Stock Investment |
For years, the
financial establishment has promoted the specious notion that valuation
should be reserved for experts. Supposedly, only sell-side brokerage
analysts have the requisite experience and intestinal fortitude to go out
into the churning, swirling market and predict future prices. Valuation,
however, is no abstruse science that can only be practiced by MBAs and
CFAs. Requiring only basic math skills and diligence, any Fool can
determine values with the best of them.
Before you can value a
share of stock, you have to have some notion of what a share of stock is.
A share of stock is not some magical creation that ebbs and flows like the
tide; rather, it is the concrete representation of ownership in a publicly
traded company. If XYZ Corp. has one million shares of stock outstanding
and you hold a single, solitary share, that means you own a millionth of
the company.
Why would someone want to pay you for your millionth?
There are quite a few reasons, actually. There is always going to be
someone else who wants that millionth of the ownership because they want a
millionth of the votes at a shareholder meeting. Although small by itself,
if you amass that millionth and about five hundred thousand of its
friends, you suddenly have a controlling interest in the company and can
make it do all sorts of things, like pay fat dividends or merge with your
company.
Companies buy shares in other companies for all sorts of
reason. Whether it be an outright takeover, in which a company buys all
the shares, or a joint venture, in which the company typically buys enough
of another company to earn a seat on the board of directors, the stock is
always on sale. The price of a stock translates into the price of the
company, on sale for seven and a half hours a day, five days a week. It is
this information that allows other companies, public or private, to make
intelligent business decisions with clear and concise information about
what another company's shares might cost them.
The share of stock
is a stand-in for a share in the company's revenues, earnings, cash flow,
shareholder's equity -- you name it, the whole enchilada. For the
individual investor, however, this normally means just worrying about what
portion of all of those numbers you can get in dividends. The share of
ownership entitles you to a share of all dividends in perpetuity. Even if
the company's stock does not currently have a dividend yield, there always
remains the possibility that at some point in the future there could be
some sort of dividend.
Finally, a company can simply repurchase
its own shares using its excess cash, rather than paying out dividends to
shareholders. This effectively drives up the stock price by providing a
buyer as well as improving earnings per share (EPS) comparisons by
decreasing the number of shares outstanding. Mature, cash-flow positive
companies tend to be much more liberal in this day and age with share
repurchases as opposed to dividends, simply because dividends to
shareholders get taxed twice.
This series of articles will take
you through the major methods for valuing companies. The main categories
of valuation I will elucidate are valuations based on earnings, revenues,
cash flow, equity, dividends and subscribers. Finally, I will sum this all
up in a conclusion that positions these valuations in the broader context
of fundamental analysis and gives you a sense of how to apply these in
your own investment efforts.
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