverkaren Fiat. Inse att börsbubblan snart spricker. Det är en fråga om månader. Det här är från London Times: OFFICIALS given the task of ridding Italy of the millennium bug issued a warning yesterday that, with just over seven months to the deadline, a promised £2 million budget had yet to be approved by parliament - and they still had no powers to force companies and government departments to comply. "Italy is going to crash, and we are going to be crucified," Romano Oneda, the education expert on Italy's Year 2000 Committee, said. "We are supposed to make things go so smoothly that nobody would realise there was ever a problem. Instead we will be the scapegoats. We have only consultative powers, and no one is listening to us." Roberto Di Martino, a computer software expert on the committee, said "even now no executive wants to tell his company they have to spend both time and money on this". Augusto Leggio, whose task is to persuade the transport and telecommunications sectors to face up to Y2K, said the problem was "so vast there is no point in getting hysterical". He said the Interior Ministry, which controls police and immigration services, hoped to guarantee most essential services by the end of this year, but would not be fully compliant until July 2000. "I don't think they have quite grasped what this is all about," one official said. Planners in Italy and Vatican City are only now beginning to realise that they face a nightmare. The tourist industry is losing millions of pounds because of the Balkans war, and it is feared that many planning to see in the Holy Year in the Eternal City will go elsewhere because of Y2K. "Imagine the dawn of the new millennium", said Il Messaggero, the Rome daily. "Twenty six million people have come to the Eternal City. But traffic lights and automatic banking machines are out of order, the airport is in chaos, food and water are running out. There could be panic and disorder." The Government has, belatedly, begun broadcasting radio advertisements explaining that the bug affects any system storing the year as two digits rather than four. According to one survey, only 2 per cent of Italians have heard of the problem. The Y2K campaign has been put in the hands of Professor Ernesto Bettinelli, an energetic former junior Minister for Public Administration. But he continues to teach constitutional law at Padua University while running the committee, which started work in February. It has been allotted Ministry of Tourism rooms, with a staff of six, three telephones and one secretary, and draws on the unpaid services of 22 experts in such fields as banking, traffic control and food distribution. . . . But Valeria Severini, an economist, said the dangers were being underestimated. "Fiat's computer system went down for six days recently, even though they had spent £50 million on a debugging programme." She predicted a big fall in industrial production next year. The bureaucracy is grinding to a halt, social security and pension payments being made by hand. Many hospitals have taken little or no action. But some point out that Italian life is already "organised chaos", so if urban support systems collapse, no one will notice. Said Beppe Severgnini of Corriere della Sera: "We have a gift for transforming any crisis into one big party."
1999-05-11	Peter de Jager: "Frankrike och Tyskland mycket illa ute ...och glöm Italien."	Peter de Jager anses vara Gurun med stort G kring y2k-problematiken. 1993 skrev han en artikel som var den första att på allvar belysa problemet med övergången till år 2000. De Jager var starkt pessimistisk fram tills för ca 8 månader sedan, då han svängde, och har numera anknutit sig till "bump in the road"-förespråkarna. Men logiken i hans resonemang haltar grovt, tycker jag. Det luktar påtryckningar från den amerikanska regeringen lång väg. OM de Jager fortfarande hävdat att risken för en kollaps i banksektorn var överhängande så skulle den genomslagskraft som de Jager som person besitter sannolikt vara nog för att skapa panik på marknaden. Regeringarna gör allt för att minimera oron inför år 2000. Det är logiskt i sig att de gör så, men det löser inte problemet. Det snarare sopar det under mattan. Smutsen kommer alltid fram förr eller senare. Den länkade artikelns innehåll är en motsägelse av stora mått. Vad Peter de Jager menar är alltså att stora delar av Europa kommer att kollapsa 1 januari 2000, men USA kommer att klara sig?! Det går inte ihop. Dagens ekonomier är alltför sammankopplade för att ett långvarigt avbrott i flödet av information, varor och tjänster skulle lämna stora delar av världen opåverkade. USA kommer att drabbas om Europa drabbas. Och drabbas Europa så allvarligt som de Jager påstår så lär situationen vara minst sagt kritisk i andra delar av världen (Kina, Indien, Ryssland, Latinamerika, Mellanöstern, Östeuropa etc). Allt fler amerikaner börjar inse detta nu. År 2000-problemet rör oss alla. "France is behind the eight ball," de Jager said. "They have focused on the Euro. They're not as far as the rest of Europe. They hate hearing that assessment. They get indignant when they hear that. But, quite frankly, that's where I think they are. They're behind us, and it's going to be quite interesting to see what happens to their companies. The prep work has not been done in France. Germany's even worse. And forget Italy. I have no idea what's going to happen to Italy. They are so far behind -- way further behind France and Germany. The minister of finance said several years ago, 'Y2K's not a problem. It's a long weekend. We'll fix it then.' He's on record as saying that. They have been totally oblivious to this. I just don't know what's going to happen in those places. ... My work has been available to everybody. It's all on the Internet. And these folks have just ignored it."
1999-05-11	Hur illa kan det egentligen gå för banksystemet?	Rubriker från det citerade kapitlet ur Michael Hyatts bok (bara för en indikation om vad det handlar om): The Coming Monetary Collapse, The System Is Inherently Fragile, Public Confidence, The Fractional Reserve Banking System, Mix the Two Together, The Money Supply, The Dominos Are Already Falling, Global Deflation, The Derivatives Revolution, The Stock Market Bubble, Y2K Could Be the Last Straw...
1999-05-09	När kraschar marknaden?	Det här är ett par inlägg från Ed Yourdons debattforum: By about September millions of Americans will be thinking..."I better take my money out of the bank before everybody else does". But a hundred million Americans will think the same thing! This will hit the news and start a run on the banks! These same people will then also exit the stockmarket, which will cause a giant crash! Not merely to 7500, but probably to 3000 or 2000, or even lower! Once it goes, it goes! There will be no stopping it by Clintons "plunge protection team". His team will not even try, because they know it will be futile! Once it goes, every single investor will be trying to bail out and will not wait until Feb. 2000. They know that if they wait until Feb. 2000, they will lose it all! Because of this, the market will crash in giant leaps and not a little at a time! All those investors who have positions in the market with put options will make a bundle. I'm one of them. Every month I buy more Put positions! It's a chance of a lifetime! -- freddie, May 06, 1999. Och så här säger signaturen "David": Some have commented that the recent rise in stocks is due to foreign money fleeing third world countries seeking safety in countries known to be further advanced in remediations. The whammy is that this means currency risk (and indirectly bond market risk) for the foreign money. At some point they will recognize that they are losing money by keeping it in US Dollar denominated assets. Then they will sell the $ assets, sell their $$$'s and buy .. ??? Possibly gold or silver or back into their own country's basic infrastructure (farms, oil, minerals)??? Who knows but the effect will be to start the down hill slide of US$ value and markets. At this time the US bond market is failing in major ways and has reached the point where people are losing major money. Derivatives will get wiped out (the derivatives commitments are HUGE in comparison to the total GDP of the world). The whipsawing will increase and defaults will cascade. The next 9 to 12 months will be one of shear terror for the wealthy of this world. Try to stay out of the way of it. Being stampled is no great experience. BTW 'limit down' and 'limit up' may become new phrases to the public at large. What it means is that the market has gone one way or the other over a certain limit and that no more trading is allowed for that day. If you are trying to trade (either commodities or stocks) you will not be allowed to do so on the open market. This will be like locking people into a burning house. Particularly those who are short (have borrowed and sold with commitment to return shares or lots later) in a 'limit up' market. Their losses can bancrupt them overnight. In a short positiopn there is no limit to losses whereas in a 'long' position you stand to lose only what you paid and no more. Its a tricky world out there. Like I said, the next few months will be very interesting. Just stay out of the way. -- David, May 07, 1999. Här är förresten en intressant beskrivning av hur man uppfattade läget innan kraschen 1929. Slående likheter, tycker jag. Och här är ett par krönikor om marknaden och förtroende: 1 och 2.
1999-05-09	90% av mjukvaran i Kina är piratkopierad	Det här är från South China Morning Post. Rubriken i artikeln är ett understatement. Ett hot mot Kina är ett hot också mot Kinas grannländer och handelspartners. "Some 90 per cent of China's software, including most of the programs used in government offices and state-owned enterprises, is pirated, making it difficult to unravel and receive help from companies that originally wrote the programs," Erickson says.
1999-05-09	FAA har problem	För sju månader sedan sade Jane Garvey från FAA att alla datorsystemen hos amerikanska luftfartsverket, inklusive flygledarsystem, var åtgärdade. Detta var en ren och skär lögn, har det visat sig. Nu är man klara till 90% och räknar med att de ska vara helt klara 30 juni. Säger man. Ingen lär bli förvånad om de den 30 juni skjuter deadlinen till 30 september. Och sedan...? OM systemen skulle krascha 1 januari 2000 är det meningen att man ska gå tillbaka till manuell drift! Det är backup-planen. Säg det till en flygledare på Arlanda och du kommer att mötas av gapskratt. FAA har inte bara missat de deadlines som sattes upp för länge sedan, de har också vilselett det amerikanska folket, säger Y2knewswire i en kommentar. Är det lika illa ställt med svenska Luftfartsverket?
1999-05-09	"Y2K kommer att spräcka Internetaktie-bubblan"	"Njut så länge det varar", säger Esther Dyson, Internetföretagsguru. Övergången till år 2000 kommer att förändra sentimentet inför tekniken hos vanligt folk när de inser att vårt samhälle är mer sårbart än de trodde.
1999-05-07	70% av de 1000 största amerikanska företagen riskerar att inte vara 2000-säkrade 1 januari 2000, säger konsultjätten Triaxsys	Finns det i denna rapport någon enda anledning till optimism inför årsskiftet??? Alan Greenspan säger att 99% procent "compliance" inte räcker... Om 70% av företagen missar deadlinen vad händer då?
1999-05-06	Produktivitetsökning med 272%???	Måste säga att jag är imponerad av kanadensarna. De har kommit på ett sätt att öka produktiviteten med 272 procent! Enligt David Eddy, krönikör på Westergaards site, var 2000-säkringen 15 procent för ca 1 år sedan. Nu är den 18 procent. Men i september 1999 (dvs på fyra månader) ska man ha nått 67 procent! Minst sagt imponerande!
1999-05-05	Det är väl det här som kallas Moment 22?	...eller kanske mer ett val mellan pest eller kolera. International Energy Agency, IEA, brottas med ett ganska stort problem. Agera eller inte agera...? Om de visar handlingskraft och börjar varna för samhällsstörningar, kanske detta får motsatt verkan och leder till panik på finansmarknaderna. Om de inte agerar kan det bli panik i alla fall. Fast lite senare. Och med värre resultat. Fast å andra sidan... de har ju "redan" hållit ett "seminarium" om y2k-problemet... Så allt är frid och fröjd... Eller? "We cannot speculate at this time on whether there is anything the IEA might do collectively, for instance, in an effort to calm markets or respond to supply disruptions. Our concern is that, unless carefully orchestrated, any such efforts can just as easily have the opposite effect on market attitudes if our preparations are read as a clear indication that there is a serious problem, perhaps perversely stimulating consumer disquiet."
1999-05-05	Var har pengarna tagit vägen?	De rapporterade framstegen i y2k-frågan för de amerikanska myndigheterna matchar inte på långa vägar de medel som de har tilldelats. Vad har de använts till? Alla har järnkoll på de svenska myndigheterna i detta avseende, eller hur? The GAO report available below identifies and tracks how federal departments and agencies have spent Y2K funds appropriated by Congress. In many cases, federal agencies didn't track how they used Y2K funds, spent the funds on non-Y2K activities, or just outright refused to supply information to GAO. The most startling discovery GAO made is that 9 major federal agencies didn't even bother to keep track of how they spent dollars specifically appropriated to fix the Y2K problem. Three agencies – Agriculture, State, and Treasury – refused to even respond to GAO's repeated request for information. In fact, much of the information GAO did receive was overly vague and unacceptably incomplete. Additionally, 5 other agencies merely estimated how much of the money was spent on Y2K compliance. As far as we're concerned, when the hard-earned dollars of American taxpayers are designated for a specific purpose, guesses are not good enough. Most outrageously, GAO discovered that some funds were spent on non-Y2K activities. For example, GAO reported that: "included in Treasury's $253 million was $92 million for non-Y2K information technology investments." Perhaps it's no surprise Treasury did not respond to GAO.
1999-05-05	Officiellt dokument från amerikansk myndighet: "Bunkra upp förnödenheter för (minst) en månad"	U.S. Information Agency, USIA, har följande rekommendation till allmänheten inför årsskiftet: "Be preventive and stockpile necessary consumer items for at least a month, and ask questions at work about what their company is doing do deal with Y2K problems".
1999-05-05	Koskinen varnar ännu en gång	Här ska jag frångå min egen norm. Texten är inte tagen direkt från källan, utan det är Gary Norths kommentar till informationen i länken. At the April 22 meeting in Singapore, John Koskinen, head of the President's Y2K Council, informed delegates from Asian nations and Canada of the looming threats of the millennium bug. He warned them that cross-border contingency plans must soon be formulated. It is clear from his remarks that such plans do not exist yet. He also pointed out that developing countries have yet to begin repairing y2k. The American public hasn't a clue that this is the case. People do not understand that y2k failures will undermine or even destroy the international division of labor. It is too late to fix this. Koskinen knows this, as his remarks indicated: "I recently got a memorandum from a developing country noting that they had now held a series of meetings, and they were ready to begin with their assessments. And my first response was, it obviously is a little late to start." He recognizes that in most nations, the work has not begun: "But we are in a stage now where we need to go beyond awareness and focus on action, which is why I think the APEC Y2K Week is an appropriate focus for all of the APEC countries to begin to take additional steps and actions to deal with the Y2K problems. We only have 254 or 253 days to go, depending on which way you count the last day, but even with that short period of time, much work can still be done. Because even if a country cannot finish all of its work in one of the critical sectors that you're going to be discussing, the work has to be done sometime, so it's important not only to start now, but to continue that work through the rest of this year." The victims, meaning six billion people, don't see what is about to happen to their income. He has not departed from the Party Line: big outfits will make it, but small ones won't, despite the fact that big outfits have yet to make it (e.g., the Fortune 1000, according to a recent and unreleased report from Cap Gemini), and small ones can solve it by going back to pen and paper systems. He made it clear that the U.S. government can't bail out local governments in 2000. ". . . we've told our local governments and our state governments that they need to be prepared to handle emergencies on their own, since the federal government can't be everywhere dealing with every problem in light of the large number of problems that we are likely to have." But most local governments in the U.S. have still done almost nothing to prepare for y2k disruptions. He even stressed the obvious, which the Red Cross and FEMA have conveniently igored with their 72-hour hurricane scanario: "Each of these emergency centers is very good at dealing with the standard emergency, which is usually very localized. But what they do not have significant experience in is dealing with a number of otherwise manageable events taken by themselves, which create a major challenge when they occur all at once." But the underlying theme was this: governments will face an international crisis when the public figures out that a true disaster is immiment. Governments must do something about this. He got to the bottom line: bank runs. The 300-year experiment in central banking is about to come up empty. The governments of this century have been re-built on the model of the Bank of England (1694), and that model is completely computerized. It is the ultimate just-in-time system: insufficient inventories. Now it is facing its greatest test. Koskinen knows this. "We also need to share perspectives on how to deal with more general problems that I think all of us face. A growing problem confronting every country is the risk of overreaction by the public, as Mr. Shiina mentioned. It's clear that in the absence of information, people will assume the worst. It's also clear in any country if millions of people change their normal economic activities all at once, we'll have significant problems, even if all of the systems work just fine. No country can afford a lack of confidence that leads to runs on their financial institutions, hoarding of basic supplies, and increased fear." So, what is his recommended solution? Tell the public about all the great contingency plans governments have. (I am not making this up.) "Therefore, it's important for all of us to share as much information as we can with the public about the state of our preparedness. . . ." Their preparedness? It's all over but the shouting. This is from the United States Information Agency of the U.S. government (May 4).
1999-05-05	Hela Frankrikes elförsörjning hotad - franska kärnkraftverk samhällsfara!	Frankrike är mest beroende av kärnkraft i hela världen. Det intressanta i den här artikeln är inte bara säkerhetsaspekten, utan också att själva kraftflödet är hotat. Safety at France's network of nuclear power stations could be jeopardized by the millennium computer bug, the French Institute of Nuclear Safety (IPSN) said in a report Tuesday. The state organization said nuclear power stations were threatened not just by possible failures from their own internal computer systems, but also by the prospect of problems with the general French electricity grid. It said research showed that between 45 and 80 percent of internal systems "could be sensitive" to the arrival of 2000. "Malfunctions of certain computer and automated systems at the power stations could weaken safety levels," the IPSN said, adding that more than 40 percent of the systems needed to be operational to guarantee short-term safety at the plants. France relies more than any other nation on nuclear power and also supplies many of its neighbors with electricity... The IPSN said many people considered a generalized failure across electricity networks in a number of countries was "plausible" with the Y2K bug...
1999-05-05	IATA vägrar publicera lista över osäkrade flygplatser	Om allt är bra och alla y2k-förberedelser går som planerat borde det väl inte vara något som hindrar IATA att publicera en lista på hur statusen är på flygplaterna runt om i världen? Eller?
1999-05-05	Senator Bob Bennett jämför Y2K med Babels Torn	Sen. Bob Bennett compared the Year 2000 computer bug to the biblical Tower of Babel, saying a breakdown in the common language could cause chaos.     "The world speaks a common language called digital code," said Bennett, R-Utah, at the 11th annual Software Technology Conference sponsored by the Department of Defense. "If the connection gets broken, we're back to the Tower of Babel where we cannot talk to each other. We can't trade securities. We can't change currency. We can't exchange information. Everything shuts down."     "People ask me if we're going to be all right," said Bennett, who is chairman of the Senate's Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. "That depends on what `all right' means."     While many industries might be in good condition overall, specific companies might not be. Bennett suggested people check with their own banks, utilities and employers to make sure they are prepared for 2000.
1999-05-03	Assidomäns 2000-projekt kraftigt försenat	Assidomän Kraftliner har avbrutit sitt SAP R3-samarbete med IBM. Projektet har dragit ut på tiden och IBM har inte levererat enligt överenskommelse, enligt Assidomän. Konsekvensen blir att Assidomän försenats kraftigt i sitt år 2000-arbete. IBM har sedan fjorton månader tillbaka arbetat med att installera SAP R3 på Assidomän Kraftliner i Piteå. Men för drygt en vecka sedan avbröt Assidomän samarbetet med omedelbar verkan trots att projektet är långt ifrån avslutat.
1999-05-01	SIA inser faran med y2k	Securities Industry Association (SIA) vet vad som står på spel med anledning av år 2000. Varför skulle annars deras website vara fullmatad med information om 2000-frågan? Det kan börja storma på finansmarkanderna redan under 1999.
1999-05-01	Senator Chris Dodd höjer ett varningens finger angående hamnanläggningar runt om i världen "Ships that experience Y2K-related failures could begin to clog ports, denying accessibility to other ships and creating serious logistical problems."	Hamnanläggningarna runt om i världen är kanske nyckeln till frågan om recessionen blir mycket djup eller bara djup. Olja, olja, olja... With the exception of North America and Northern Europe, the actual Y2K readiness of the international ports remains a virtual unknown. When a ship arrives in port, Y2K related failures could prevent cargo from being unloaded and oil from being pumped out of tankers. Y2K difficulties in ports could include the failure of the giant cranes used to offload containers from ships and could also create congestion. According to the International Energy Agency, one oil company found that a dockside crane refused to operate because an embedded chip determined that it was overdue for a technical inspection... The world oil supply faces a series of Y2K risks from the well in the ground to the gas station in your neighborhood. In addition to the immediate Y2K problems that oil companies face, the readiness of the shipping industry and international ports presents an even more difficult challenge. A breakdown in the international shipping industry could have a crippling effect on the oil industry. More than 80,000 visits are made to U.S. ports by over 7,000 foreign vessels in any given year. And yet we have little information on the readiness of these ships and foreign ports. Like other global sectors the Committee has examined, we find that the oil industry is highly dependent upon maritime shipping. Oil tankers for example depend on reliable on-board navigation, communication and safety systems, all of which are vulnerable to Y2K problems. In 1998, Shell Oil examined one of its crude carriers, which was built in 1996. Y2K testing revealed failures in seven areas, including radar system mapping, ballast monitoring and ship performance monitoring. According to Shell, "Not one of these failures would stop the ship, but they might if they all happened together." Overall, when Shell assessed their fleet, it found approximately 3,000 embedded chips on its 50 vessels. Embedded microchips play an important economic role in modern shipping because they allow even the largest tankers to operate with very small crews. The highly automated functions make it difficult for a small crew to manually operate the ship in an emergency. Even if oil tanker crews can "work around" their Y2K problems, the crews could quickly become overworked, compromising safety. Passenger cruise and container ships are more reliant on technology than oil tankers. Y2K failures on these ships would be even more difficult to correct. Ships that experience Y2K-related failures could begin to clog ports, denying accessibility to other ships and creating serious logistical problems... The shipping companies' failure to prepare for Y2K has put not only their individual businesses at risk but also the livelihood of their employees. We have seen evidence of this "flight to quality" in other industries and it will likely continue into the Year 2000. But while BP and other companies might be able to obtain Y2K ready charter vessels, they cannot make international ports compliant. This will take a concerted worldwide outreach to raise awareness and promote realistic contingency plans...
1999-05-01	Japan börjar inse allvaret	Japan importerar 100% av sitt oljebehov. Det finns inget land i världen som är så beroende av fungerade sjöfart och en fungerande oljeindustri. Allvaret i situationen börjar sjunka in i japanernas sinnen nu. Japan and other developed nations should discuss ways to help oil-producing countries of the Middle East prepare for possible year 2000 computer problems, the joint chairmen of an inter-party panel investigating the millennium bug told Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi on Friday. Keiji Furuya and Yoshio Suzuki, chairmen of the year 2000 investigation team of the Liberal Democratic and the Liberal parties, made the recommendation in a meeting with Obuchi at his official residence. The two said Japan's oil supply could be affected if computer problems occur and suggested the topic be brought up in June at the Group of Seven summit in Cologne,Germany. (Reported in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun April 24, 1999)
1999-05-01	Var står egentligen Peter de Jager?	När han skrev sin berömda artikel 1993 om 2000-problemet, var han en av de första att belysa allvaret med 2000-frågan. Fram till hösten 1998 var Peter de Jager pessimistisk om följderna av övergången till år 2000. Men så blev han plötsligt positiv i slutet av förra året. Men anar vi tvekan nu igen? Nu vet han inte vad som kommer att hända. ...Now, he feels that the corner was turned some time in 1997. By then the financial and telecommunications industries were well on their way to dealing with their software, and other organizations -- even governments -- were starting to move. By the end of last year, Mr. de Jager had concluded that the back of the problem had been broken. And that's when the trouble really started. A few weeks ago, he posted on his Web site an article, titled Doomsday Avoided, in which he said that catastrophy scenarios were no longer apt. He explained that he had long since stopped worrying about the financial industry -- "my money will remain in the bank" -- and that he expected no disruption of telecommunications service. He expressed concern about the power industry, but he concluded that although the problem had not been solved, "we have avoided the doomsday scenarios." There were, as he puts it, a few dissenting voices. Paul Barker, editor of Computing Canada magazine, was astounded. "Much of the content is questionable and the timing is all wrong," he wrote in an editorial. Fellow Y2K analysts were irritated. "Peter has swung all the way from a doomsday scenario, which probably didn't exist in the first place, to an everything-is-fine scenario, which certainly doesn't exist now," said William Ulrich, president of Tactical Strategy Group of Sequoia, Calif., another Y2K expert. "Of all people, Peter de Jager shouldn't be swinging on a pendulum. He should be balanced somewhere in the middle, giving credible information." Joe Boivin, Mr. de Jager's closest rival as a Y2K prophet in Canada, said the recent comments reflect a narrow Canadian perspective. "Peter may have done himself a big disservice because his credibility has been challenged," said the 20-year veteran of the computer industry who left the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce to start a Web site devoted to the Y2K issue. Mr. Boivin (whom Mr. de Jager dismisses as a "minor player") agrees that there is nothing to support the looming-apocalypse notion for Canada. But he believes that problems overseas could cause riots and that the consequences of this turmoil could roll into Canada by April. . . . Now, what's his bottom line? "I don't know what's going to happen. I know that we run a huge risk because we're dependent on computer systems and they were broke and we've done our best to fix them, but we don't know if we're going to get it all."
1999-05-01	Är Du förberedd på att ha fel om Y2K?	Har Du verkligen satt dig in i 2000-problematiken? Eller litar Du på att rapporterna om att allt är som det ska stämmer? Tänk om allt inte är som det ska? Det är många som har ifrågasatt dessa "happy face"-rapporter under den senaste månaden. Är Du mentalt förberedd om det inte går som Du trodde? Jag är det. Är Du? "Prepared" is a word that means careful planning if you are a business. However, if you're an individual preparing for Y2K, being "prepared" means you're a wacko survivalist ... well, at least that's how the major media portrays us. But whatever way you take it, I consider preparedness as being ready beforehand for a specific event or occasion. I was a Boy Scout. My pocket knife has a can opener on it. So back to the question: "Are you prepared to be wrong about Y2K?" No matter who you are or what you think about Y2K are you ready to be wrong in your conclusions? Let's take the wacko survivalist side first. You know, us family types who are putting away some food and water, maybe a generator, gathering some simple first aid supplies and all that kind of wacky stuff. What if we are wrong? I guess the answer lies in how far we go to calm our fears. If we sell our souls to fear and go all out, have we been careful enough to allow room to be wrong? I know at least three people who have sold out everything and bought small farms. Sounds extreme, doesn't it? Well, not really. In each case they are happier now. Owning that farm is something they always wanted anyway. If they are wrong about Y2K being really bad, they don't care. They did what they would have done anyway.